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Hi Sotolo,
Sorry owe you an apology, I first read your post in haste, you weren't questioning Andrew,Maguires integrity, I was mistaken!
When I read your post more thoroughly I realise you were expressing some quite justified frustrations which most of us l have with the supposedly regulated markets.
Amazing how many successful pundits and treaders boast about their trading prowess post event!
That said I am sceptical about P.R, (public relations)
Sunshine Profits sounds just like so many of these schemes that want your subscriptions!
Tibbs thanks for the link to PR, II don’t follow His advice, if I had I would be far richer, instead I stick around here Hoc and THS watching dreams slip ever further away. If I followed PR I would sell it all now and avoid probably losing another half! All the best and as ever praying your AM is right one day!
Paul do you mean Tiger by the Tail, if so he was banned from LSE for sensibly saying a company’s share price would tumble, many on these boards only approve of bulls. Having sold out of Cey near the top, with his Russian knowledge he did brilliantly at the start of the war, then at the start of April he suggested THS might not be so good (since -30%) SLP better (since flat), also suggested Anglo Easter Plantations AEP (I didn’t buy as palm oil and pretty horrid but since up 20%), Kist (+15%) while Hoc has fallen a further 35% and Cey is about level. You can see him saying all this to me over on the THS advfn board at the start of April so I should say he is pretty brilliant while I am a dunce sticking with THS and HOC tho at least Cey has level pegged.
PM is not a old mate, I have only been reading him the last year, but he seems to call it more right than most of the others having been bearish, then in advance the rise 1680-1800 saying it would be a dead cat bounce and on down again, we shall see. But at least he gives good economic reasons rather than conspiracy theories and tea leaves.. My old mate is Gary Wagner who I have followed for years and seems pretty good, I met him in Hawaii when he took me out for some fab prawns from a van. As for AM he will have to be right an awful lot to draw level with the proverbial dart throwing monkey, hope he finally is even if the explanation will probably be wrong imho
Sorry Sotolo,
Here is the link I should have posed to your old mate PR!
Hi, I’m Przemyslaw Radomski, but please feel free to call me PR. In the next few paragraphs I’ll do my best to describe my personal story and let you know what I can do for you.
https://www.sunshineprofits.com/about-us/company/przemyslaw-radomski/
Looking forward to hearing how PR helps you beat the market!
Sotolo,
You are wrong regrading Andrew Maguire, he has the courage to record the broadcast on a Wed which is prior to the major announcements from the FED etc, and he is also right on issues such as the amount increased illegally mined and under the counter gold being traded and exchanged for oil contracts at 30% profits which is helping to push up energy prices amongst other things.
As the year progresses so does flurry of activity in the exchanging of contracts and closing of positions by big institutions in the lead up to full Basel 3.
It takes a great deal of courage and commitment to speak out against the establishment and any unfair and corrupt practice, far easier to lay down or go away.
But there you go each to there own.
You seen to value this bloke, possibly you will make your fortune following his advice?
Hi, I’m Przemyslaw Radomski, but please feel free to call me PR. In the next few paragraphs I’ll do my best to describe my personal story and let you know what I can do for you.
Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA - Biography | Sunshine Profits
I dont watch the Andrew Maguire things, but he does seem to have been banging on about things changing for a long time.
Kinesis, Basel 3 etc? Not wanting to upset Mr T or anything about AM.
However there is something wrong in a system thats lets many times more "paper gold" be issued than actually gets dug out of the ground.
Regarding people predicting------------maybe it is my perception but there seem to be more wrong calls than right. Im hoping that your call of £3 a share comes true for us soon Sotolo!!!!! I could do with some gold toe capped boots for the garden.
The day traders seem to make good calls but then lose out in a biggish rise. Making Hay used to be like that. I think we are about 1.5 times higher than when he got out many years ago and that is not taking the divis into account.
Quite irate Tiger claims to have been calling it right until recently and will no doubt claim he has made more elsewhere than he has lost in the recent rise here.
I was looking at one of the dividend sites recently and they were proclaiming that they are right 44%of the time. isnt that worng 56% of the time then? Monkey Darts anyone?
Hi Dasut,
Thank you for the explanation , from your explanation which are the most appropriate ore processing methods chosen needs some consideration a technical understanding of mine operations, possibly then the original team were out of their depth and it wasn't until a more experienced team confirmed which plant was the most appropriate that was a deciding factor in abandoning the project .
