Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
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Mr T. That was a good reference to Norman Lamont , I remember it well. I bought a 3 bed house in Greenwich for £81,500 I wonder how much it is now
I sold it in 1996 for £105k
Those were the days
I don't regard my comments or opinions on what has happened at Sukari as flippant as they are based on past events, some which is why we are where we are now.
i don't recall ever claiming to have operational mining experience and neither have I ever disputed,or doubted Sami's professional abilities, or his credibility, or even his integrity because I never met the man, although I know that some other members that have actually met him on a professional basis hold him in high regard.
That said despite Sami's geological abilities and foresight he couldn't have built Sukari or achieved what he did without the trust and investment of share holders who are in fact part owners of the mine.
You make claims of having superior knowledge on mining matters which may or may not be the case, and you have expressed doubts about Martin Horgan's present operational strategy and the methods for getting Sukari back on track, although you offer little, in fact no evidence to support your claims, other than we must hope that one of these wonderful unnamed miners you have been fortunate enough to meet in the past will suddenly reappear and be able to tell Martin Horgan an his team where they are going wrong?
Is this an alternative plan that is likely to excite the market or inspire shareholder confidence, possibly these wonderful miners have long beards ,wear long flowing white robes and carry a long staff, (Oh no sorry that's Gandalf from Lord Of The Rings, although possibly he could sort out Sukari though with that magic staff?)
I very much doubt that you have ever met Andrew Maguire, neither Martin Horgan and so I fail to see how you can make such assumptions about them that may well be unjustifiable as you know so little about them.
Anyone can be whomever they want to claim to be on internet forms like this and sometimes a poster can leave and rejoin under a different identity,although often despite their name change their posting style and content betrays them.
I can't claim to be able to smell out gold, although I do suspect the presence of Baloney ?
I'm sure you understand what I mean?
Quite so Candid,
I recall it when when our mortgage rate went up on each news announcement of that morning!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/september/16/newsid_2519000/2519013.stm
Admittedly house prises were much lower then and so was the rateable value and insurance costs, although wages were also less and most mortgages were only granted based on the man's salary as it was assumed that although the wife might be eaning more she would be giving up work to have babies!
But as we predicted at the time when interest rates fell well into single figures the greedy estate agents and developers took advantage and banged up the prices of overpriced chucked up little boxes (called starter homes) that many youngster struggle to buy even at present interest rate without the help of their parents.
The ordinary folk always get screwed by their governments and in favour of those from the right public schools that run the system.
The markets are just the same and most likely there will be a crash before too long and who will lose the most and then pay the bill, the ordinary folk!
Mrtibbles I suggest anyone who has hands on operational experience! If you had even an inkling of the information both in terms of volume & detail required to formulate a proper mine plan you would be less flippant! I have had the privilege in my life to meet some wonderful miners, the really good ones are tantamount to prescient, they can just look at a patch of ground & tell you where the resources are, where blanks are, where subsidence holes are, etc. unfortunately they are few & far between but that is what we need, if we can find one we will hit heights that none of us even hope for.
I was fortunate enough to meet Sami, if you had the same experience I guarantee you that your hero worship of the likes of Horgan & Maguire would fly out the window, that man knew how to kick rocks :)
I think Powell should have the confidence to issue a clear statement of policy.,at present he does not inspire confidence in anything other shear lack of decisiveness.
Is Powell in charge of the US economy or not, if so he should give clear direction, at present Powell is indecisive and lets events lead him rather than he dictating them, his dithering causes volatility.
All this procrastination is just bullsh*t, lets have a clear decision that interest rates will rise on day whatever, or they will fall, or they will remain where they are until a defined date for review, lets have a firm commitment to a decisive policy whichever way, no more might be ,might not, perhaps, or when if what, lets see.
The pandemics here and likely to be hare for the foreseeable future, stop using it as an excuse for failed home and international policy and instead announce clear and decisive policies to deal with it. not just in America, but by helping all the other poorer counties irrelevant of of their political or religious beliefs.
Powell has really told us nothing other than there may be a decision one way or the other anytime soon, possibly and the markets has chosen to do its usual knee jerk one way or the the other or whichever way as long as it shuffles the indices up or down.
I wonder if this bloke Powell chair of the FED or chair of the mad hatters tea party?
If interest rates rise significantly ( I can remember when they hit 15 % 30 years ago ..).then it wouldn't be inconceivable for the USA and others ( including UK ) to default on their debts .
They all need super high inflation to reduce their real value of debt , so the Fed better be careful about what it wishes for .
It’s not confusing Mr T, it’s adapting… again I ask you each time… what would you have done? Last time he said nothing and you complained, this time he said something and you complained… he can only work within certain boundaries, you can see the impact his statements have- I’m not not defending him, it’s just my expectations of what he will or won’t say are what I consider as realistic
It’s matters not to me Tornadotony- it’s the game we’re in, and creates volatility that makes us money.
