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Fastduck
100% agreed , and very good post
However I believe the potential upside is huge here just not fully realised yet despite the challanges you mentioned
I am expecting 160 before Christmas and January results will be excellent with Vaccine showing remarkable results and working.
The only part I couldn't fully understand in your post was with regards to SED which is a complete different sector to CPC so couldn't comprehend that comparsion as I can name 10 different stock which done far better than SED and continue to perform (while SED dropped since you posted)
Unless I totally misunderstood what you tried to say
Wish you all the best
CPC is a hold for me and my exit is at least 300 and I think we will achieve that within 12 months easy
3 bagger from the current level
GLA
IMHO
DYOR
Hi Stocky
You are welcome to express your own opinion, am I going to be upset if your dreams come true? No way.
The good news is that serious illness and deaths have stalled. Most of the problems that CPC face, however, have not changed. Driver shortages are causing problems with food supplies in hospitality and forecast to get worse. Staffing problems are not improving. CEO Clive Watson has called for a 2-3 year visa to allow staff to come to the UK to work in hospitality. Even Tim Martin of Wetherspoons has backed him up. Booster shots have to be given at least 6 months after the second vaccination, meaning some over 50s might not get theirs before Christmas.
CPC have good management, they will cope the best they can. I'll stick with my 130p+ target until the January Trading Update. Not much downside risk from current levels in any case, therefore no worry, will be holding onto my shares. 200p+ will come eventually. Will have topped up before then,( I hope).
In the meantime this is the previous management's website for the new acquisition.
https://www.cliftonvillehotel.co.uk
It has a good reputation for locally caught fish on the menus. The menu hasn't been changed the last few days, hopefully that is a sign of a staffing problem.
30 bedrooms, apparently each has a sea view of sorts
Incidentally the hotel was on offer at £1.8m, therefore, CPC managed to get £100k off the price.
GLA
With regard to shares doubling in price. I noticed yesterday that SED managed to do that in just over 2 months. I think they have more chance of doubling again in your 6-8 month timeframe. Take a look.
Fast
So do you think if you double your investment here in less than 6-8 months from current level (IMHO) is not exciting enough? That is shorter term/medium in investment world
Where else do you think you can achieve that which you said can be more exciting ?
Just curious to learn what you think is a exciting investment?
Good post though and I agree with some part of your post but I think you have not done enough research on CPC or general hospitality market post covid
otherwise wouldn't have thought this way
Easy money to be made here and I wouldn't go anywhere for the next 6 month at least.
IMHO
GLA
Fast
Thanks mate, nice post
I disagree with some part of your post
For example, mature people will avoid going to crowded places, actually complete opposite mature who are tired of staying in with the introduction of 3rd booster jab they will have ever more excuses to go out and enjoy if anything will be a surge of matures travelling and take a advantage of hospitality sector.
Beside why should the place be crowded necessary! ? Their properties are huge and well ventilated and adopted to their covid needs more than anywhere else actually after their modernisation during the lock down.
So I actually totally disagree, if anything a very exciting times here and Fast move towards 200 by the end of this year that would almost double my investment with my current average here.
You mentioned to invest else where shorter term, would be interesting to know where you were thinking which can produce a better return than here.?
Thanks for your post
Stocky
Stocky - I am hoping that there will be no more lockdowns or even restrictions imposed on the leisure industry this winter. In the event of a much higher infection rate this winter, however, it is quite likely that some mature customers will make the decision to avoid crowded drinking and eating establishments. That could put a damper on overall CPC revenues. Though could also mean higher numbers on the Mon-Wed trade.
In my opinion investors looking for excitement should be investing elsewhere. CPC are a well run company, focusing on the quality end of the leisure market. Covid-19 is an unfortunate interruption to the company's progress. The current sp is attractive for those who are seeking a decent return over the long term. An investment, ideally parked in an ISA. With no worries about checking the price everyday.
Fast
GOOD post thanks
But
There will be no lock down of how we experienced before
I think that is behind us with booster jab for above 50
The vaccine is working so well and data currently support that and this means a continues confidance in hospitality market and CPC is exceptionally cheap at the moment
My view is it will be rush buy for this stock once people start realise the value and healthy balance sheet and most importantly how cheap it is at the moment.
I am expecting this to hit above 200 by Christmas and I truly believe this is a supper bargain at the moment
I added loads more at 110 and will add again if even go lower
Money to be made here IMHO as this is a hidden gem which soon be discovered
All the best everyone
GLA
IMHO
Yesterday's H1 results fairly predictable considering the lockdown restrictions during the period. Thanks to prudent operational changes and Government help the unavoidable first half loss is manageable, as it could have been far worse.
Not much in the way of forward guidance for the second half. CPC have probably been advised to limit optimism, due to the possibility of a winter lockdown or the re-imposition of trading restrictions. Nevertheless plans are underway for Christmas with menus organized. The Hoste in Norfolk already has the Christmas Day menu online for booking. The next update will be in January. Assuming that there have been no restrictions imposed on CPC trading, am confident the sp will be at least 130p before the rns is issued. The detail of the announcement will no doubt guide the price from there.
I for one thought the interims read and with the new acquisition surprised to see this in the red.
Good news today regarding the development of the possibility of beating the worst of Covid-19 with a nasal spray. Getting through this winter could see the end of economy wrecking lockdowns. The key factor being that the nanobody molecules generated by Covid-19 particle infected Llamas can be laboratory manufactured.
https://scitechdaily.com/llama-antibodies-have-significant-potential-as-frontline-covid-19-treatment-simple-nasal-spray/
Cannot see any reason why they should be discouraging. Even the weather has favoured popping out to the boozer and, especially, sitting out in the evening enjoying a drink or three. Plus I can see a bit of takeover action at some point.
