Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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I quite like Panamabobs’s also “FOLLOW THE MONEY”.
Good strategy John.
Sorry to keep bringing him up but Warren Buffet also says you could have a portfolio of 30 plus stocks but it might be 1 stock that pays and goes on to say if needs be just have 1 or 2 open positions.
I thought this was appropriate as you said “Why chase dreams elsewhere where with rainbows, when your about to get to the end of this rainbow”.
Trading strategies and perhaps nowadays it’s a combination of
A. Warren Buffet’s old school principles, &
B. Elon Musk’s top 10 rules.
Principally his no.6. ‘Focus on signal over noise..
& maybe his no.3 might be applicable today
‘Don't listen to the #LittleMan...
Lol, that’s enough from me then for today, enjoy the weekend peeps.
I'm not selling a share until, Nigeria is drilled,Atomic fields are producing 5,000 bpd, find out about other awarded fields.Just think when we start drilling on the Atomic fields and increase size of fields and reserves.
This is going to be massive!!
Why chase dreams elsewhere where with rainbows, when your about to get to the end of this rainbow.
Lots of different trading strategies will come into place - it’s gonna be fun!
Let’s assume our value upon agreement will be 2p, if you were going to top slice 15%-20% of your holding, then with the herd piling in it could be closer to 3p. You could sell your top slice stake and when it drops to 2p buy in again with 5% - 10%, free shares.
Just one example but another one of Warren Buffets strategies is have a plan and stick to it, important to take profits but at the right time.
Listening to Justin waites weekend podcast and they are discussing a sell off of stocks which have rocketed based on projections 5 years down the line. They also mention oil as showing resilience against this sell off. If only we knew of a company in the oil sector, going into production within weeks and undergoing rapid growth over the next two years!
At 3p, just before OPEC had their infamous bun fight.
Last year’s April & May top ups were v.fortuitous.
Puts Zac’s 0.7 & my 7.0 as nice milestones.
2p is a 10 baggèr or more for many. For Yachmaster quite a lot more. I paid 1.65p about 4 years ago so it's been a long expensive haul getting my average down to .36p. So currently Im6 about level. So you can work out that those in my position 2p will be very welcome.
I stil maintain that for AM Atomic is just the start. He's on a roll. Just watch!!
The biggest question to me is what will the mms open this at post approval
Valuation is straight from COPL presentation and it is conservative I will never be more pleased to be wrong.
I’ll be looking to liquidate stock in my ISA next week to add more here.
2p price by when? The Atomic sign off we should have base of 2p?
I like your spike shaa, which seems reasonable.
The sp will get tied to the fundamentals hence c.2p base,
but will be driven much higher by the story.
Your poking the hornets nest Bob with talk about Nigeria being the big prize
Thanks guys so around 2p with Atomic, possibly spiking to 2.75p with herd and as you say, loads of other things happening - could be an explosive 2021.
Chaos theory, where Mandelbrot (still operating around the Ivy League colleges I believe) then inputted that there are datums, there is in everything a minimum datum and a maximum datum, ie. the normal thresholds. He then highlighted, that if you get 3 swings beyond these datums, then the 4th tends to go off the scale. To quote PB ‘One element changes and the entire outcome is shot’. I suspect we might be already seeing that with the weather, which is then eventually tied into POO. ($66 this morning).
Similar thinking to Bob, with Atomic acquisition being most reasonable scenario. The Chinese get delisted from the NYSE does not mean they have to sell their assets & likewise, the NOP owe Atomic $7M, & that does not mean they too have to sell their assets. The big game, as Bob implies, is in what lies ahead for COPL, after Atomic.
800bod x 20% monthly increases x $65, with the CPR showing Atomic’s interest of the plateau, at 2850 by end of year, so then c$68M/year
then 4000bod by 2026, then giving c.$95M.
Atomic will be an incredible asset, which the shareholders paid for & for which the company will then have c.$26M of outstanding debt. This puts AM very much into the driving seat, IF he then decides to go for another M&A venture.
Its not what the Pi’s evaluate COPL at, its all about how the ii’s evaluate AM.
And so far, he has played an absolute blinder.
Bob
At the moment, they're too busy punching each other in the face at PIB meetings but with the recent arrival of the AZ vaccine, given the delays were officially attributed in part to Covid in the RNS and their pledge to kiss and make up for a resolution, with the locals wanting 10% and being offered 2.5% and an obvious middle ground agreement to be had, combined with a claimed timeline for agreement of late March / April, which is only weeks away, it's potentially appearing on the horizon.
Or as BJ would put it, 'the Crocus of hope can be seen poking through the frost', which would be a welcome progression from 'the Daffodil of despair'.
:o)
10p all have a good weekend no explanation lol.
These micro analyses are all very well but it only only be takes one element in the chain to unexpectedly change and the entire outcome is shot.(See Chaos Theory).
But shortish term at least there is a reasonably high probability that very high oil prices and AMs enhanced production techniques will be sufficient to ensure a healthy scenario for most of us.
Most projection forsee an SP of 1.5 /2.0 from the Atomic Acquisition.
The really big prizes may lie elsewhere.
Another Atomic type acquisition. Or The Nigerian 226, Maybe Mozambique or the recently acquired Marginals.
Just my thoughts. But who knows?
Big week coming up
Do we have potential SP, given the new debt equations and increased oil price for best case scenario if we own 100%?
Thanks in advance, I thought with us being closed for 2 days, something constructive could be discussed rather then replying to ‘saviours’.
Debt.
• Assumed Debt: $26 million at closing .
• Total Additional Debt and Cash: $15 million at closing.
Debt.... $41M. This is from earlier data.
Has since been posted, that the $1M & $8M deposits were used to service the additional debt (but that the figure was then $16M, as per reply from Cathy) so could assume the additional debt (prev.$15M) is now c.$7M
Revised total debt... $33M.
Then, we can deduct the IOU that comes with the estate,
Namely the $7M that is owed from the NOP.
Revised total debt..... $26M.
Quite keen in trying to suss out the Debt / EBITDA ratio, as I believe this is quite an important metric, IF the company were to continue along the M&A trail..
If the Nigerians cannot see the enormous advantages of the immediate development of 226 someone needs to have a very serious word. They could start with Economics 101.
Bigbear, isn't your valuation conservative?
This will do nicely.... Approximate Increase in Net Asset Value from 60% Increase in Oil Price
• Net Asset Valuation: (80% P2 Reserves of $308 million (10% NPV)) at c. $62/bbl. WTI
• $246 million
• Initial Debt: $41 million
• Assumed market capitalization post completion: $205 million (£146 million)