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@NOFEAR - Here is the downgrade link :-( https://www.pilling.co.uk/home/profiles/news-and-research/external-news/article/?category=news-and-announcements&slug=sp-downgrades-cineworlds-long-term-debt-on-expected-near-term-liquidity-pressures&story_id=7657247#
I'm long and holding despite £17k down on Cineworld.
@indepthwins
Thankfully, I was not too heavily invested. As stated lesson learned, and the losses were immaterial in the grand scheme of things.
I do wonder whether some of the posters on this share are so blinkered that they actually believe their own hype around how this share is without question destined for imminent enhanced performance. It gives me no pleasure to see a business like CINE on its knees due to no fault of its own, nor those who’ve pumped substantial sums into its shares suffering heavy losses, so my wishes of good luck are genuine.
It's a lesson which most of us have learned one way or another.
The very same rampers @£1 here are busy deramping elsewhere - that's just a waste of time and diminishes quality of discussion. What we have here is the possibility of dilution and potential delays in movies, vaccines and therapeutics. The counter argument seems to be that the vaccine will appear and we will be back to normal very soon.
I'm hoping for a CINE recovery early next year, but reality tells me that it just needs one thing to go wrong; will Bond get delayed? Will a vaccine be safe? Will the share price get diluted? Will the company split? That's just the top level and deeper level variables make this share volatile.
What is needed is an RNS that is realistic and provides a clear path to recovery. Otherwise we are at the behest of derampers on this board and God help us.
Got out of this share last Friday, crystallising a loss, which I don’t like doing. It felt like it was going to go the same way as IAG, which unfortunately, I’m invested in. Have to say, the constant chastisement of any negative comments from posters that refuted £1 or £1.50 by Christmas over the weeks was not helpful in making rational decisions, and it looks like those questioning whether CINE is such a great share had valid points. I got mugged into believing the hype on here around Mooky’s speech will lift the shares, profits at 10% capacity and Tenet being the white knight to put CINE back on track - I should have known better; lesson learned. Good luck to those with more nerve than I had.
That’s not even correct, global city holdings own 20%
If you are going to post, surely you research your information
This is driving me mad
Major shareholders are:
Global city holdings 29%
Polaris 7.4%
Standard life aberdeen plc 5.88%
Jangho 5.76%
Nortust 4.66%
Aviva 4.55%
Account for 57.25% of the total shares, and some have increased their position or new entrants.. big names guys and a reason why i am not selling any time soon.... DYOR and gla...
I doubt Mooky is looking at only owning Cinema city. Nor do I believe he could just buy this out. Most of the other major shareholders are funds which bought in at £2 and more. So would need buying out. So either someone buys the whole company or the company continues as it is now.
I wonder if the other main shareholders will allow for the sale of City Cinemas back to Mooky and at what price this would be doable.
Cineworld ownership is complicated. HSBC, Barclays and Israel bank main lenders, but HSBC biggest share holder apart from Mooky and family. So if Mooky steps away, HSBC takes it all. Seeing as Chinese making inroads to buying HSBC. Jangho could be doing the same to Cineworld. China and Chinese companies using COVID to stretch its economic reach around the world.
You have clearly missed that China is a case study. They also saw the covid first.
Just a few important facts that go to weaken your scaremongering.
I don't remember seeing a cineworld in china. I must have missed it.
I'm still thinking there is a possibility that Mooky could bail out and buy back City Cinemas.
IDT, hope you are not implying what I think you are when you say, "The Chinese have diff movie taste." Cos that'd need some serious introspection on ur side. Apart from that, all the ramping and deramping don't mean sh*t.
They are NOT formulating a conclusion. They are uncertain. Like you and I, they await the data and developments and global market sentiment.
All what makes Cineworld such an exciting share to be in.
If you have a crystal ball, take it out now and share your prediction.