I assume there are likely operational cost differences between the two different processes
https://www.911metallurgist.com/blog/gold-ore-roasting-techniques
https://www.mogroup.com/insights/case-studies/mining-and-metals/robust-low-cost-biox-process-at-fosterville-gold-mine/
It would have helped share holders understand the Cey managements reasoning to abandon B.W. if a brief explanation of these issues had been given at the time
Tibbs
Talking of all the pundits who tend to be a bit worse than monkey throwing at a dart board with half marked up and half down, who are at least right 50% of the time (but then have no interest in sucking punters in to buy) this from Slater over on the Hochschild board “ I find it comical how Andrew Maguire can still come on every week with such conviction and enthusiasm about 'silver to imminently break the financial system' and pretend that the previous 999 nonsense predictions never happened. Maybe he has amnesia and genuinely think it's the first time he's said it.” So do I and on gold, and all the others who have been calling on it shooting to the stars and then when wrong again blame the lack of buyers on conspiracies, quite Trumpian in this fake news world of his and his friends’ creation.
Tibbs I saw first hand the problems related to refractory ore at Bogosu in Ghana where a roaster was installed because this was at the time the way to process such difficult ore that can't be leached using cyanide.
The roaster didn't work so the initial company involved in the mine had to be baled out the funding organisation. Eventually a BIOX plant was introduced and as far as I am aware is still in use.
Reading between the lines because I can't find anything to substantiate the reason for Batie West being non core, would suggest together with Lycopodium , the new team decided the ore body at BW just wasn't viable for Centamin and their knowledge/Experience base.
Hi Dasut,
Thank you, it would be good if at least there is a chance to get something back, lets hope so! Also Centamin's never delivering the promised updates on these projects erodes investors trust and raises suspicions about the managements integrity and professional abilities.
As you rightly point out Egypt has not been without its problems, the farcical court case is still awaiting either a ruling, or declaring null and void should Law 32 ever be ratified by the SCC!
The withdrawn diesel subsidy dispute remains unresolved and although it may only be $20 odd million or so that amount of cash could be very useful at these times , but even though Centamin has a very strong case and would most likely win the Egyptian authorities would then have very great difficulty in paying that amount back all at once!
Tibbs Batie West was only part of the deal with Ampella and as I say if they get a couple of mines up and running we are on the right track. So not entirely a sow's ear but has delayed them getting into production but better late than never.
Opinion of Kees Dekker-
About Batie, it is non-core in my mind because the very low grade makes it unattractive given the risks associated with a project in Africa and a political high-risk country at that.
Doropo is better, but still not fantastic.
No wonder they downgraded Batie!
Quite so Mr Bond, it doesn't fit now and it didn't fit then!
But that said they BOD are paid handsome remuneration packages to safeguard the best interests of the company and as such they should have carried out the appropriate due diligence!
The region has always been a basket case place of political instability and coups, that surely must have excluded it from fitting he company core projects criteria, and as you rightly point out the other obvious questions are why was the sale being made by Ampella and how many other miners were interested in buying?
In the meantime over £100 million down the lavatory!
Any of the jersey BOD that were responsible for this crass deal and the near ruination of Sukari should be sent down the yellow brick road!
Fair comments 3Bear,
I was also once a Vodafone holder although I got out after an acquaintance who held as senior position there had been complaining that the company was haemorrhaging funds on ill thought through acquisitions and growth obsession , as it turned out he was right to be concerned!
As you say a coup in BK , part of the extra costs of mining in West Africa?
As Dasut mentioned it seems now apparent the the Jersey BOD were indeed sold a "Sows ear" rather than the "Silk Purse"!
But then it all comes back to a lack of due diligence before buying the permits on the part of the Jersey BOD and to some extent the behaviour of Andrew Pardey and others who were on the ground
That said I fail to see how there can be any excuse for the failures of the BOD with regard to Sukari, they were either ignorant of fit and proper mining practice, or complicit in the deceit of share holders by allowing the operation to be run on a wing and a prayer basis for short term gain!
3 Bear, wise words,, and great Horgan I appears to have a strategy to get it together on ounces and costs - hugely sensible to reduce the divi rather than pay it out of our cash savings - particularly in such a dangerous gold market. When I Posted that I rashly bought some more recently, when gold touched 1680 and Cey was 77, I said I expected it to bounce to near 1800 before continuing the fall and much further. Well we are there and US CPI comes out today which could be the catalyst. I very much hope I have got it wrong, as is so easy to do, and Cey and gold continue their rise, as said I am holding as gold is tremendously fickle, not I believe from wild conspiracy theories as many here believe alll of us do, but investors double guessing who will buy and sell with rising rates and inflation, but I still believe a tumble is in order before new highs. The key in mining remains that over time costs do not rise faster than gold, and over the last few decades costs have risen faster than inflation while gold has more or less tracked it. So good luck Horgan, and thus us.
There's been a coup in BK so the quality or otherwise of the site is irrelevant. If you don't have political stability, you don't have a mine.
