Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
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This is how the LSE stock exchange prints TRADES
21.01.22 10:42:46 34.14 GBX 735,000 £250,892.25 Off-Book P LRGS XLON XLON
The LRGS flag just indicates, the trade was delayed in printing
The XLON that all was conducted on the LSE , like wise if AIMX AIMX on the AIM
exchange
Anything other on which ever exchange your share uses , is another type of trade
and others involved , be it a foreign exchange or others, involved in its execution
or the arena it took place in.
Like last year, the many dupe prints we had on copl, two identical prints,from
time stamp across , one with ECHO SINT the other with ECEU SINT
Which a more au fait with MIIFID member of the board, identified as an transfer
of a large amount of shares to one of the ECEU European Exchanges.
3rd party sites, rehash and use a poor guesswork algorithm to try to be helpful
and fail miserably , the market does not use buy/sell red/blue, just TRADES
The guesswork sites cut off at the volume and all after is added on their prints
using the Algorithms poor methodology and ITS current price status, no matter if
placed 3 minutes ago or 3 days ago.
The market declined the offer to add such data at source, choosing tradition over
tech, as they view EVERY TRADE as both a buy and a sell
You the Buyer via your broker from a shop floor trader the Seller
or vice versa and any combination of other players you can name.
Hence when someone cries , we have 6 times the buys as sells and the price is flat
or even down, its just the guesswork algorithm sites having a really bad day.
In truth the trading is, flat or seller shading , or again vice versa
;))
Morning All,
I think the caution is sensible Trading Lad, but that still gives us annual profit at £500M. Applying a 15x PE (doesn't seem unreasonable given the size of the prize and friendly conditions - location and onshore), that gives an MCap of c£7.5Bn. Didn't someone suggest £2Bn equated to £11. If that's the case, 7.5Bn equates to a seemingly crazy £41.25 per share!
It may seem fanciful and I'm sure there'll be many factors that cut the number down. But the size of the prize is still substantial, as I think we all know. Just need Art and his crew to derive best value out of this for us all....
All the best,
Bezzy
BD1, I don't think you're a million miles off there, it's all onshore and I believe much of the infrastructure is already there HOWEVER if this does turn out to be the monster we believe it to be, will the existing pipeline be capable of handling the additional oil flow... my guess is a resounding no, so I'd be cautious and price the netback at about half of that till me know what we need to do :)
I’d guess net backs in the region of $50 / barrel at current POO, expected to rise. So conservative POO, production and number of horizontals on full development:
2000 x 30 x 365 x 45 = £1bn PROFIT per year
The spread at a given time does not say anything about whether it is buy or sell. The spread can be wrong, a placed order, mate rates....
No there not.
You obviously don't look at the buy/sell price at the time.
Can be either.
Delayed reported trades and after hour trades are always sells imo.
£11 is still "only" a £2 billion mkt cap. Which imho is cheap for all the oil copl is potentially sat on.
How bad is my calculation here?
Potential mkt cap = 51 x 3000 x 365 x pe ratio (15?) x profit per barrel.
Just for the latest discovery.
I've no idea how much profit per barrel is typically for Wyoming.
The lack of late reported sells along with the massive offloading on the last few sessions is the biggest indication yet that this overhang has cleared.
“My SP estimate is £11”
"Delusional."
Ok Devilbhoy perhaps it is a bit delusional to start thinking of £11, or even £20 or £30 as a SP I'll agree with that BUT, I could also say it's delusional of you to think that this won't substantially re-rate to reflect the sheer scale of the asset we have at some point in the near future? And when I mean substantial I am being conservative by saying that this has 10 bagger written all over it which would be around £3.50 from current levels.
There will be a few catalysts along the way to make that happen and in particular the publication when it comes of the Scott Ryder CPR.
In my view this should very soon have a higher Mcap than 88e which is built upon a lot of hype - something we are lacking - for now, but sentiment and tangible news will drive this forward. It doesn't matter which way you cut it, it's impossible to ignore the 1.5 - 1.9 Bn barrels along with the fact we already have a drilled well that has intercepted several sands -
"Light crude oil was discovered in stratigraphic traps in the Upper Cretaceous Frontier Fm. 1 and 2 sands and the Lower Cretaceous Dakota Fm. sands. Mapping of the reservoirs on regional trends has shown the discovery to be extensive, with the Company estimating the combined reservoir volume to be 1.5 billion to 1.9 billion Bbl. of Oil in Place ("OIP"
“My SP estimate is £11”
Delusional.