This is why I trade PMs like this around key data points- primarily US as drives other markets and metals like it or not. Holding gold miners like this has not proved productive in recent times, relative to other investments , I see you do same by trading - good luck and tomorrow could be good if a miss on NFP or the reverse.
I tend to wait for data points/markers etc where I see opportunities.
Without the FED something else would replace it to create volatility.
History has shown us that every system and leader is replaced with another that some like the leader and system at some point, and some don’t, and some always moan about how the systems and leaders are always against them and manipulated/fixed/corrupt - I simply play within whatever is there in place.
Hi Tornadotony,
An excellent summing and appraisal of the confusing Powell policy for supposedly managing the worlds biggest economy.
our instead of are in line 3
has instead of as in line 5 para 2.
Steve
Lost track of J Powell and his BS. One minute the FED is independent and the next its a lap dog to the politicians with no independence at all. One minute it is a service to the public and then we discover its a self serving cabal. The stock market feigns FED superiority when it suits and says we will do it are way regardless the next when they feel the FED is not listening to wall street over its main street rival.
It comes down to one point of view that we each hold and it may be different amongst us and that is whether you want to hold gold or a proxy such as gold miner equity stock, do you want to hold dollar bills or finally would you hold property, bitcoin or anything of value that is not FIAT and nor is it ultimately controlled by the FED and its masters. Of course many follow the piper drumming up the SP500 above mount Everest levels. Its an absolute joke if the FED thinks it as any kind of handle on inflation. Its like the Wizard of Oz and the phoney operator behind the curtain pulling different levers and no they can't get you back home just like they have a fat chance of stuffing inflation back into the bottle. All the best Tony
Interesting crypto, backed by physical gold.
https://goldpesa.com/
It wont be the last
Slightly out of date but remains true for now as from earlier today… Omicron has improved throughout the day as I’ve posted earlier…
“Gold prices eased on Thursday as investors bet the U.S. Federal Reserve would taper its bond purchases faster to tackle surging inflation despite economic recovery concerns amid the new Omicron coronavirus variant.
Spot gold fell 0.3% to $1,777.87 per ounce by 0639 GMT. U.S. gold futures dropped 0.3% to $1,778.10.
In congressional testimony on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank needs to be ready to respond to the possibility that inflation may not recede in the second half of 2022.
Powell also said the Fed would consider a faster tapering of its bond purchases at its upcoming two-day meeting due to start on Dec. 14.
Gold is often considered an inflation hedge, though reduced stimulus and interest rate hikes push government bond yields up, translating into a higher opportunity cost for holding bullion, which pays no interest.
“The more hawkish shift in rhetoric from Powell could overshadow for gold any bullish impulse from the Omicron virus until at least Friday’s non-farm payrolls report” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.
The U.S. non-farm payrolls report could influence the Fed’s rate stance. The ADP National employment report showed on Wednesday private payrolls increased by 534,000 jobs in November.
Spot gold still targets $1,758 per ounce, as it has deeply pierced below a support at $1,780 and broken a rising trendline, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.
Am waiting to decide at 13:30 on tomorrow NFP- excessive could bash gold down further in the short term. Current hawkish FED from Tuesday dialogue maintains pressure on the yellow stuff
Somebody on here ( I can't remember who ) suggested that investor demand for gold was dependent on market expectations of future ' real ' interest rates which is a view I subscribe to. When inflation is higher than interest rates , then cash starts losing its value and that creates a demand for gold ..
If the talk of increasing interest rates at the same time as reducing monetary easing is correct , then that will be a deflationary act which won't help the price of gold
I bought at 92.78 and around 93.5p but it was usual top ups. God knows what they are doing but I am hoping today is the seasonal bottom.
Indeed hindsight is such a great thing, if only we had known that pit wall was going to crack!
So did you super load up at 93p as you mentioned in an earlier thread or did your anxieties get the better of you?
HI Tornadotony,
Incredible the US makes a complete mess of it's unjustifiable and unnecessary military campaign and occupation of Afghanistan before bailing out abandoning its trusting allies and the Afghan people but leaving Europe and the UK to deal with the displaced people and the other consequences, but that's OK as long as the US infrastructure spending is still the cards !
Special relationship my ar*se, it's one that we would have been better off without!
cont-
New data from the Caixin survey of Chinese manufacturers yesterday said that the sector shrank in November, while factory activity-growth in the 19-nation Eurozone and the UK also missed forecasts to edge back further from the summer's record rate of expansion on the Markit PMI index.
With London's FTSE All Share trading 2.3% lower from this time last month, the UK gold price in Pounds per ounce today set new 1-month lows with a dip below £1330.
