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There's no stopping this share at the moment! With forecast EPS of around 15p, an undemanding 20 P/E implies an SP of £3.
Current weakness follows Barclays downgrade. However, Barclays price targets are notoriously unreliable. The good news, therefore, is that this creates a buying opportunity in the run up to the next trading update in November.
As always
Is anybody their ...with your man recomending more spending on defence this has to be good for chemring
Shares seem to have settled at 12% down, after the initial overreaction of 24%. The 4 Sep update should be interesting.
Share price falling as a result of what happened is definitely NOT an over reaction ...try telling that to the families !
(BTW ...I had 28 years experience of working in a very similar area ...I'm now retired).
The problem they now have is that the HSE will close the building down where the production is carried out. It might be localised to one manufacturing cell but they will not be able to carry on with the manufacturing of that particular product. There will be an investigation as to what happened and it might mean significant changes to working practices or the HSE might simply not allow production if they believe the risk is too great..period!
Convincing the HSE that the problem is understood and steps can be taken to ensure no repeat can happen is NOT easy.
SP drop seems like the usual overreaction. Sure there'll be an uncomfortable hit to profits for FY18, but this should be largely recouped in FY19 when deliveries are resumed, so it's essentially just timing. Could be a good time to top up therefore.
Would be nice if the SFO cloud were lifted from this share. We're already six months down the line, so I imagine the company already have a good idea of the likely outcome.
...finally cracked - and on no news that I'm aware of. Where to next I wonder?
is definitely proving a tough nut to crack, but we're almost there and then I've got 2.45 pencilled in. It'll probably take positive news from the SFO to take us there...
if the rise today has anything to do with the Saudi visit?
Looks like a relatively minor matter, but enough to take the shine off some great results, which would otherwise have propelled the shares above 200p, IMHO.
Ah ha! Good news and the type that will help the share price (hopefully) move above 200p. If it can move beyond 217p then it's clear blue sky.
Without good news, CHG is not going with the bullish flow of most stocks. What's up? I'm verging on bearish if this continues.
Well, that's your opinion. For me I've spent too much money on fundamentally solid companies who's share prices then fell for no apparent reason. Using technical analysis has taken the emotion out of my trading and has made it more rigorous. Of course fundamentals are the bedrock of a growing share price, but relying on the price as the one truth means I trade it as I see it. So, I hope you understand where I'm coming from. PS: However, you trade, even if you pick stocks with a pin, if it's profitable then good on you.
There is NO evidence that tech analysis has any meaningful use in investing! The FT said it about 10 years ago and recently repeated it after further debate. However, fundamental analysis does work, since it basically assesses what the company is achieving in money terms. Chemring as an example will succeed or fail depending on whether the management takes the right decisions over time. What it has going for it right now is the sale of its new 40mm grenade. It is executing (right word in this context!) a big mid-East contract at high margins right now, which will positively impact results and hence the share price aver the next 6 months. Pompies
Good question as I have covered a huge number of courses, books, YouTube videos and articles. However, the best plact to start is by reading Technical Analysis of the financial markets by John J Murphy. Good Luck.
AL75 - very interested in learning to read the chart patterns, any advise on where to start?
Today's move (so far) is a breakout from it's flag pattern, with no substantive news. The market works in mysterious ways. IMHO #buy
The proposed increase in US defence spending has only nudged CHG's share price. So if it's to break its current range, there needs to be more news flow.
Tough range to beat but Chemring is looking very good as daily and weekly moving averages are all in alignment. RSI and MACD are also the same so there's no divergence acting as a warning. The last leg up from 170ish is now consolidating and there's every chance it will push up more. The downward trend reversed at 156p and now it's above its 200 MA I'm bullish.
195 - 205..... If this technical resistance can be broken then happy days.