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No more investment for me to this share..as shareholders are diluted and again unvalued.. and it repeats again and again . It's very bad trend.
Sorry, I meant that the RNS was a result of participating in the placing.
After taking their further shares in the placing First Equity were due to be at 29m shares per the placing RNS, so they've actually bought a further 1m shares on top to get to their current 30m shareholding.
They must have taken Mitons stock.
Christ knows how this situation plays out.
Correction, this is after the placing:
As part of the Placing, First Equity Limited ("First Equity"), an existing Shareholder, has agreed to subscribe for 11,000,000 Placing Shares pursuant to the Placing at the Placing Price. Following Admission, First Equity will have an interest in 29,000,000 Ordinary Shares,
Https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/CMH/holding-s-in-company/16284009
Armstrong Investments Limited - up to 16.726727%
Note this is before the placing shares are admitted.
Great news.
I looked at the broker note, it was a like a compilation of 3 similar companies shall we say. There is only a page on each. My understanding is that these type of notes are really a mouth piece for the CFO of the company, so no analyses from broker. We already know the aspiration, now we have to wait and see if it can be achieved. It would be nice to hear some more detail on the contracts mentioned recently, perhaps an interview or RNS reach might cheer us all up.
They have really only repeated the forecasts from the annual report.
However what the annual report has, and this hasn't, are the risk statements in, for example, the going concern section.
I think my main lesson from this has been to carefully read those as well as the forecasts & broker notes. There are certainly some pertinent uncertainties in there which I shall be keeping an eye on in future updates.
I still doubled down and now have an average cost of 2.6p, mind.
Agreed.
However to make false misleading statements about the company's profitability would land them in serious trouble in the current regulatory environment.
Should be qualified that Cavendish are being paid for by Chamberlin as the broker they use. Because they're not independent they wouldn't give a negative assessment about their customer.
Cavendish have an updated note out today, reiterating their forecasts of £24m revenues, £1.4m EBITDA and 0.5p EPS this year to 31st May.
Extracts:
"Update.
The statement confirms the Board’s confidence in continued growth across its divisions over the medium term. For the current year, the statement reiterates previous guidance of full-year revenue growth of between 15% and 20%, and profit after tax of between £0.8m and £1.0m.
- Strategy. In the short term, strategy will focus on growth and achieving operational improvements across its businesses as the group’s turnaround continues.
- Petrel. At Petrel, the focus is to increase marketing to drive an increase in export sales to maintain the 18% growth achieved in the last financial year.
- Foundry division. In the Foundry division, both businesses are looking to enter new sub-sectors to drive revenue. CHC is investing in Spheroidal Graphite iron, a market estimated to represent approximately 70% of the total cast iron market representing a significant market opportunity. RDC is investing in the development of steel production, which is a more specialist and higher-margin sector of the castings market.
- Limited need for additional capital investment. Overall, the group has installed capacity to facilitate growth to revenue of c.£45m-50m with limited need for additional capital investment."
All these further placings since February 2022 4.7p, 3.55p, 3p.
Typo in last post 2/2/22
They are being honest : 'limited requirements for further large-scale capital investment'. History says give it 6 months. Never seen a 1p cash raise before, in fact, until now, never seen a 2p cash raise before. No doubt next one will come with share consolidation.
Placing today at 2p those who bought at the 5p placing 2/2/24 less then two years back must regret as fallen steadily since .
The company has stated -
“The Group has the installed capacity to grow organically to an estimated GBP45-50 million in revenue with limited requirements for further large-scale capital investment”
This would indicate that the company is working toward being self sufficient and ultimately moving away from fund raises
Over last 3.5 years, recall 6p, 6p, 5p, 4.7p, 3.55p, 3p and now 2p !!!? What price next cash raise ĺ?
I've been watching for a while. I think the placing has put me off. They sold thier buildings to rent back, now a big placing. Clearly burning through the cash at a high rate.
I'm concerned RDC are looking at steel, their strength in in iron. Its seems like an unnecessary distraction that's going to take up a lot of time to develop and make a market. They say there is not much competition and margins are better, I'm skeptical about that. From what I can tell steel Foundries are struggling in the uk with many shutting over the last 10 years. Those that remain like Goodwin, cooks and forgemasters already have the expertise, why try to compete with them. All that will happen is margins will get eroded.
All imo.
I'll still monitor as they do appear to be very cheap considering the size of the group. Someone setting up a group of Foundries like this now would need many times the current market cap to do it.
I too couldn't resist topping up around the placing price. Given the trading outlook disclosed further down the RNS which some may have missed it's hopefully a chance to get in at the very bottom (though of course this has been said before....!).
Bit if a rant from me but I'm entitled since I've been in this from about 9p.
Kevin Price looks like a cat in the headlights. Seriously if they can't make a profit on £20million revenues they might aswell shut the door and turn the lights off.
It's always next year, next quarter but just before that another placing.
They have just trashed all the positivity that was going on here. I'm guessing also that the hidden AGM announcement deep in the results and not via RNS was to hide from investors because this placing was going to happen.
Rant over!
Trevor Brown holds 35,421,915 Ordinary Shares representing 25.70 per cent. of the Company's issued share capital. Trevor Brown has agreed to subscribe for 3,550,000 Subscription Shares pursuant to the Subscription at the Placing Price. Following Admission, Trevor Brown will have an interest in 45,571,915 Ordinary Shares representing 25.41 per cent. of the Enlarged Share Capital.
So this has cost him £71k to retain the (almost) same stake in the company. I think unless you increase your stake in a placing you have not averaged down. I plan to try to calculate the cost of his holding. I would hazard a guess that it is at least 5p/share. He has also seen the value of his 25% crash today just like the rest of us. He must be about 50% under water at least. I know how it feels Trev! I was also here at 5p.
I’ve also added a few at 1.98
Hi Darton.
Agree with a lot of what you said, but TB is taking part in the share subscription from what I’ve read?
Yeah, I did the maths. For the mcap to remain the same, the placing should have been 2.3p.
However, that isnt usually how placings work. In the good times, this would have been a much smaller discount. The argument being that the EV has increased due to the cash achieved from the raise.
I still think Trevor will exit this with a profit or a MBO. So for me, having been here over 2 years the only option is to follow him. I have managed to increase my stake (he remained the same). I bought a few times today, and one of my buys was the 1.994. Im pretty fed up with this saga though I have to say. I think the price was low, and it is concerning that 830k might not be enough cash again - although the previous placing was for only £330k and it lasted nearly a year . A higher price could of achieved a little more cash. I am surprised that TB did not increase his stake, in that case he has not really averaged down. Should we be wary or excited about this? I always thought if we had a placing here it would be for TB to reduce his average and go to 29%, but in actual fact the cost of his 25% has now increased again by £71k.
I will be interested to see who bought the shares, or rather who is likely to keep them. Recall Miton sold around 2.5p, was this insightful trading from Gervaise? Does he get them back at a 20% discount.
My last point is that I would like to see the board really commit to RDC. To do this they should sell Petrel, and use the cash to erase all debts and deficits, and invest in capacity etc. One day when this is taken out, its going to get broken up anyway. It might even achieve a better multiple as a single focus company in the mean time.
Looks like tricky trev may have fallen victim to the sunk-cost fallacy here