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Mary - you hit the nail on the head
And the converse is true, when interest rates peak the markets bounces strongly initially and Inflexion means outsized stock market returns albeit fleeting but the turn is worth a capture.
Higher interest rates means the company can't offer much upside for 2024"
I agree with this and have pulled 20% from my trading account to stick in a cash isa at nearly 6%. I might take more out. IG offer me no interest on my cash, II a paltry amount. These markets have been horrendous, who needs the hassle stress of trying to make money in them when interest rates are high?
One for the bottom drawer, addBglad.
Not a recommendation of course :)
"higher interest rates means the company can't offer much upside for 2024" - wrong, see below
"Interest income - this is an important point. I recall before the zero interest rate period, spread betting companies made most of their profit from finance income - pocketing the interest earned on substantial client funds. Now that interest rates have gone up substantially, and rapidly, this should result in a dramatic increase in finance income for companies like CMCX. the TU on 27 July 2023 made this important point -
…however weaker client activity has been offset by stronger interest income, resulting in overall net operating income tracking at a similar run rate to the same period last year. "
Looks like a loss is possible for 2024. If net income comes out at the low point of £250m, and costs are £240m, and variable remuneration (assuming continuation of 2023 level) is £16m then that gives an operating loss of £6m. At £280m its an operating profit of £24m. Its a good business but the (almost structurally) low market volatility, a pretty good chance of a recession in multiple end markets and higher interest rates means the company can't offer much upside for 2024. With 7 months to go this year there is still a good chance of more forecast reductions if the macroeconomic indicators keep going the wrong way
Yes trading now below TNAV
Ya reckon ? good luck with that one
can't see it personally, 2019 revenues were £130m with £6m pbt but this year forecasting between £250m & £280m with costs generally unchanged from last year, the share count hasn't increased in that time either, .
I'm fortunate to a degree that I've managed to trade some of this on the way down while the dividend was welcome too and will be reinvested at a lower price, I'm hoping that the demotion from the ftse 250 is already baked in and after some sketchy research I'd say shares tend to recover after demotion which is against the expectation I know.
it's become a longer term hold than I would have liked however
I think 2019 low of 77p might be a good entry point
Been in CMC for years. I look long term but trade shares in companies in which I have long term holdings which I find a useful and profitable strategy. Do not get it right all the time of course. When markets turn back up I believe CMC will see increasing trades and SP will increase. I bought more this morning and am already seeing a profit on this morning's buy but obviously seeing overall loss on existing holdings as a result of today's trading update. Optimistic long term still. The unexpected happens so whatever shares you buy don't buy with money you might need in the short term.....like next month's rent etc! I know someone who did and the SP continued to fall big time before rising dramatically after a couple of years. Same thing could happen here but hopefully this may be the bottom. Think long term with CMC is my stance.
Its effectively aim now... worth about 300 million and steadily declining
CMC Markets is listed in the FTSE All-Share, FTSE 350 High Yield, FTSE 250, FTSE 350 indices.
CMC Markets is listed in the Brokerage Services sector.
....
I am afraid looking extremely dodgy future
Was tempted to buy but didnt. right call. This looks extremely uninvestible now with a loss to be expected. very underwhelming. sub £1.
Very stinky! "Subdued market conditions have continued through August with trading and investing net revenues trending 20% lower year-on-year. August in particular has seen a more challenging environment with markedly lower monetisation of client trading activity..."
Rsi completely on the floor, so due a decent bounce at least
Cabt decide if possibly a good share to be in now its fallen so much.... not touching is my instinct!
Oh dear Ria20, how many stocks you P&D and the newbies left holding the baby? try to be very nice to people now? lol
Agree andsoforth this is being shorted heavily....beware.... may fall significantly and you might be left holding the baby
Au contraire, if you look at previous demotions they start rising after demotion
This will probably see a further decline in price.
This stock looks to be in a bad place. By design or accident Cruddas keeps talking it into the sewer.
Sold a while back on sentiment of thinning revenues in a changing regime market, and lower margins in next 24 months as increased Capex bites without any indication of how those efforts will increase active customer base or total spend per user. Would consider re-entry if price goes to double figures, but a weak conviction play now until Cruddas is brought under control.
The market in general at the moment is a bit of a joke - it falls on bad news (understandable) but on days like today when news of better growth and less chance of stagflation it falls also. Plus, add in to the mix that when America announces news that points to trouble stateside, the FTSE always seems to fall more than the DOW!
Is CMC Markets seeing a 'pivot point'?
08:18 28 Jul 2023
Snapshot
CMC Markets says net income in line with last year in spite of a quieter market backdrop
CMC Markets has "a massive investment programme and lots of opportunities"
CMC Markets has value over longer term says broker
CMC Markets "at a pivot point" after full year results
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/927975/is-cmc-markets-seeing-a-pivot-point-927975.html