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There results - Read them.
Where are you getting net losses from?
CNIC has an investor credibility issue. If you read the RNS’s and the first half of the financial results you’d thing what an undervalued wonderful winner. However when you get near the bottom you the net losses every year (Real truth). So we have this wonderful next best company fasted growing in Europe theme but it can’t make a net profit and investors aren’t stupid (Well the smart ones anyway). BTW I’m
Invested here loosing and deem myself stupid not to have looked more carefully over a longer period of time before investing. If the next results actually show a decent actual net profit then we deserve a higher positive re-rating uplift (Let’s see the revenue is vanity, positive EBITDA sanity, net profit reality - (Hard numbers only).
Another day littered with single digit trades. Seriously, what is all that about?🤷🏻♂️
30% down now YTD. My patience is wearing a little thin here.
The irony with this stock is that the flow is driven by retail punters… looking at the average trade size… anyway - CNIC is a strong buy, the company will be profitable on a reported basis this year and continues to grow double digit organically whilst being highly cash generative. STRONG BUY
Not about charts or trends, all about a seller managing the the share price.
Nearly 1m shares sold today, routinely disproportionate to the market cap.
Another Kape coming up.
I added as we look to be at a key level of about 116. I think it could be tough for the price to break 112, but if it does, then we would have 104 or 95 next. Either way it needs to just hurry up and get it over with. Im sure it will rise again afterwards, or get taken out. look at CSH today. very similar price action.
Massive holding here and can't believe I'm not rolling in it yet. Technically looking really poor. The long term trend line I spoke of was broken. We rose to it and fell away. Also a smooth pair of downtrend lines from 160 in play and usual rules playing out. Also a falling wedge is evident, now this can be good and it terminates near 100. This is also where 200 wk moving average appears. Are we going to 100 I ask.
That might be the only way any of us get to realise a proper gain here, unfortunately. Provided it doesn’t do another KAPE….
The feature also points out Kestrel’s continued buying of CNIC stock and their history as an active investor of brokering deals:
“CNIC could very much become a target for another market player, given the reach, growth and strong cash generation of the operation in relation to the current market value.”
A very thorough run-through of CNIC's undervaluation by the excellent Private Punter. In particular imo the new agreement with Microsoft has been underplayed - it's good to see the CEO noting that there's substantial potential from this in the next 2-3 years:
Https://martinflitton1.wixsite.com/privatepunter/post/value-appears-to-be-on-offer-at-cnic-04-05-23
When Ben referred to the sticky retention of clients ( upper 90,%) I always got the impression he was talking about domain names side of the business, less so the On line Marketing but would be pleased if that was the case!
Ex div tomorrow. Payable in June
Of course there is significant competition. That’s why Ben talked about having only 1 percent of the market. The point he also made was that the contracts are quite sticky and they tend to hold on to their growing army of client, hopefully following Moore’s law , which is what it looks like with the recent growth we have witnessed. The whole market is really slack at the moment. The main driver at the moment is M&A activity not share buying. Did we go ex div today? Not bad if we did
Michael did say that a Company called Perrin (?) who I assume are doing what Centralnic do earnt 224m dollars last year from a Microsoft contract. So it sounds like there will be competition, but significant nevertheless.
re microsfot - revenue not quantified but expected to flow through 3Q
Out of interest, did anyone listen to the AGM and hear what colour they gave on the new Bing contract with Microsoft? Eg did they quantify upside potential? Or provide any info around which markets it’s relevant for, or how much additional traffic they anticipate to be able to monetise etc? I guess, I’m trying to get feel how consequential they think this might be
Also, have they outlined timing for their material new product launches this year (like their English or French language versions of Tonic etc ?)
Now - at current level CNIC is a clear M&A target. P/E like cheap and highly cash generative companies. Two attributes that CNIC has. New KAPE ? Hope not if for a similar premium...
let's not forget that 4Q22 was hugely inflated by a weak dollar as it fell 8%. So yeh maybe org growth was low single digit positive to flat but I don't think this will be the beginnign of a new trend. The model is not dependent on discretionary spend. Also valuation provide some downside protection imo.
mate there is seasonality in such biz thus looking at sequential growht is wrong imo.
4Q22 vs 1Q23 was -3%.
1Q22 vs 1Q23 was 12.6% organic.
Q4 is usually a strong moonth for advertiser (xmas) thus the comparison is inacurate.
I assume your estimate of organic growth is for Q1 this year vs Q1 last year? My fear is that even this is backward looking. If you look at run-rate seasonally adjusted revenues, I suspect the Company posted effectively 0% organic growth Q1 vs Q4 which could be a harbinger of an inflexion point where quarterly revenues may be due to decline for a period of time. Whilst its still cheap as chips based on multiples etc, the significant change in momentum is clearly a big disappointment and likely to be the driver of share price performance over the next couple of months until we see the Q2 numbers to see what trajectory this thing is on now. The consensus numbers are hard to interpret, other than to say that they were sand bagged to such an extent that merely meeting them represents a disappointment vs. buy side expectations.
I would be happy with a big buyback along side the year end numbers which showed positive QoQ organic growth, or a take over offer at a 100%+ premium
good recovery today, cream always float to the top , lol
good to see us rebound today after that absolutely hissy fit yesterday which was simply ridiculous.
i don't understand people's complaints...does anyone really expect them to be posting +20% organic growth rates after the numbers last year in an ad downturn...get a grip and some realistic expectations formed.
they are doing fine and trading on high teen FCF yields now, with plenty of scope for upside.
I estimate Q1 organic growth to be 12.6%. Yes a slowdown but consensus only forecast high single digit CAGR over the next 5yr. So the pull back is just wrong.
Berenberg have retained their Buy and 250p target price:
Https://www.sharecast.com/equity/Centralnic_Group/broker-views