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That is still annoying me is that £1.7m PAYE arrears that suddenly appeared. I can find no mention of this beforehand and it seems like just as they are reducing the liabilities and putting some cash in the bank, there is suddenly a huge new liability to clear and we are back to square one again. Surely there can't be any more of these?
Good point re dilution.
Hopefully this is the floor in terms of SP and we can start moving up. If we start consistently recording profits, then we can’t stay down here forever!
I was thinking that it might have been them selling at 2p on the day of the placing. However Chelverton have not sold any shares, I just checked after the previous placing they still had 9,000,000 shares. So the position is just reducing due to dilution. The position is worth £180k at 2p. Seems an odd use of their funds when the trust is a dividend trust. Perhaps the old adage of 'its only a loss if you sell' is in play here. I suspect they bought in the old days of 80p+ per share.
So of the 30,000,000 placing shares:
Miton 3.75M
Raglan 7.5M
First Equity 11M
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22.25M out of 31,350,000
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So there is 9.1M knocking about... (and possibly First equity bought another 1M).
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That isnt that many really. £182,000 worst case that could be flipped. Lets hope they all find homes. We may have even bought some unwittingly already. Ideally if there are no sellers down at this price then we might get back to 3p over the next few weeks.
Should be issued within the next 6 weeks. We pretty much know what to expect but should still make for interesting reading
So Dartron was right about Chelverton
Looks like Miton took 3,750,000 shares in the placing. Their holding slightly increased (due to dilution).
Interesting reading that website, quite a few AIM names that I recognise.
Perhaps one day they can help facilitate a take over or trade sale.
https://www.raglancapital.ie/selected-transactions
Who ever sold that 350,000 at 2.03 (if they did acquire the stock in the placing) made £105 gross profit. That tells me there is possibly a seller who may need to be cleared. I notice Chelverton dividend income trust are still holding. I wonder if they have been selling, this would not fit with the funds strategy now. When the new shares are admitted hopefully we get TR1's from the other holders and we can see whats what. You never know, Chamberlin might even update the website.
Can't be much free float
Google raglan capital. Headed up by the same person, a Mr. Cathal Friel
Can’t find much about the II, other than they’re based in Dublin
Raglan Securities Ltd 4.18% of the enlarged share count. 7,500,000 shares (£150k)
I can't let myself put anymore into this either.... I just don't get how they can be singing from the rooftops of all is going well then hit us with a placing (again).
If private investors feel like this I wonder what investment companies that are stakeholders here are thinking
No more investment for me to this share..as shareholders are diluted and again unvalued.. and it repeats again and again . It's very bad trend.
Sorry, I meant that the RNS was a result of participating in the placing.
After taking their further shares in the placing First Equity were due to be at 29m shares per the placing RNS, so they've actually bought a further 1m shares on top to get to their current 30m shareholding.
They must have taken Mitons stock.
Christ knows how this situation plays out.
Correction, this is after the placing:
As part of the Placing, First Equity Limited ("First Equity"), an existing Shareholder, has agreed to subscribe for 11,000,000 Placing Shares pursuant to the Placing at the Placing Price. Following Admission, First Equity will have an interest in 29,000,000 Ordinary Shares,
Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/CMH/holding-s-in-company/16284009
Armstrong Investments Limited - up to 16.726727%
Note this is before the placing shares are admitted.
Great news.
I looked at the broker note, it was a like a compilation of 3 similar companies shall we say. There is only a page on each. My understanding is that these type of notes are really a mouth piece for the CFO of the company, so no analyses from broker. We already know the aspiration, now we have to wait and see if it can be achieved. It would be nice to hear some more detail on the contracts mentioned recently, perhaps an interview or RNS reach might cheer us all up.
They have really only repeated the forecasts from the annual report.
However what the annual report has, and this hasn't, are the risk statements in, for example, the going concern section.
I think my main lesson from this has been to carefully read those as well as the forecasts & broker notes. There are certainly some pertinent uncertainties in there which I shall be keeping an eye on in future updates.
I still doubled down and now have an average cost of 2.6p, mind.
Agreed.
However to make false misleading statements about the company's profitability would land them in serious trouble in the current regulatory environment.
Should be qualified that Cavendish are being paid for by Chamberlin as the broker they use. Because they're not independent they wouldn't give a negative assessment about their customer.
Cavendish have an updated note out today, reiterating their forecasts of £24m revenues, £1.4m EBITDA and 0.5p EPS this year to 31st May.
Extracts:
"Update.
The statement confirms the Board’s confidence in continued growth across its divisions over the medium term. For the current year, the statement reiterates previous guidance of full-year revenue growth of between 15% and 20%, and profit after tax of between £0.8m and £1.0m.
- Strategy. In the short term, strategy will focus on growth and achieving operational improvements across its businesses as the group’s turnaround continues.
- Petrel. At Petrel, the focus is to increase marketing to drive an increase in export sales to maintain the 18% growth achieved in the last financial year.
- Foundry division. In the Foundry division, both businesses are looking to enter new sub-sectors to drive revenue. CHC is investing in Spheroidal Graphite iron, a market estimated to represent approximately 70% of the total cast iron market representing a significant market opportunity. RDC is investing in the development of steel production, which is a more specialist and higher-margin sector of the castings market.
- Limited need for additional capital investment. Overall, the group has installed capacity to facilitate growth to revenue of c.£45m-50m with limited need for additional capital investment."
All these further placings since February 2022 4.7p, 3.55p, 3p.
Typo in last post 2/2/22
They are being honest : 'limited requirements for further large-scale capital investment'. History says give it 6 months. Never seen a 1p cash raise before, in fact, until now, never seen a 2p cash raise before. No doubt next one will come with share consolidation.