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Hi all, imo the SP is being kept surpressed while negotiations continue, whenever good news arrives the SP rises, then sell orders appear and keep it pegged back, but if it still rises we get leaks (generally negative) on negotiations, speculation on films going to streaming / pvod, degrades etc etc, while some companys downgrading then buying cheap shares... for M0oky having a lower SP helps in negotiations as it probably rules out any RI / Placement as not enough revenue would be raised, and M0oky / large holders dont want dilution of any kind. With Cinema sites sold and leased back there is not much in terms of tangible assets to sell, so liquidating would not help lenders. Whats left? The lenders cant afford to simply write off billions in loans and they know Cineworld when fully up and running is a money making machine, so IMO the wavers will be agreed, debt will be re-financed and extra lending will be agreed that protects liquidity and ensures survival until the vaccine is rolled out and the blockbusters return... when wavers etc are signed the foot will come off the break and the SP will rise, the shorters at this point will probably get caught out.... but this is just imo.... anyway GLA and DYOR
Broker1 you have made a point here. Cine can weather this storm and come back as a money making machine, but for now it has to stop bleeding money and manage the debt. The sp reflects the closures due to the bond movie being pushed back and a covid christmas with people staying at home. I have no idea how things are going to go with cine, i just hope the current share price is the bottom and from here we move back to the 50's.
Only with debt covenant waivers sorted.
Possible movie releases brought forward and we might get lucky with a vaccine by xmas.
Anyone know situation with wonder woman release ?
I heard a rumour that they were thinking about valentines day for wonder women, but who knows maybe they would hold. If they were thinking along vaccine lines it would be more certain a decent number of people have had both shots of vaccine by that time (assuming we had one).
It's interesting that even with streaming companies able to offer money for Bond now instead of in 6 months time with cinema (its obviously much better to receive money now) they still can't offer enough to tempt the studio. Imagine once cinemas are open again and streaming companies don't even have this advantage anymore.