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I've got a few shares in this dog. Bought around 8p. I knew I should have sold when they went over 20p. Now they're right back where I bought thema few years back. I'm reading all the bullish stuff on here and wondering when they will start moving back towards to 20p.
Then I read a post by hsfinch on ADVFN which made a plausible bear case by suggesting that it will take something like 10 years for Chariot to see any money out of Anchois.
Any thoughts on that from serious invetors here?
@harrycarter when you say hsfinch made a 'plausible bear case' are you talking about this peculiar and incoherent rant from a couple of days ago? you have a low bar for defining plausibility.
"the **** show (continued)ap - how about this. frenchy takes control of the gas pillar and jock stays on as chief technical officer. frenchy - d'accord. jock's a geek. i'm a businessman. jock - will i still get bonuses ap. ap - indeed if you earn em. julie - thats a win win. we have an extra pillar and i get to keep my sneaky peeps up jock's kilt. ap - fellas here's the problem. we've got 5 million in the bank. thats only gonna last us a year. and we aint gonna see any free cash-flow from anchois before 2032 at the earliest.frenchy - d'accord. what about the next tranche from enog. thats 15 million. ap - only if they take the optional 10%. we cannot rely on that. and dont forget hydrogen. if total cash calls us, we're sunk. julie - i thought anchois gas was coming in 2028. ap - it is but our share has to pay back the enog carries. its gonna take 4 or 5 years to clear the debt. frenchy - oooh la la. i was hoping to retire to st tropez in 5 years. what can we do. jock - thats where i come in. ill find more gas and black stuff. think new frontiers, gushers, ten baggers, big bonuses. there's nothing to worry about fellas. ap - thats the spirit jock. and we get rid of the hydrogen thing, the generator rental thing and the onshore sdx cast-off thing. weve gotta pull our horns in and focus. julie - i'm sure malcy will spin that in the markets if i show him a good time.ap - great fellas. let's go down to harrys bar to celebrate."
"Any thoughts on that from serious invetors here?"
I am a serious investor and I think here is a strong possibility of onshore success leading to revenues sooner than 10 years but we need to hit a drill now. Even then I assume its going to be a while to build infrastructure to realise onshore sales, but in my head this was 1-2 years rather than 10 years.
Interesting you rue not selling at 20p but not at 14.5p when you were saying the directors were only in it for themselves and the onshore would all be dusters (in hindsight this jumps out as a shockingly good call so far). As a serious investor I did sell around then - I was worried at the sudden jump to onshore - but I have since bought back in in the 7's as I do think the onshore could now be fortuitous and the offshore looks in a better place too.
Mr plot.
Chariot only repay the enog any anchois capex funded by enog, from 50% of its 20% of net cashflow. So chariot generate free cashflow from day 1 of anchois production.
Jimmy
No not this post. A later one with estimate of when Chariot will pay back borrowings if Anchois moves forward.
Harry, I refer you to my post of 13 September 2023.
Harrycarter,
When it comes to the question of 'how long' most of it depends on the farm in partner who then becomes operator.
One of the primary reasons Chariot chose to partner with Energean is due to the speed at which Energean moved their last asset (the Karish gas field) into production.
When it comes to these big gas deposits, it's the proving of resources that takes the time, not laying production infrastructure. Energean seems to move quickly into production once they have proven the resource.
For example; By 2022 Energean had proven 1.4Tcf of gas in the Karish gas field offshore Israel and in October 2022 moved to production. Through 2023, they went from zero to 4 production wells in just over 1 year which is impressive for any O&G company. By the end of 2023, gas production capacity reached an equivalent of 6.5bcm per year. Total production of gas and fluids was 87k boepd.
Production from Karish is continually being increased through 2024 as the FPSO is optimised. Already, within 2 years, the Karish field has become a significant supplier to the Israeli gas market. Energean has stated that it wants to do exactly the same thing in Anchois and become a major player in Morocco.
If Chariot had chosen to partner with a Super-Major, maybe it would take up to 10 years for Chariot to see any revenue from the Anchois field as Super-Majors tend to have large portfolios of assets that they slowly work through to production, and maybe that's why the punter over on ADVFN was talking in such generalised terms of a decade, because he/she thinks Energean operate like a Super-Major, when they've proven to be a much more nimble mid-sized player (with cash) and a history of moving quickly to production.