Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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hfb - you have triggered a pun alert my friend.
W are are looking forward to jumbo returns!
Fits the bill Shaa for our usual seller and buyer flags on the oversized trades.
Very close together, doing direct transfers, between them now lol
15:37:24 28.00p GBX 197,241 £55,227.48P Off-Book P XLON XLON
(usual large sell flags)
15:37:19 28.10P GBX 197,241 £55,424.72P Off-Book P ECHO XOFF
(usual large buyer flags)
:))
All aboard , taxiing
15:02:25 28.40p 27 £7.67
calling all shorts, calling all shorts
27p no longer available 767 code ready
for take off
Warning , Warning , buying copl could
seriously improve your wealth
:))
Lol. Tedoby may have inspired a Damascene conversion. Though I have my d ok ubts
Oil at 85 dollars time to be buying here before you miss the boat
Drinking lol
Do I smell a porkie at 50 paces
Bob?
:))
LB. If you've turned positive welcome to the club
https://www.wsgs.wyo.gov/energy/oil-gas-basins#view7
Future Development
Lengthy horizontal laterals, multi-lateral completions, and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing have allowed operators to produce large amounts of oil from previously-uneconomic tight sands and shales. More than 92 percent of all 2019 and 2020 approved permits to drill in the Powder River Basin were for horizontal wells.
Large-scale oil and gas developments in the Powder River Basin will take advantage of these
technological advancements.
The recently approved Converse County oil and gas project permits operators to drill up to 5,000 wells
the majority of which will be horizontal that target stacked, unconventional Upper Cretaceous reservoirs
https://pawyo.org/oil-and-gas-101/
:))
Stop it Tedoby. I don't normally drink in the afternoon
One sell and one buy.
15:37:24 28.00 197,241 55.23k
15:37:19 28.10 197,241 55.42k
great detail tedoby..risk reward ratio is there for all to see......no doubt a rerate will start in earnest soon!
Following AM’s recent interview we should all be of little doubt he would like to acquire CUDA at the right price if at all possible. I believe it's been said that CUDA wants $40m for its Working Interest in Wyoming and that AM doesn't want to pay more than $20m. How true that is I don't know. But I imagine it could well be.
If I was in CUDA'S position I'd be thinking given Atomic was paid roughly $50m for its 58% WI but WTI oil prices have doubled since then so $40m for 27% seems fair.
Conversely I've no doubt AM will be looking at COPL's notional Market Cap and working out that the market is valuing Atomic’s purchase at around it's acquisition cost. So from that perspective $20m for CUDA's WI seems reasonable given there can be no better way to value than from the market.
Time isn't on CUDA's side unfortunately for them. It's debts must be increasing by the day, added to the fact that it must be difficult to sell Wyoming to anyone else given COPL owns the infrastructure and it has a foreclosure case running.
We’ll have to see how it pans out obviously. But I doubt we'll have to wait too much longer now before we hear.I for one hope we manage to buy it and at a reasonable price. The cost to value ratio may well be better than the Atomic acquisition which was exceptional if the price is right.
For example, let's look at three future scenarios that I like to think are possible. They may not turn out to be right but whatever happens and whichever way you look at it the differentials may well be much the same.Viz:-
Example 1 - COPL’s current 57.5% WI interest:-
Let's assume that WTI oil price remains constant at $80/boo. Let's also say that production is 6,000 bopd which is midway between the two plateaus given in COPL's Presentation in February.
6,000 bopd is 2.10m bopy as near as makes no difference. That’s 2.10m bopy x 57.5% = 1.21m bopy to COPL.
Finally let's say pre - debt & tax Netback is $50/boo giving us $30/boo costs and that repayment of the debt principal begins in March 2022 and runs for 36 months.
So as we stand without CUDA's WI we have Revenue as 0.39mboo hedged at $56.58/boo and 0.82m boo at $80/boo. Giving us a total revenue of $87.67m
On the cost side we have operation costs of 1.21m bopy at $30/boo giving us $36.30m and debt costs of 10 x $1.25m(P)+ 12 x $470k(I) giving us $18.24m. Making the cost before tax of $54.54m and a profit before tax of $33.13m.
There should be no tax to pay given the offset of losses on the balance sheet and other allowables so it follows that the $33.13m may be used as “earnings” in an earning metric method of valuing Barrin Flats Shannon. Barron Flats Deep,Cole Creek and Nigeria assets have not been considered. They’ve been excluded.
With BF running in an optimised and steady state by Christmas 2022 I believe it’s appropriate to use a p/e ratio of 25 and in so doing we get a contribution to COPL’s market cap from BF & CC at that time of $828.25m. During ramp-p the method is less appropriate as the earnings are distorted. As I say BFD, CC and Nigeria have not been considered.
So with around 165m shares in issue we get to $5.02 notional share price contribution from just Barron Flats Shannon which is £3.71 by December 2022. That’s twelve bags from here.
