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75P ?
Hi Roguemale1 . The information came up on tipranks as 3 % , which is also why i then started looking. This morning Tipranks also shows no shorts.
I was investigating quickly last night off my phone and my apologies i see that by clicking through the historical shorts it gives a link to the current shorts of the entity that was shorting in the past. and i thought the 8th Jan was the change date on Costain - hence the question.
My mistake though - thanks
OK I PAID MORE THAN THE OTHER DAY however correct me if im wrong i see great value here .
Both this board and Short tracker have shorts at zero. Has been for years.
Where is that from? Quite the entrance for someone who hasn't posted for 3 years.
As a relatively new investor to Costain, Can some one help me re historic short positions following research over November and December, todays news is great and the shareprice response fantastic. However as i was looking around the market data pages i found that 3% of the company is shorted on what appear to be recentish positions. I normally check short positions before i invest, but confess i didnt on this case as i couldn't see why you would short a company that in essence is trading at its cash position, has there always been a lot of shorting ? Do people think todays rise could be the short sellers trying to exit their positions before the March financial results? in which case if 3 % of the stock is about to be bought the price is going to climb very quickly. i would expect
Agreed m007j AND you haven't even mentioned c.£700m contract which at 8% margin would give £50m return just from this contract. I feel a massive re-rate is due here.
Costain current cash: £164m
Debt: £0m
Current market cap (after today's rise): £187m
This values a business which will make operating profits of £50m this year at just £23m. That is crazy low.
Market Cap here 2016/17/18 averaged about £400m before the problem jobs kicked in.
Market Cap now £188m
Numbers in March should underpin a return, even if it moves quite slowly.
GLA
Cash in the bank values the assets at zero. Crazy it will re-rate
Costain seems to be in a similar position to where Galliford Try was 3 years ago, no debt, no pension deficit and a large cash balance. The market cap back then for GFRD was less than the net cash balance. Share buybacks and dividends have resulted in a 3 fold increase in the share price since then.
Consensus estimates (as tracked by Costain themselves) are EPS this year of 10.8, rising to 11.5 next year. Think of a PER and do the maths! At a mere PER of 8, the share price would be 92p.
GBP 32m cash build in 6 months is impressive. In construction cash is king and Costain has lots. Interest alone would give a P/E of 20.
Costain Group PLC AMP8 Water Framework Win with NWG & Trading Update
10 January 2024 RNS
Costain AMP8 Framework Agreement with Northumbrian Water Group and Trading Update
Appointment adds to Costain's wins in the new water regulatory cycle
Costain Group PLC ("Costain", or the "Company") announces that it has been appointed by Northumbrian Water Group (NWG) to shape, create and deliver its strategic infrastructure upgrade programme. The framework will see contracts awarded with a potential value of up to GBP670m to Costain during a 12-year period and builds on recent significant wins in the water sector for the Company.
The framework contract will see Costain work with NWG and its partners to shape, create and deliver solutions to meet the strategic needs of its business plan during Asset Management Period 8 (AMP8). The contract starts immediately and will run for a seven-year initial term with an option for a five-year extension.
AMP8 will see the biggest investment in the water industry for decades. In 2023, Costain extended into AMP8 its Managed Service Provider contract with United Utilities and its consultancy work with Yorkshire Water. Costain has also won funding from Ofwat to support innovation projects.
Trading Update
Costain has had a positive trading year in 2023 and expects to deliver adjusted operating profit in line with market expectations. As a result, and reflecting an increase in financial income compared to 2022 and strong working capital management, together with the accumulation of GBP25.0m of positive working capital timings, Costain has ended 2023 with a net cash position of GBP164.4m (2022 year-end: GBP123.8m), significantly higher than market expectations of GBP128.6m.
.
"We are also pleased to report that we have had a positive trading year and expect to deliver adjusted operating profit in line with market expectations. Our cash performance has been very strong, driven by continued improved operational performance, an increase in financial income compared to 2022, and ongoing positive working capital timings."
Costain will issue its results for the financial year 2023 on 12 March 2024.
Market Cap £175m, Cash £165m. Say no more.
Yep, all true.
If you go back to the last dividend times 2018 etc, the metrics are already back to where they were then pre the 2 disasters.-ie they could be paying a full divi now . AV very cautious. I hope that works out.
Takeover target at these levels methinks.
My reasons why I continue to hold and still think we will see a substantial SP rerating in 2024. Looking for 100p plus in 2024.
1. If we compare Costain to industry peers it has a P/E Ratio of 7.9 whereas its industry sector average is 13.3. Nearly double. Keller 10.3 and Galliford even 23.
2. Fair value would equate to 1.18 which shows we are over 47% undervalued. Looking at future cash flow forecasts using DCF models.
3. Hope greater broker analysts coverage in 2024 which should give a more significant rerating.
This is one of the core holdings in my portfolio. The Telegraph got the net cash balance wrong a few weeks ago but the last reported net cash number was £132m according to my illegible notes, which represents around £0.47 per share. Not a bad 'safety net' for investors.
£132m net cash balance + strong cashflows + EV:EBITDA not far off 1x + low PE ratio + strong brand name in the UK + some degree of diversity in operations (water, energy, defence, roads, rail, air etc). There are many strong reasons to be buying this share at £0.64 a pop.
My only slight concerns are the low margins (on the £1.4b of revenues) and the incoming Labour government in the UK (which could actually be a positive or a negative for the sector). But if they bodge a large contract we still have the £132m of net cash to handle any shocks, so I sleep soundly with this stock. This said, I'd be happier if they scarified some top line revenue for the sake of healthier EBITDA margins. There must be a few breakeven or loss-making contracts that COST has on its books. Ditch them.
We need some good news to move this stock significantly higher in 2024. Maybe a proper (rather than a nominal) dividend, some share buybacks and (naturally) some cracking half-year results. Let's get the net cash balance to Telegraph levels!
So...next resistance 70p. Let's see.
In my particular case I would need to see the SP double to get excited.
However I am glad to see it breaking the public offer price of 60p and long may it continue its rise.
Blimey, starting to get a nose bleed!
Bought these in April 21 for 62.37p/share - I was starting to wonder if this day would ever come!
Go on the Costain, beauty
Up and away we go. Finally broken 60p
Strange thing. Offer 60.40p but on ii life last trade showing 61.13p. No stocks available at offer sp?
So, finished flat today. With the same buying pressure as today it should start going north tomorrow. With company having more cash than its market cap means that Costain’s £2.5bn order book, expected £1.4bn in sales in 2023 and already secured £800m in sales for 2024 ...are for free. No brainer at this level