1,500,000,000 boo
40% recovery
60 bags
Insane possibilities here it is starting to sink in - start your engines COPL
I have even looked at the cost of planes …and flying lessons :-)
Yes confirmed Monty, but unfortunately the market needs ‘official unbiased’ confirmation from a recognised body.
In layman’s terms once Ryder Scott say it’s 1.9B, start the car as we could 15-20 bag.
Ok. That's very good
No reason to suggest our mega asset will be less recoverable.
Got to be £10 to £ 15 p share. Maybe much more.
I understood 40-50%
What is the typical Recovery Rate for our near Wyoming Neighbours.? Eg Chevron
Hey Antha
I am new to this so my calculations are probably a little one dimensional, for my understanding…
Why 3 years, I had assumed this year if a jj was secured or a buyout
What calculation leads to £11
Not really a challenge just curious on how others buld their forecast
Cheers
It’s what I was thinking TradingLad, to get to a fiver we need some confirmation.
So much happening but nothing rubber stamped, CUDA, increased BOPD, new discovery, TR1, Nigeria - all great potential but not confirmed.
Each of the above is a game changer, we could get them closely together in a short space of time….
My SP estimate is £11 with a takeover within three years but I think very short term it will fluctuate with a low of 25p therefore a possible 44 bagger from that level if you're prepared to hold for gold.
Market Cap of $1 billion would be the equivalent of
500,000,000 barrels of oil
@ 20% recovery rate
With assumption of $10 per P2 reserves
Share price then = $5 or £4
Assuming 100% ownership - can be adjusted downwards
This seems excessively conservative and does not include any other aspect of the business.
On that basis, using the assumption of 40% recovery, $10 p2 cost, for 1 billion boo seems at the low end of realistic $21 = £15
I would favour the £22 calculation based on current share issue, safe country, low tax, existing infrastructure, favourable geology and so on
Only Art can say when this CPR will be released. The rest are guessing. As for the march date, very unlikely and is just wishful thinking while they increase their holding. Art fell off his chair implies someone else is doing that CPR. My take
? is it is already complete.
What about the prospect of Art having some "NDA" chats with the bigger boys as the CPR is going on and then announcing a transaction with one of them as the CPR comes out?
Cue Michael Caine..........
The CPR is what will change everything here in the public domain and wider market perception of value.
I have no doubt that right now Arthur is doing the groundwork for a JV or financing. This is the guy who spend new years eve 2020 wrangling the deal for the financing of the Atomic takeover. He has focus.
When those two things hit the market this will explode.
Arthur doesn't really do leaky leaky from my experience. He does seem to answer some PI emails, but the ridicule this is met with has probably put him off doing that. Atomic came completely out of the blue. So do the placements lol but lets hope that is a thing of the past. We will have no idea when the CPR or JV will hit until Art slaps every shorter and critic in the face with the good news.
Today - Art will not be sitting around wringing his hands. He'll be ringing his old friends, doing deals and living for the day when the mkt cap here hits $1bn.
Still holding long.
The potential value here is unquestionable and we can all do back of an envelope calculations that show this with no ramping needed. We now need a CPR. How much is recoverable? At what speed and at what cost? When that is known a JV comes in to play. That is when the sp can multi , multi bag. For now it requires trust and a leap of faith but the big guys want hard facts. I have placed my bets and now I just need to wait and see if my faith was justified. I see massive upside perhaps 30x and 50% downside and a timeline of less than a year to know which way the cards will fall. The thing I need most is patience. GLA
The more you think about this and the potential upside from so many angles the SP just seems stupidly cheap. Keep adding more but the more research you do the more I think about selling every other share I own and going all in. What’s worst case here only 5% of the new discoveries are recoverable ? Still got to mean £1 minimum if the MF is sorted out and cashflow is good. I just can’t see the SP in the teens happening again.