2 of 3
Example 2 - COPL’s Working Interest 85% (Having acquired CUDA)
Again let's assume that WTI oil price remains constant at $80/boo. Let's also say that production is 6,000 bopd which is midway between the two plateaus given in COPL's Presentation in February.
6,000 bopd is 2.10m bopy as near as makes no difference. That’s 2.10m bopy x 85 = 1.79m bopy to COPL.
Finally let's say pre - debt & tax Netback is $50/boo giving us $30/boo costs and that repayment of the debt principal begins in March 2022 as before.
So we have revenue as 0.39m boo hedged at $56.58/boo and 1.40m boo at $80/boo. Giving us a total revenue of $134.07m.
On the cost side we have operation costs of 1.79m bopy at $30/boo giving us $53.70m and debt costs of 10 x $1.80m(P)+ 12 x $638k(I) giving us $25.66m. Making the cost before tax of $79.36m and a profit before tax of $54.71 m.
As before there should be no tax to pay given the offset of losses on the balance sheet and other allowables so it follows that the $54.71m may be used as “earnings” in an earning metric method of valuing Barron Flats Shannon. Barron Flats Deep,Cole Creek and Nigeria assets have not been considered.
Again with BF running in an optimised and steady state by Christmas 2022 I believe it’s appropriate to use a p/e ratio of 25 and in so doing we get a contribution to COPL’s market cap from BF & CC at that time of $1367.75m. I repeat BFD, CC and Nigeria have not been considered.
So with around 165m shares in issue we get to $8.55 notional share price contribution from just Barron Flats Shannon which is £6.33 by December 2022. That’s well over twenty bags from here.
This example shows how attractive the acquisition of CUDA could prove to be. For a notional $20m in cost COPL would in theory gain over $500m in value in about a year's time when Shannon should be operating in an optimised and steady state.
2 of 3
Example 2 - COPL’s Working Interest 85% (Having acquired CUDA)
Again let's assume that WTI oil price remains constant at $80/boo. Let's also say that production is 6,000 bopd which is midway between the two plateaus given in COPL's Presentation in February.
6,000 bopd is 2.10m bopy as near as makes no difference. That’s 2.10m bopy x 85 = 1.79m bopy to COPL.
Finally let's say pre - debt & tax Netback is $50/boo giving us $30/boo costs and that repayment of the debt principal begins in March 2022 as before.
So we have revenue as 0.39m boo hedged at $56.58/boo and 1.40m boo at $80/boo. Giving us a total revenue of $134.07m.
On the cost side we have operation costs of 1.79m bopy at $30/boo giving us $53.70m and debt costs of 10 x $1.80m(P)+ 12 x $638k(I) giving us $25.66m. Making the cost before tax of $79.36m and a profit before tax of $54.71 m.
As before there should be no tax to pay given the offset of losses on the balance sheet and other allowables so it follows that the $54.71m may be used as “earnings” in an earning metric method of valuing Barron Flats Shannon. Barron Flats Deep,Cole Creek and Nigeria assets have not been considered.
Again with BF running in an optimised and steady state by Christmas 2022 I believe it’s appropriate to use a p/e ratio of 25 and in so doing we get a contribution to COPL’s market cap from BF & CC at that time of $1367.75m. I repeat BFD, CC and Nigeria have not been considered.
So with around 165m shares in issue we get to $8.55 notional share price contribution from just Barron Flats Shannon which is £6.33 by December 2022. That’s well over twenty bags from here.
This example shows how attractive the acquisition of CUDA could prove to be. For a notional $20m in cost COPL would in theory gain over $500m in value in about a year's time when Shannon should be operating in an optimised and steady state.
3 of 3
Example 3 - COPL’s Working Interest 100%:-
To take Barron Flats and Cole Creek to it’s optimised and steady state on their known assets I believe we have to be looking at Q2 2025.
By then the senior debt should have been paid and COPL should own 100% of the fields. producing 16,000 bopd at least. 12,000 bopd from Barron Flats and 4,000 bop from Cole Creek. The final tranche of ownership being financed out of work in progress.That’s my vision.
If I’m near right and oil prices stay as they are we could be looking at almost $450m revenue from 5.6m bopy. Costs by then should be no more than $25/boo giving us a profit before tax of $308m. By then I imagine COPL may be paying tax albeit not without some write-downs to offset the liability. I have that at no more than $50m which in turn gives us an earnings figure of $248m.
Using the same p/e ratio as before of 25 that puts Wyomings a Market Cap at $6.2bn. With 165m shares in issue that's a contribution to COPL’s share price of $37.57 or £27.80 from Wyoming which is eerily 100 bags from here! Nigeria is still being excluded.
I’m not saying this stock isn’t without risk. Of course it is. But what I am saying it’s stock which such enormous potential such as this one with and very proportionate risk/reward ratio that makes the opportunity in COPL extremely rare and very attractive in my view
Let’s hope the market stay’s strong and AM get’s there for us guys!
AIMHO.