Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Be interesting to see if the price settles above that though?
Liberum analysts price target was 8.00 lowered from 8.86p
The SP was £8.50 in June and pre covid £9.50, I would be surprised and pretty disappointed if it went for less than £8. A 30% premium on a heavily depressed base of 6 would at least get to 7.80. Something too low would be seen as extremely opportunistic
7.50 GBP per share is my guess.
https://www.investegate.co.uk/clinigen-group-plc--clin-/rns/statement-re-possible-offer/202112021245024003U/
Shorts will be squeeming
LIBERUM CUTS CLINIGEN PRICE TARGET TO 780 (800) PENCE - 'BUY'
Unbelievable recovery. I wonder what time Paul Singer and his team wake up in New York. I bet he's an early riser. 7am London time is 2am in NY. Volume today is 4x the average for November, close to 2% of total issued shares and only half way through the day. I think we will see a notification from Elliot or another of the institutions tomorrow
...for once. Someone's buying . Good to see.
Are people starting to focus on services now today's news is out there? I'm confident here and mindful of this statement from the results...
"The outlook for Services is positive with a continued strong pipeline and a good number of new high value projects to deliver revenues in FY2022. There are currently more than 350 opportunities across the pipeline with a combined value of more than £80m"
Wild ride there, down to 540 and back, someone is loading, Eliot must have taken some more, if they were happy to buy over 6 then at that price they couldn't resist. Expect to see some more action from them in the near future
At least get the title of the RNS right. Incompetence of the highest order
I wish I could see Elliot's reaction! I wonder if they are increasing their stake.
Interesting that guidance hasn't changed for this year or next. Although is that pinned on 'continued pipeline strength' rather than conversion. The assumption was Erwinase US sales to commence next quarter after approval this quarter. After building inventory and a relatively slow rollout I can't imagine they had it contributing much this year. A decent chunk of Porton's fee must have been linked to approval which will also help.
The rest of the business must be doing pretty well, 7% down seems a little overdone but the market has spoken
Doubly Incompetent. Porton for getting the science /submission not adequately designed / documeNted sufficiently to get approval. Clin for putting out a materially incorrect RNS
But atleast they corrected it promptly. Complete response letters are not uncommo but are largely avoidable with good regulatory engagement in the design of the trials
Rather misleading RNS headline!
Good to note Questor [ DT ] gives sound reasons for keeping faith with Clinigen. As one who has taken a beating, investing here,will for now stay with them.
I'd say that their case would be that the business has been mismanaged and that if management focused solely on services then its EBITDA should be much higher. The 33m is historic, consensus has total EBITDA growing 8-12m p.a.a over the next few years, I don't know the breakdown between services/non services but if a lot of its services then that would change the equation. The healthcare sector is hot right now, there should be loads of new deals in the pipeline which could support higher future earnings, how much is future earnings potential worth?
EV say 820 equity and 320 debt total 1140.
Services EBITDA is 33
Product EBITDA is 90
If services is valued at 15x =495
Value of product = 645 a@ multiple of 7.
Not a slam dunk for PE to take over and make a lot of cash from.
Elliot wants to split the business up. Believes the sum of the parts is more than the whole and that a good business has been mismanaged. The services business is the jewel. The acquisition of UDG was on an EV/EBITDA multiple of over 15x. Clinigen is valued at half that.
https://news.sky.com/story/activist-elliott-floats-break-up-of-pharma-services-group-clinigen-12404003
What is the likely outcome for the future of Clinigen with Elliot taking an increased holding in the company.
Looks like BoA was buying for Elliot….stake of 7% confirmed.
We need some positive news to flush out the short sellers, irrespective of what BoA do. It doesn't help having an endless flow of news on Covid, whilst the waiting list for other life threatening conditions in the UK and elsewhere grows endlessly longer and treatments are postponed, which hurts Clinigen.
You need to read that Rns again mate
However shorts do need to close out here...highly borrowed stock @ 6.2% end of Oct
Probably both….and persuade a client to make a bid.
Question is did Bank of America buy to make a profit from a higher SP, or buy to lend to short seller clients and profit from the lending of the stock?
And no sign of any director buying
even at these levels...
That's how I read it.
appear to have sold out if I am reading
the RNS correctly?.