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Short sellers now closing positions
"a murder of crows(chancellors)"
The crow family of birds are extremely intelligent......
unlike our
"rabble of politicians"
Https://invezz.com/news/2024/01/18/i-called-the-centrica-cna-share-price-top-what-next/
So, we have positives of good results last year and decent results probably this year, mainly due to hedging their equity gas. The bad news is that the forward curve for gas and spreads will knock future results significantly. However the future is unknown and prices could rise. Right now we sit just above the 200d moving average. I will look at making a purchase if the price goes 8% below the 200d average. Not much cheer here unless results and guidance is really good. Also warm weather next week might drag on the price.
Relentless selling. This and the whole market sucks.
Not zero, thanks
I see your points, sticking to buy back in at 1.35 for a trade,. 8 p upwards.
I see CNA down to 1.25 - then it’s a buy and flat value upwards.
Dyor
NetZero - I like that, "a rabble of Politicians";
it goes well with the collective of "a murder of crows(chancellors)"
Bankboy,
There has been some variability in buy backs, largely the same amount per day but some others half the rate and the odd late notification the day after.
Rather than concentrate on the weeds though it is possible to fundamental misunderstand the situation here. If you have an engineering background and not finance it is patently obvious that any shift to green energy supply has already failed on its promises, prices are higher not lower and no amount of political blathering is going to fundamentally make a jot of difference in the ability of the grid and electrical sources to be uprooted and turned on its head in a matter of years. There isn't the money, there isn't the infrastructure, there isn't the supply of materials / components and there aren't the skilled bodies to do the work for anything other than a multi-decade switch.
No energy, no country, Germany is going to learn a lesson or two about about that and also what happens if you try and cripple your food supply - mass main artery road blocks in progress.
As for shorting having looked at the rest of the FTSE100 plenty of high / overvalued stocks there in sectors that are already faltering - housing, retail, and others and failure in those will expose the banks. The public have already had a year penny pinching as much as they can on energy but shivering in your darkened house under a heated blanket nothing but a short term stop gap, if it comes to it slashing expenditure elsewhere will be far more amenable to improving day to day life.
This is not a situation brought about by the energy companies themselves but one almost entirely via a compromised rabble of politicians. If those energy companies don't survive / thrive over the next dacade or so the country will go down with them, simple as that.
No buy back tonight RNS, perhaps they were hesitant after todays news where CNA had not passed the test about metering customers.
Natural Gas, were down 9% today, though as I posted Friday not relative to CNA share price.
New UK short selling regs change from 0.1% to 0.2%, come in 5th Feb though Private and not Public, see that as an opportunity that shorting will happen at this level.
soz - No pound shops in Knightsbridge, so unable to comment.
Bankboy, surely you've won the poundshop hedger award with that post.
Why would O'Shakey still be buying back more than 1/2 million shares today @ 148p,
if he thought the SP was going to drop? He's dumb but not that dumb surely?
Expect SP to be above £1.60 by end of Jan.
Ok bankboy good for you
Never forget the trend, general public are now cost aware, they are wiser to the costs of energy,.
Lights are turned off, less energy costs in cooking and heating homes and more the point business premises.
I read a report that electric blanket sales, thermal underware, jumpers and warm clothings layers are expected to outstrip supply - sales have risen by 23.5% since the hike of energy costs.
It’s a no brainer -
Natural gas price has no reference to CNA supply, revenue & demand.
Weather for 6 week forward is approx 3.9% lower than Jan 2023.
So -
We have the current buy back strategy, hence price support, techs say value is now back to 115 -123p.
I expect a drift back to that level now.
Good Luck Peeps
Just in time for cold weather to arrive.
Momentum well and truly shifted today - upwards.
Gas prices flying.
Owls, I think you are spot on, take profit, review again later.
I bought in at 75p and let go on way up, we know, it was going. Up.
Now sold out, the positive momentum seems to have fizzled out.
13 months of gains followed by 2 months of losses.
I've made a nice 59% profit over the last year so very happy with that.
"meaningless - a notional valuation based on what stake holders have pumped into it."
SSE has a market cap of £20B P/E 34, E.ON €32B P/E of 13.
"I am sure many Centrica shareholders would say that based on certain metrics, the value of Centrica should be £16 Billion."
I tend to agree with you. CNA has a current market cap of £7B and P/E 1.9. At a market cap of £16B the share price and P/E is roughly £2.90/share and 4, respectively. In 2013 the share price reached an all time high of £4/share.
Its why I hold since 38p. The market will rerate the price massively when it wakes up to it being thoroughly undervalued.
Thats a scam, octopus cant even beat inflation on operating results.
as you said the only thing making that possible is it is private
NZ
''Valuation just raised to £6.2Bn''
meaningless - a notional valuation based on what stake holders have pumped into it.
If Octopus energy was ever floated to become a plc, then the stock market would determine it's valuation.
I am sure many Centrica shareholders would say that based on certain metrics, the value of Centrica should be £16 Billion. Unfortunately the market determines it's value.
Plus Centrica have lots of assets too. I will be interested to hear an explanation
How do you compare the situation here and Centrica and make any reasonable comparative value statement?
Octopus FY 2021/22
Revenue £4.2Bn
Operating Loss £141m (would be near breakeven if not for absorbing wholesale costs)
Just raised £625m
Valuation just raised to £6.2Bn (according to Bloomberg).
Thanks for the example explanation Delta. Being as they appear to be the the only ones listed here with a short on, it is more likely they that this is the case. Rather than them expecting bad news that the market isn't aware of.
Just because an ii investor is short CNA does not necessarily mean they are bearish the stock. They might have a spread book. Ie they believe another stock will out ferform centrica. So if they sell £30m of CNA and buy £30 of stock x. If they both go up but stock x goes up faster than CNA then they win. Likewise if both stocks fall but CNA falls faster they win.