I just took mine out and it says:
1. Covid cases will taper
2. Hospital admissions and mortality will remain flat
3. Global economies will recover on the back of vaccine news (read: consumer confidence returns)
4. Leisure and hospitality will bounce because of what so many have missed out and eager to embrace when normality resumes
Good luck to my investors
This is what was in the report:
"The absence of the waivers and the uncertainty over the short term as a result of the ongoing Covid-19 situation represent material UNCERTAINTIES which are too severe for us to express a CONCLUSION on the interim financial statements."
Paraphrased?
1. We cannot formulate a conclusion
2. We cannot say this will default or succeed
3. The jury is out
So this is down to investor risk profile and appetite.
As for share dilution, I said this need only be considered in March (6 months from now), which I remind you we await some very appealing updates:
1. VACCINE NEWS
2. Bond and WW84 box office admissions
3. NY and LA to reopen (US to maintain low cases and control)
All the while I continue to assess performance in the case study that is China. Booming and fully recovered, and utilising a HVAC with filtration. The same that is afforded to schools and workplaces which remain OPEN.
*find = fund
indepth the raise/ dilution should be happening now BEFORE CINE default. This could go from CCC minus to a Default status very soon.
If I was CINE and there was so much uncertainty, I'd find raise more before the terms of a new loan become untenable.
People are free to deramp and talk amongst themselves, personally I prefer to look a glass half full, and will focus on the positives.
There needs to be some reality with the optimism. That we are not getting. Many were touting a 100p share price this month on the basis of being too optimistic. This kind of exaggerated optimism just helps to make the share unstable. If we can move away from the ramping, it would help us achieve a more balanced understanding of where this share price should settle.
Great post rs as usual. You are my rock.
We are about 3 months behind China, so come December, we will see a very different picture.
This is what was in the report:
"The absence of the waivers and the uncertainty over the short term as a result of the ongoing Covid-19 situation represent MATERIAL UNCERTAINTIES which are TOO SEVERE for us to express a conclusion on the interim financial statements."
Investors in cinema need only look across to the Far East. Assess how Chins have seen a recovery in the economy akin to a V, have witness cinema admission, at 50% capacity, mind you, drum up a total box office recovery. Now, consider than China is seeing such a good handle on Covid, it is now looking at increasing cinema capacity to 75%.
Quick maths;
1. China current screen capacity = 50%.
Box office = 100% recovered (actual)
2. China projected screen capacity = 75%.
Box office = 150% recorded (forecast)
Is there a vaccine available in China?
Yes, there is and they have been administrating this for some time and importantly have been seeing their numbers under control and are well advanced in their economic recovery.
This thread is quickly digressing to covid and vaccines which is understandable because this stock is a recovery play. The vaccine will absolutely be a silver bullet. Why? It will instil consumer confidence and as others rightfully point out will see studios much more willing to release their expensive content, that they have DELIBERATELY avoided streaming to PVOD because of the lacklustre experience, reduced revenue and piracy concerns.
This share will naturally fluctuate but, I’ll go by what the BOD issued in their RNS and presentation. Sufficient liquidity to remain in OPERATION and performing as-is until September 2021 (12 months from the H1 results). Thus, I see share dilution as an option that will only be explored in March 2021 (Q1) as that will afford 6 months before the taps run dry.
For now, I await three pieces of news:
1. Debt covenant wavers
2. Bond maintaining the release date of November 2020
3. Vaccine news
The number of filtered comments I’m seeing, coupled with individuals posting this afternoon that I’ve never seen before tells me we just sit tight.
Today was orchestrated for a reason, hold your nerve and you will find out why; personally I think it will be good news, but you have to feel comfortable with your own position.
More than trebled my holding today at these prices. CINE is going nowhere and one day these irritating and very weird purveyors of false doom will scuttle back under the sideboards.
DYOR
GLA
Be brave
Don’t let the bas**Ed’s grind you down
Again, if that's the case then say goodbye to society as we know it. Cineworld share price will be the least of your worries. Even those that aren't even invested, but continually live on this BB.
Incase you are not aware of the mutations, look up D614G as an example.
Covid 19 does mutate and the impact it will have could be as likely more virulent than less. It is for now mutating less than the cold/flu, but make no mistake that a single mutation can sufficient to make matters worse.