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Bonkers99
Whilst a lot of costs are indeed up 50% don't forget that a big chunk of cost saving is likely to be achieved by using the XRT sorters. Their use will be likely to cut the cost of the the plant required very significantly, so big outflows of cash at the onset and thereafter will be removed from the NPV calculation. Hopefully, the saving both in capex and in opex will offset to a considerable degree the impact of cost inflation since 2017. All will hopefully be revealed shortly!
Thanks VII - I've no idea on the valuation of the other items but yes, as far as the NPV goes, it's out of the window with a likely +50% cost base but with tin @ 32k instead of 22k perhaps that comes out at least even after all at around $200m.
The share price for Tungsten West is up 27% today
Cheers Vii, will have a nosey as it's near to me
Argylerich
LovelyBoy is referring to the Tungsten West plc (TUN) tungsten/tin/aggregates project at Hemerdon, near Plymouth, which is awaiting the outcome of the public consultation over the Environment Agency's proposal to grant the operating permit.
The cut off date for comments is about 2 weeks away now. The permit has had the effect of creating a logjam in the process of obtaining finance to get up an running again. If the permit is granted there will be a huge sigh of relief from investors / those wishing to create a supply of a critical metal for the Western world
Vii what's the Plymouth project please?
Hi LovelyBoy
Good to hear from you. It is a case of "least said, soonest mended". I agree the outlook is really good. Not only good for investors, but the whole project is worthwhile for Cornwall, and the UK.
The news out of the Plymouth area is also very encouraging. At last. Everyone has high hopes now for the final piece of the jigsaw which will unlock an attractive picture. That may help sentiment in all SW miners.
Hi Vii.
Hope you are well. Just curious to know if you have a view on why RW resigned. Seems odd given the future and potential here.
ATB LB
PS the Plymouth project has seen some good gains recently. Nice to see.
The rate I'm buying these, I won't be far behind Vision Blue Resources.
Gingy - "Personally I don't think this will go into production under Cornish metal. One of the big outfits will swoop in and take us over."
Possible, but Vision Blue Resources- the major shareholder with 25% of the shares,- are a big outfit and have recently raised around $600m so have multiples of the firepower needed to see this into production. The upside is enormous and they know it having BoD representation. Selling out now before the expected tin price run is unlikely IMO.
Personally I don't think this will go into production under Cornish metal. One of the big outfits will swoop in and take us over.
Bonkers99 Also to consider, the value of CUSN is not just indicated by the NPV in the PEA. To that we should add, the value of UD , Gwinear etc and the value in the holding in and relationship with Cornish Lithium.
Always the voice of reason and information VII, long may it continue, thankyou
Bonkers99 "Can anyone float an expected NPV number for the PEA?"
Outsiders cannot, No. But here are some pointers.
The 2017 PEA* showed an NPV of $130.5m assuming a tin price of $10/lb around $22,000 per tonne.
• Source:- Https://minedocs.com/21/South-Crofty-PEA-02162017.pdf
In the sensitivity analysis (p22) it showed that if the tin price rose to $11/lb around $24,200/tonne- a 10% increase- the NPV rose to $188.1m i.e. an increase in NPV of 44%. i.e. highly sensitive.
Now the tin price is $32,320/ tonne or 47% up on the 2017 central estimate. All other things being equal, which they are not, would suggest an adjusted NPV of around $400m.
Much has changed since 2017 including the cost of building and running the plant, interest rates and thus the discount factor for the NPV calculation. So the $400m appears to need to be adjusted down considerably.
However there are also a number of other positive changes.
Because the indicated and inferred resources have increased very significantly it is reasonable to assume mine life has increased or the throughput could be increased. This would move the NPV up. See below***
Furthermore it looks as if the cut-off grade could be reduced as XRT ore sorters have been trialed by CUSN with very encouraging results. This would help to further increase the resources and boost the NPV. The same machines are likely to reduce the size of the plant required to process the ore- helping to reduce initial capex and opex – which also would help the NPV upwards.
And the discovery of the Wide Formation and Great Flat Lode Splay may well add to the resources, when fully assessed, which again would either enable CUSN to increase throughput or extend the mine life, both of which are likely to enhance NPV.
------------------------------------------------------------
***In the 2017 PEA the indicated and inferred resources were for the lower & upper mine respectively :
Indicated 1660+257 kt Inferred 738 +464kt
Total 2,398 + 721kt =3,119 kt
Indicated and Inferred at 5/2/24 for the upper and lower mines
Were :-
Indicated 2,896 kt +260 kt Inferred 2,626 kt + 465kt
Total 5,522 kt + 725kt = 6,247 kt
A significant 100% uplift, with the likelihood of more to come from the Wide Formation and GFL Splay.
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Not long to wait for the actual figures in a new PEA. Good Luck everyone.
Rooky,
My view is that everyone knows this has been and will continue to be a long play.
In the current economic climate, investors are looking ING for quick returns, so this is not attractive no matter how undervalued current investors think it might be.
New investors only likely to jump in on news and likely happy to pay higher for more certainty knowing further gains can be made.
Meanwhile everything is going to plan and looking good. I'm happy now at my target to hold and wait
Can anyone float an expected NPV number for the PEA?
Regardless how the market reacts now I've just topped up and will wait till the"tin and the other metals mentioned start leaving the mine" as you're saying. You can't lose here, imho.
Rooky
Very much agree with you .
Cavendish released a brokers note this morning reiterating that the sum of the parts valuation of CUSN is 25p, so should see some healthy upside on sp
This share is so far under the radar, that you wonder is a thick seam of gold, and a several Cullinan size diamonds were found, the SP would still not move.
I appreciate that when (not if) tin and the other metals mentioned start leaving the mine, the SP will zoom upward, so not worried, just somewhat puzzled, as surely now is the time to get into this share.
If I had a few quid spare, I would be increasing my current holding.
RNS out...
Looks positive on first review.
Good luck all.