Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
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Some of the valuations on here are nothing short of utterly idiotic/ridiculous. Numbers pulled from the air as if this company will have no problems/raises etc along the way and its all smooth sailing and the price of oil will continuously go up.
Short term, most of us will be more than delighted with 80p-£1.20. Then we will see the situation with deals, contracts, oil prices, futures, the economy, general world issues etc.
Some of the valuations here have been done by accountants..
Haha spot on Wookie!
Please can you enlighten us with the calculations behind your own values?
The numbers posted so far by members have been based on numbers in the last RNS and current typical PE/oil values to give an indication of POTENTIAL.
very true wookie lol
think we counted 8 in a session last year , Yacht , TheAccountant , Noob amongst
the regular posters a.t.t. , so spoiled for choice on this board lol
;))
Well they are fantasists and I wouldn’t let them anywhere near my accounts. This fn share is still over 10% below the pre-suspension price, almost 50% below the re-list price and can’t break 40p.
The company is **** at meeting deadlines, **** at looking after its private investors and **** at communicating/PR.
There is a long road to 80p-100p. Anything beyond that is fanciful at this stage.
As much as I love the flip side arguments for balance I really struggle to see how would be lucky to reach £1 when the CPR is confirmed this year.
Use the most basic of fag packet calcs yourself
if CPR say the Frontier alone , is given , 1 billion barrels OIIP with a 20% recovery rate
that's 200mbo , the local rate USA npv10 x rr is over $10 a barrel in the ground reserves
That rate is usually over the top , last year moved from poo 40 / rate $7.50 to be £10.50
when , while deals done in the states where from $4 to $8 a barrel reserves
An even more simplistic way is basic 10% of the oil price (plus for USA add a bit) but even
if you keep it conservative and simple
200mbo x $10 = 2000m = $2 Billion
200mbo x $5 = 1000m = $1 Billion
Its a huge reservoir , it will command a pretty penny for a sale or JV
The higher, the CPR places the current estimate, Frontier 1.5 - 1.9 Billion barrels
and the higher , it determines our estimated recovery factor, the higher those
figures will become.
so, forget the fag packet , looks like we are gonna need a bigger calculator
;))
I’m no accountant, or indeed a professor of English.. but can see prices higher than £1 on what we currently have let alone what we might have once CPR confirmed.
ithink a little patience is required with copl.so much is happening and the goalposts are moving rapidly.You dont show your hand when trying to buy an assett.You dont RNS how much money is rolling in. in time all will be revealed. Investments are about "time" in the market not "speed". copl will do nicely,and investing here sub 40p will bring significant returns for those that hold long enough.
The current price reflects much of the uncertainty and distrust you raise Devil (advocate :-)). However non of that will be a factor when independent confirmation of the volume of oil is confirmed. So stripping those negatives away.We then focus only on the oil and the current wti and the applied cost of p2 probable reserves.
Given the massive positive for Art is now in play, his ability to make a deal to suit him we should be confident that the fantasists, me being one of them, are less daft and closer to the mark than you may think.
These may be considered substantial US strategic reserves in an increasingly unstable geo political map
Favourable geology
Increasing oil price
Highly effective engineering team
Stable country
Located within spitting distance of oil majors
And so on
I agree it has been paaaaaiiiiiinnnnnn all the way but with, based on the current knowns, a very small downside risk, impending dates for reporting, the upside to minimum of £10 which would be daylight robbery for the commodity volume on offer, is when not if.
Keep smiling… it will happen, onwards and upwards
Sit on your hands….
The economies of scale here are staggering, we’re currently planning to have 7000bopd from existing wells already paid for and stimulated. Add the 4 proffered for the deeps from August, say 2000bopd ea. So we could be drawing 15000bopd by end of year on current plans. Simply 15000bopd can generate £175m profit (before debt repayment) and at a worse case of 57% WI is near £100m.
So with that we could clear all existing debt and fund more drills. Each additional well a say 2000bopd will add £23m pa profit….. and so on.
The final figures are just mind boggling.
My hope is we self fund and increase year on year…
For perspective in a far more difficult environment and arena , offshore Tanzania
Mozambique , as part of a consortium , Cove Energy held around 5 tcf of a huge
gas discovery, industry standard 1 tcf = 170mbo, so 5tcf = 850 mboe
That 850mboe , drew in Shell who made a bid that equated to 75p per share
when the price was bobbing around 22-25p, a bidding war ensued and in the
end , the Thailand NOC won the day with a bid of as I recall around £1.25 p.s
That bid also equating to $1.25 Billion
That is the scale and beyond , our potential 1500-1900mb (double) v their 850mboe
has , with the benefit of , a safe onshore environment and much infrastructure already
in place.