I have not seen other companies interested ,so far, in crappie Batie with its geology.
It did not fit with criteria of CEY, which makes sense.
Time to move on, I think.
The $40m paid for 4 m ozs resource (they never bothered to update the resource to my knowledge is about $10/ozs which is basically a very good grass roots discovery cost.
To be very clear they bought the Batie West Permits AND the Doropo permits. Doropo stands at about 5 m ozs, and probably will grow
So the $40m investment has given them access to the ground which contains at least 9 m ozs, which is not too bad.
I have not seen anything that would pass for a DFS on Batie, and the mina questions were
1. the high stripping ratio
2 the refractory nature which required a fine grind to acheive gold liberation (sub 10 micron). What I dont know is how many samples and what volume of earth was used to decide the entire volume of the ore was all refractory?? Or how was the Geomet model constructed? and/or How many Geo met samples were actually measured. The Batie affair smells sub -standard professionalism, at least in disclosure to their share holders.
best
the gnome
Tibbs sorry didn't answer your mention of lack of technical detail . If you go to the Centamin web site and look at Doropo there is a good deal of detail both technical and management summary albeit 2021 and 2019.
We are promised an update I believe in the next qtr which will be interesting as the more exploration/drilling they do the larger the reserve. I appreciate that grades aren't anything special but an additional 200,000 ounces a year for a minimum of 13 years providing costs kept in check isn't too shabby.
Tibbs When Batie West was bought from Ampella it came with other properties and Batie West was the one that had pretty much all of the work done by Ampella so was basically seen as the jewel in the crown. However the type of ore needed larger volumes of oxide ores to become viable. Were they sold a pup maybe but must reserve judgement without seeing what was on offer and hindsight is a precise science.
OK considerable holes drilled but I don't have access to the number of holes drilled at BW against Doropo and ABC basically was the exploration fund spread across all resources and what percentage allocated to each and others.
What I will say is that if they bring in Doropo and ABC we are going in the right direction, but maybe a question worth asking is what is the total cost over and above the 40 million Australian dollars that was paid for Ampella's resources.
Tibbs yes the money has to be paid back to the bank and it will be a cost but how does a company grow if it doesn't invest and this is one of the ways the majors grow.
Not that long ago Sukari had over $300 million in cash in the bank and the balance is currently $175 million so to be honest if Centamin are to grow they need to borrow.
Ah Mr T our posts crossed - thanks no prob. The frustration with the way this company was mismanaged is all too evident reading the posts on here. Let us hope things are really on the up from here on at least.
Hi Mr T, I fully get your aversion to debt, too much can devastate, or kill, a company - as a former investor in Vodafone I'm lucky to have avoided a massive haircut on that stock and its debt levels still give me the creeps. Cey's unbelievable balance sheet was one of the things that persuaded me to invest in the first place. But as Dasut explains so neatly it would be nuts to try to build Doropo off organic cash flow and some debt in a company of this size is desirable as long as it is kept at sensible levels. Also its going to be unavoidable if you consider Horgan's to-do list:
1. Transform operations at Sukari
2. Build Doropo
3. Fully explore Eastern Desert
4. Mergers & Acquisitions. Yep they want to buy another gold operation on top of all this lot and they'll have to borrow all of the cash to do it.
This is why I think the dividend is going to be flat for the foreseeable future, they've got so many better things to spend it on than us. This is a good thing - divs are great but significant SP growth is better in my book - let us hope we get some. Good luck everyone.
hi 3bear,
Sorry I didn't mean to worry you, glad that Dasut has reassured you because he knows his stuff!
I remain angry/frustrated because Cey wouldn't be in this position if hose in the Jersey board room carried out their responsibilities with the appropriate due diligence!
But that said it has presented another opportunity for new investors like you to get in when the company is hopefully about to achieve a sustained recovery through the leadership of a CEO who knows what they are doing!
Hi Dasut,
Thank you for the reply and giving us the benefit of your industry experience, what annoys me is that the BOD approved so much expenditure on the other West African projects which they have now walked from Batie West because they now don't fit the comapny core project criteria
Shouldn't the BOD have carried out appropriate corporate risk assesses before spending so much time and money on them?
Surely its better not to have to borrow money from the bank, it is after ll debt which has to be paid back.
It was Kees Dekker who pointed out the African cost structure and he has great experience in the area, to be fair though he could never understand what Centamin ever started in Batie West and although he thinks Doropo is a safer option, although the grades data so far aren't anything extra special.
But that said possibly Martin Horgan probably has information that is'nt in the public domain because ICentamin don't release Technical reports which give far more relevant information than their present method of financial and/or MDA reporting does,