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Calibre is still only a guess, but if it is the loan deal closed today. With all the other cash they have coming in the stars are aligned for something to happen.
In summary, IF it is Calibre, and IF Calibre has been waiting for financing to be in place, we might hear something anytime from tomorrow.
We also need to think how much cash Calibre now have $60m gold forward sale, $100m placing, $160m cash in bank. They have access to debt so frankly Calibre are in a rude cash position. Valentine, as ryan said, is on budget and gold rally is going to increase that cash balance even faster. They could have $400m+ in a short time frame. Calibre will have only done all this if there was a plan as Valentine is on track and they had budgeted already for Valentine. gla
I mean they have 2.1m ounzes of gold resource and with 25k of drilling can take up to 3m. Obviously the resource across all land packages will easily surpasse 10m ounzes but whose counting but for Calibre looking to hit 500k ounzes a year asap to take full advantage of gold price explosion a canny buyer will pounce now while Condor are massively undervalued. Calibre run at 2 x cashflow, comparable in Canada is 8. Ryan believes part of that massive discount is Nicaragua and their under utilised mine and lack of resource to prove to market thet do not have future drain on growth. Adding Condor will completely change their Nic operation and as they have 15 quarters of growth market might push valuation of Calibre towards a bigger cashflow multiple. They will see a big rise in market cap over next 6 months if they can fully value their Nic assets and i think its pretty obvious how they might do it. Will they do it is a question of price. Calibre was always keen to buy Condor but at a very low price. This is why it is only a price matter and nothing else. Can Calibre meet Jim on an acceptable deal. Now Calibre paper is exploding its really now quite easy and Jim can save face by taking paper and some cash. who knows but what we do know is gold miners are back in vogue globally and have a long long way to go to get to a fair valuation.
DDD, don't forget the $60m USD gold prepayment they have agreed.
https://calibremining.com/news/calibre-enters-pre-commissioning-and-commissioning-8155/
They have already received $40m USD and the remaining $20m USD arrives 15th April. Is it just coincidence the timing of the prepayment and financing are both within a few days of each other?
Time will tell!
Just be aware, for anyone who hasn't seen it, that the ($100m) '...Offering is expected to close on or about April 16, 2024 and is subject to Calibre receiving all necessary regulatory approvals.'
https://calibremining.com/news/calibre-mining-announces-c-100-million-bought-deal-8143/
IF it is Calibre in the frame they will wait until after April 16th to make any CNR announcement, hence my 17th - 26th guess. I also doubt they will use all the cash, given it will be needed for working capital. I could see $20 - $40m thrown in the pot with the rest being paper. At least that's what I would do if I were Calibre.
Of course it could still be someone entirely unexpected, the Chinese, or even a player no one has even guessed. Gold is on a roll and that will likely bring all sorts out of the woodwork.
Simms. Cnr have 600 k reserves not 2 m . Calibre have increased from 200k to 1.1 m oz in the time they have been there as well as what has been mined during that time. I imagine in the 2 years they would spend constructing la India they will likely add a whole heap more without the need to finance and build a mine. He states timescale for permits etc. also adding concessions. Holding calibre I would be happy to see it happen but am still sceptical and don’t see anything in this vid to change my mind on that one. Only a few weeks to see I guess. Meanwhile the market is working for goldies In general.
Wow. Just listen from 26mins. Ryan says investors want bigger reserves and he almost says they want a big jump in reserves in Nic that sounds it is undervalued because of the low reserves. They are investing $25m a year in drilling and will take $100m+ to add reserves. Why bother when you have 2m ready to roll and reading between the lines Ryan is basically saying they want to buy and speed up that process. We are well within 400km so it makes complete sense, always has been. Question from day 1 is price. Now Calibre are booming they can afford to pay the price Jim wants. Ryan also says Valentine is on budget so again this $100m could be just Calibre taking advantage of market timing but i am betting it is there to smooth over a possible deal with Condor. We will find out. If anything happens it should be this month and regardless Condor need to update from its December update that was last real update on sale. Very exciting and 30p seems almost trivial on monday.
The interviewer asks Ryan King as to how much more capital they will need to finish the project. RK answers by talking about various figures relating to the history of Valentine, etc. but doesn't actually give an answer to the question. Maybe he is hiding the fact that they have cash waiting for an acquisition.
The interviewer (maybe by prior agreement) doesn't ask about any possible acquisitions even though RK states that the mill in Nicaragua has spare capacity.
Recent video. Hard to say but looks like valentine is costing a bit and they are in discussions in the financing of the sprott debt of valentine. Nothing about M&A.
https://youtu.be/Ti1IPb8MaMY?si=jlPORqIhqg3hOlVh
Wow! It’s like the Jedi ghosts appearing. Welcome back
Knowing your sense of humour I thought you might have gone for '69'...
Don't get too excited. I was a counterpart to the major part of the shares today and I plainly have no judgment based on past performance in relation to this share
One and the same, they’ve mucked up the security on the old account so this is my old persona with a 99 tagged on 😂
A user name blast from the past. We must be close… jibbo anybody?!
I am actually starting to become a little excited. 15 years is a loooooong time!
Not to say that a deal with them is impossible.
Looking fairly strong here now and cannot see sub 25 p again, unless deal fails to materialise.
Simms, it is not a massive issue. They are constantly increasing their reserves. They already gone from 200 k to 1.1 m. Bringing more on stream and have constantly increased output. That’s exactly what the man said!
Ever the optimist Simms but I like it
Long long way to go if Surrey123 is on the ball. I would be happy with 90p on Calibre paper as their stock will spike if they secure Condor as it will immediately lift the value of the company substantially and sort their massive issue of lack of capacity throughput and we will drop dropping almost 10grams of gold per ton.
9% up and climbing
Key factor is scale. Calibre want to hit mid tier status of 500k ounzes and then sell to a biggie for many billions. Its almost implausible Calibre would not want to shortcut that target as they could be trucking in 3 months and their 500k ounces hot a lot sooner. Key for Calibre is they are generating so adding 2m ounzes adds massively to NAV. it adds little to Condor as we are not a producer. Ryan knows he can probably triple the value of Condor on his books than ours. If Calibre do not buy Condor they are leaving probably £300m+ on the table in value that they could properly value. Just imagine the gold forward contract they could sign almost immediately to pay for Condor. We wait and see but Ryan is a smart operator and must have dragged MC over the coals just a little.
I listened to an interview with a Calibre SVP recorded 4 days ago. During the interview he says how successful the Hub and Spoke approach had been in Nicaragua where they have been growing production at 28% per annum. He also mentioned that they have spare capacity to process an additional 1 million tons.
It would appear to be a complete no brainer for Calibre to buy CNR as they could start production almost immediately and it would get their Nicaraguan operations to their target of 500000 ozs per year in the next 12 to 18 months but making good money almost immediately at the current high gold price. I think we know where they should utilise the US$100 million facility they have just raised. They did so because it was a good opportunity that arose due to the current gold price and they have not stated a specific use for the money. Interesting times and personally I would be happy to take Calibre shares as I am seriously considering buying some anyway.