With our green state , we do not flare , we recycle or use for site power and just a few
weeks ago ,one of the Majors announced its just down the road Carbon Capture
Facility was to increase to 7 Million tons per annum
If Carlsberg did , perfect scenario's
GLA l8trs
;))
I watched the interview again from the 10th of January and Art does at the end say that they cannot drill the new wells until August because of the bird's nesting. This should then allow us to get production rates up to profitable levels, which means that for a phased approach we shouldn't need to do any capital raises. I would like to think at this stage if the CPR comes back at 1bn or higher we could get a good loan as opposed to diluting long-term shareholders even more. Debt round the neck usually puts some hair on the chest of the CEO and leads to the CEO acting in the best interest of the company, IMO.
I just don't see this being as smooth sailing as we want though, if the CPR comes back all bells and whistles and there isn't a spectacular re-rate we're not just in danger of a hostile takeover from a major, we're at danger of a hostile buyout from some small investment houses. For this company to survive we need to start re-rating as soon as the CPR comes out... sadly I do not think it will so we will all need to stand together to fend off any buyout cause I for one don't trust Art not to sell for £2 a share if the offer came in.
I think £2 is so low ball I think even AM would laugh. However all offers start low….
@newlunar I completely understand where some members are coming from when talking about POTENTIAL and the numbers they have crunched. So I can get behind longer term figures of £5-10, but not these loonies spouting £20+ in short time frames. Don't get me wrong, I would love it to re-rate tomorrow and we all make a pretty penny, nothing would please me more. My point was there are real world scenarios that cannot be factored into those calcs. I have no doubt a re-rate will come but short term, I'm cautiously optimistic. Listen, I appreciate the common sense approach from members of this board to have meaningful discussions re our investments and its important to keep those balanced views. But I have seen far too many people spamming on these boards, which provides no utility whatsoever.
Not wishing to get rampy, what would happen if the first deeps horizontal in August actually flows 8000bopd (not unheard of).
Its great to be excited about this share. As previously mentioned, I'm cautiously optimistic. A lot can happen in the next 6 months. I'm no technical expert and don't do a lot of TA, but I, along with most of you can obviously see value in this share.
Well I would be over the moon with £2 I have 150000 shares I would be very happy
You would be happy with £2 a share the same way Roy Raymond was happy with $1m for Victoria Secret and look at how that turned out.
I have only been in this share a short time and like a few others here I would be VERY happy with £2.00 a share.
Yes I’m just saying really would be a great price for me someone who has lost a lot in other shares everyone has a price in there heads what they would sell at maybe if it went to £1.50 next week I would wait for £3
@Tradinglad...I only know about that story from watching "The Social Network". Within it lies so many lessons about both value and greed.
Tradinglad, would agree with hostile buy-out from small investment house / hedge fund for IF the field figures are half as good as they are thought to be as then would possibly elevate the oil to almost a strategic asset level.
Disagree though with your suggestion of AM bailing out at £2 as the numbers then don’t compute ie. £2 x AM’s current share holding does not afford a private jet.
Hence why I see AM trying to keep a tight grip on this.
Which then makes it quite awkward for us shareholders, as no serious O&G players imv would settle for just a NOP slice of the cake, considering their commited interests towards shareholders compared to AM’s lack of concerns. And of course those dire communications issues.
Then puts you thinking of field development, with possibly only a minor JV (that AM could control) and that then takes away any computations involving 100+ wells all simultaneously producing. Short term figure for me might then be around 20 horizontals at any one time. Enough to slowly build the company up & more than enough to then allow AM his next wee Bombardier.
who knows with what we have witnessed on copl for the past 13 months Harry
kaboom it should lol
I for one would not be surprised, such a huge volume , we could see a 3 mile
lateral placed into it , 1-3 mile laterals common in the states, 3 miles of oil
exposure v a 50-200ft vertical depth well , can throw some curve balls lol
and ps , mentioned it a few times , we have a Wyoming 8000 bopd well drilled
not that far away from us , for balance 2000bopd common but some lower
also.
Right things to do
manyana banana's