I've just seen Andy Hornby CEO of Restaurant Group interviewed on Ian King this morning. He said they had a staycation boom in August. Apparently they were doing takeaway before openings. He's hoping for a normal Christmas.
Likely H2 for CPC will be good, am sure they will be keen to give some guidance. If lockdowns are avoided, might make a small profit for the year.
Restaurant Group sees strong like-for-like sales. Sales £216m vs £227m for 27 weeks to July 4th. And should be stronger since then.
Brewhouse and Kitchen (23 pubs) sales up 16% vs 2019 for the last 8 weeks. Positive performance across its entire estate.
I just topped up City Pub at 115p as I'm encouraged by these pieces of relevant news.
...end of this month should be encouraging, bearing in mind how little time properly open. their City Centre property values will take longer to even out but hopefully will be ahead y this time next year.
Sorry for delay in replying Stockready1 - City Pub would spend £5m just to buy the Paddington Hotel pub. The company wants to expand, the alternative is borrowing though that is likely to be more expensive currently, for a company under a threat of not being able to trade due to lockdown.
Yesterday's vote for an increase in National Insurance including employer contributions is a another financial blow to the leisure industry, recovering from having been hit hard by the pandemic. I can't see City Pub rushing in to buy anything at present until valuations have been fully adjusted to reflect the new economic reality.
As far as the CPC share price is concerned, the interim results for the 26 weeks upto 27 June, will be released on 23 September. They won't be impressive due to lockdown, in one form or another, for the whole of this period. I will be looking for evidence that the company has managed to keep costs under control. Also confirmation that since pubs have been able to open fully since July 19, that the outlook for H2 trading will be numbers positive. Obviously will come with the proviso regarding future lockdowns being avoided. On top of that, we have the worry of the impact of staff shortages. Have City Pub been affected? With the boom in staycations the Norfolk based Hotel pub, The Hoste Arms, should have been booming, were they affected?
Since last week and allowing for the latest developments, has your opinion for the short term future of the CPC price been tempered? Am still waiting for good news, 23 September's announcement will have my full attention (unless ELIX report on the same day.)
Fast
Thanks for your comment but I am not sure why you think about placing to raise money !! For what? They have 16m cash in the bank and surely more placing to raise money is not good for share price !!
Unless I totally misunderstood your point !
Joint broker is purely to have more flexibility and to raise the profile of the company between the two with institunal investors and that is the reason and nothing else
A positive response of the market suggest it is working well.
With all the news of economy moving in UK and around the world you are sitting at bargain entry right now. So I averaged down and will continue to do so as I believe this will be above 200 in no times. (Certainly this year)
IMHO
GLA
DYOR
Something to consider. A new joint broker will have their own division of institutional clients. That would suggest that there could be a placing soon to raise money. Unless City Pub's recent trading has been severely hampered by temporary closures due to covid outbreaks, there might be the possibility of of an acquisition in the offing. City Pub have mentioned the possibility of acquiring during this pandemic.
Am going to sit tight and wait for news, we could well get something on top of the Interims by the end of this month. If good news will top up then.
Does anyone know why a joint broker would be appointed (does it suggest that the single one has competence, priority or capacity problems - if so why not drop them?), or does the second broker have a different value to add?
And then ... is not reasonable to expect the company to explain why a second broker is appointed, assuming it's important enough to warrant an RNS?
At this silly SP I wonder whether this indicates someone is preparing a bid for our co?
They should perk up this miserable SP like some of their delicious brews. If not, they must know they will become a target for one of the larger pub fish. Good point to buy, not so comfortable to be hanging around thirsty!
CPC are bringing a classic pub in Exeter back to life...
https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/signs-up-exeter-pub-turks-5790435
"A POPULAR Brighton pub has been named as one of the best places to drink in the UK.
The Walrus in Ship Street in the Lanes, made the Liberty Games rundown of the top 30 bars and pubs..."
"...The Walrus – part of The City Pub Group - landed 15th place out of the entirety of the UK.
The bar received more than 237 five-star reviews.
The Walrus, which was previously The Smugglers, opened in 2017 and serves Sunday roast, ****tails, coffee, vegan food and sweet treats.
It has a two-storey roof garden, an open fire and snug booths on its ground floor and a music venue in the basement."
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/19513215.brightons-walrus-list-uks-best-pubs-bars/
In this case .... (after reading and understanding the fundamentals)
I would say MM are after collecting the shares as cheap as possible knowing they have to let this go and this will surely go up strongly in couple of months
They have everything going for them...
From pandemic being under control, ebd of lock downwind, excellent vaccinations, new more advanced vaccine coming to market, excellent refurbishment investments they did which will pay off longer term, to summer unlocking times which only will generate massive cash flow for them .. .. All going well actually so to me these prices are truly a joke and wouldn't last for long with more people out drinking and enjoying and visiting more UK cities then this is truly a gem in dark which will shine so well soon.
Perhaps the results of Q2 may not be impressive as we all know because of lock down January to June but all of that has already been counted into share price already so if you ask me I say this is really going for very cheap share priceat the moment and MM can't hold it down for too long.
This is not FTSE100 so share price are influenced by MM
For me this is a long termer and it will pay off massively actually .
Stay paitient
Stay positive
This comes more than just good....it will be excellent
IMHO
GLA
DYOR
So why does the shareprice only continually drop?
Interims only due end Sept so seems to me likely to to be recording very positive half. These are behind the curve at present and I may well take some more, but please DYOR.