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Excellent post as always CJ. I wonder is it up there with events for now though. Might be worth taking some off the table in all honesty though the spread makes it hard to trade these.
As mentioned some time back the Dudson purchase - which they stated had no material impact on there last really good results, may just be twigging too.
They were stated as a close competitor - so that's circa £20m disappeared from the competitor market + Churchill bought various pattern / process rights + some of the machinery, without taking over the whole business.
This means that on a relatively high but fixed cost and overhead basis, they can add a significant amount of extra production that would resultingly be at very high margins.
The final thing to consider is that they have a relatively low number of shares, so on little volume the price swings (and incidentally absurd MM spreads!) exaggerate this.
At present the quality of this share means a deserved premium, with I believe further to go.
Also, it made a new all time high which many traders look to trade as there is now no resistance.
Thanks me. I put a small short on when I saw the insider selling after the PMP warning. Sure fire way to send any stock up!
Is something afoot? Maybe investors saw certain things and have started to pile in.. Maybe stocking up for xmas or making reservations for the Santa Claus rally. Trading update is early January son i can't see what has inspired this bout of buying. Very pleased holder.
on this? A pattern of very strong buying interest has pushed the price tag past 1700p. The opposite of a cup and handle may be forming.the reason rise has been more than enough for me to dine out on even though I don;t know what lies beneath it.
Actually not options after all so apologies.
Churchill China plc (AIM: CHH), the manufacturer of innovative performance ceramic products serving hospitality markets worldwide, announces that on 4 October 2018 certain PDMRs undertook the following transactions in the ordinary shares of 10 pence each in the capital of the Company ("Ordinary Shares") at a price of 1,125 per pence per ordinary share:
Ordinary Shares sold
Resultant Interest in Ordinary Shares
Resultant Interest in Ordinary Shares (%)
David O'Connor
The fact they sold last year at 1125p shows their actions are no barometer of price to date.
Chief Executive Officer
2,500
49,020
0.45
David Taylor
Finance Director
2,000
59,555
F15, Korea weighed on Portmeiron which also has had performance issues for about a year. I wouldn't read too much into the sales as it is probably the Director's cashing in on options. I had been looking at selling PMP after the first PW and got whacked by the second so exited on a loss. I will certainly be out in CHH's first hint of slowdown but for now I am running this winner.
When you couple it with sales by the CEO & FD and a profit warning from Portmeirion it does make you wonder if the good times are over though.
Former CEO, current non exec selling £380k shares because he is retiring after 46 years - can't really blame him, he can't take it with him into the next world !
Having purchased a controlling share of Furlong from Dudson, Churchill has now purchased the rest of the shares that were owned by Portmerion. This gives a greater control of it's own supply chain and another source of wider profit. As it was purchased out of their cash pile, I consider this another good use of money. Looking amazingly solid and growing into the difficult economic and Brexit headwinds. It still seems to rate as a contrarian buy.
Thanks CJ! Some chunky buys to boot. At least investors are nibbling above 1610p and the price has held up. Maybe next week will see the return of investors to trading and see this one as a chance to buy in.
….as a p.s. I correspondingly can't think why anyone would be selling them,
as it shows more sells than buys today!?!
Hi Fallingknife - and fortunately a misnomer here!
1st/2nd half eps last year 24 & 41p is 1600p / 65 = pe24
This year 1st 31p / 2nd say conservative 49p is 1600 / 80 =pe20?
This is conservative because if the 2nd half increase is the same as the 1st half or more it is 52p or more.
Coupled with this is £13.1m of cash or circa £1.20 a share so pe could be 17/18
In fact the biggest current danger is not been able to grow capacity fast enough, with the Dudson acquisition helping Brexit wise as they say they were going to need a European warehouse anyway in circa 2 yrs but brought it forward.
Being a very old codger I bought most of my Churchill shares between 15-20 years ago priced around £1.50-£2.50 (i.e. now 20% divi on original shares at 30p div) , but a short while back bought some more near £16 as I believe they could be over £20 in 2-5 years with current momentum.
Forget some of the tech companies, simple get rich slow suits me fine!
Agreed CJ. Do you know what the forward p/e is? It must be falling as it beats expectations. H1 adjusted earnings up 24%. Morning star has this on a current P/E of 24 which for a growing company is not too high as long as it keeps delivering.
Yes really strong and again with a relatively fixed cost base they seem to extract big profit gains from modest turnover growth.
Was really pleasantly surprised to see they said 'There was little direct impact on revenues from the Dudson asset purchase in the first half year' but 'are expected to increase substantially in the second half of 2019'.
I had expected this to drive the growth as Dudson had £20m t/o - but I wouldn't be surprised if they later on issue another '..beating market expectations'.
It's a high PE ratio, but a genuine growth stock at present and investing in further growth from a pile of cash = a genuine Aim stock not to be moaned about!
Very nice jump in profit and a hike in the divi to boot. Seems to be weathering the Brexit fiasco quite well and I like the cautionary approach to the outlook which will be useful in tempering expectations. It seems to me that they expect some of the Capex to hit paydirt in h2. The weak pound will help competitiveness and market penetration of North America and other areas is still early stage. Lots to like here but I suppose it will depend on hwo the markets percieve these results short term to see if we gain traction. Longterm this is a very solid company which is performing exceedingly well.
with the update as PMP was struggling and I thought that maybe the sector was wilting under Brexit uncertainty. Up 9% today but I have a feeling it may have some more to run. It is tightly held, thinly traded and recently come off its highs of 1600p. It is not flagging today either with sellers getting above bid price. I would be happy if it held around here before an inevitable boost when results are out.
is starting to show a nice pattern. Pretty reassuring in the wake of PMP's PW this week. There has been a couple of sales this morning which happen invariably after an inline statement. I was thinking of unloading some but I may hang on as it could have further to go. It will be underpinned somewhat by today's reassuring noise coming from the company.
a new ask in short order. A buyer has just paid full ask of 1620p so I expect 1640 or 1650p can't be too far away on the ask..
that Brexit has been weighing on CHH and PMP for while and now there is some visibility for six months investors are licking the patterns off the plate to get at these. Glad I held my nerve so far on these rather than cash in. They can be volatile though as I never understood why this fell to 830p maybe 6months ago. The trick is to find where they are almost fully valued.
This could be another bargain - as bought from receivers - and is where they and Portmeirion bought their Furlong holdings share from.It seems it had a t/o of cica £20m and made a £2m loss.This would have been a considerable competitor, and picking up the name / brands & new accounts + pick of machinery without the rest of the baggage seems excellent - especially as they hadn't planned for it - '...complementary to our existing strategic plans).Looks good to me for another £1 a share when it sinks in, in due course
I don't think the market has fully absorbed the value of today's deal. Especially as due to the unwarranted sell-off we are about 200p below a fair price imo. Should be earning s enhancing from day 1 and provide more scale for the company as wekk as being funded from exisiing cash. Bravo!
today after being sold down. There is a pattern emerging and not just one on their plates of unwarranted sell-offs before bouncing off the bottom. Prelims are around 27th March and should be good unless there has been a rapid deterioration in its sales.
Trading update coming very shortly, and if the statement at interim are anything to go by this is too low by about £2 again, even knocking some more off for lower market expectations.
With 63% exported the lower pound offsets Brexit issues, and it has shown real product sale progress. With relatively high fixed overheads the profit will far exceed the sales increase at present.