Euro gold bullion bar prices held near 4-week lows beneath €1565 as the EuroStoxx 600 index lost 1.6% for the day, near its weakest since mid-October.
"The best case for gold is high but decelerating inflation," reckons analysts at Canadian brokerage T.D.Securities, because "[it] may leave the US central bank comfortable keeping the economy running hot for longer."
Thursday, 12/02/2021 14:23
GOLD BARS in London's wholesale bullion market traded at their cheapest in a month on Thursday, dipping below $1770 per ounce as global stock markets and commodity prices fell yet again following US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's "pivot" towards tapering new QE faster and raising interest rates sooner in the face of the worst inflation in 3 decades.
Government debt prices rose, in contrast, edging longer-term borrowing costs lower as more countries imposing travel restrictions and quarantines, with new cases of Omicron confirmed worldwide and South Africa saying it has become the dominant variant of Covid-19 locally with infections doubling in 24 hours.
Since setting a 6th consecutive new record high on 8th November, the MSCI World Index has now fallen in 10 of the following 17 sessions, losing 5% from that peak.
Crude oil meantime fell Thursday near $65 per barrel of US benchmark WTI, the cheapest since late-August and nearly $20 below late-October's 7-year high.
Silver prices extended the drop in gold bars to test their cheapest Dollar level since end-September's 14-month lows, dipping overnight through $22.20 per ounce as platinum tried but failed to recover last weekend's level, dropping back almost 2% inside 1 hour Thursday lunchtime in London.
"Jay Powell effectively jettisoned the Fed's previous stance," says the Financial Times about this week's testimony to Congress from the US central bank's chairman.
"[This] sent a clear message to markets: combating inflation...is now the top priority [meaning] a faster reduction of the central bank's massive bond-buying programme [plus] leeway to raise interest rates more quickly than expected."
Ahead of Friday's key US jobs data for November, new claims for jobless benefits rose less-than-expected last week on new figures today, with continuing claims falling harder than forecast.
But inflation forecasts in the bond market have now fallen to the lowest in 8 weeks, predicting 2.44% per year between now and 2031 – fully one-third of a percentage point below mid-November's series record high and almost 4 percentage points below October's actual annual pace of CPI inflation.
Five-year breakevens have also seen their steepest plunge since the Covid Crash hit global financial markets in March 2020, dropping almost 0.5 percentage points inside 2 weeks.
The more respected 5-over-5 measure of bond-market forecasts now sees US inflation averaging 2.18% between 2026 and 2031, near the lowest reading in a month and back below its average across the decade ending as the Covid pandemic began in New Year 2020.
Prices paid by US manufacturers edged back in November on the ISM's index of input costs, but held at what would be a decade-record if not for 2021's earlier surge.
Cont
Another issue to bear in mind is a conflict anywhere on the globe that requires USA intervention for any prolonged length of time Indeed the withdrawal from Afghanistan was essential in order for USA to have any hope of expending on its infrastructure. So any efforts around Taiwan, Ukraine that would enlist USA expenditure are probably not on the cards. In fact USA might be able to handle a Grenada like event with a quick conclusion ran more like a military exercise. The cost of any conflict would mean the default rate would be under 2% or serious cuts in other USA expenditure.
In theory, USA debt at $29 trillion dollars has an interest charge of $418B per annum. This equates to 58% of the entire Defence budget that maintains USA status. For a 1% interest hike $290B of added interest goes on the bill. At 3% interest charges are amongst the highest cost in the entire USA budget surpassing Social security and so forth at $1.28 trillion per year. At 5% the USA would probably be unable to service its debt and the value of the dollar defaults.
As inflation increases and if wages do not keep up to pay higher taxes the debt accelerates further as the revenue shrinks as public sector costs rise. So the model projections on interest rate hikes would need to be lower and a default event in these circumstances is probably at 3.5% interest. The dollar today is appreciating against gold when we have an economic risk event such as omicron generating a new wave of Covid. This could drive up future debt ratios even higher as more private sector income generating services take another hit. Consequently today's drop in gold price is utterly perverse. Additionally what is the time scale before inflation falls below 3.5% as only at that point gold has a positive interest rate working against it. I personally doubt if interest rates will fall to that level in 2022. In fact so many future costs are baked into the pie already.
In theory , I think the true cost of Gold is the AISC but without margin...this is 'cost' we are referring to rather than "price " which would include a profit margin and would therefore be higher.
In reality a few other things would come into effect
1. Different producers have different AISC so the true cost of gold varies from one company to another. As an example the cash cost per ounce of gold produced for Centamin is approx $ 850 ..it's AISC is around $1,200.
By comparison , for Endeavour mining , their AISC is only $850, which barely covers the cash cost of production for Centamin
2. Gold mines would carry on in the short term even if the gold price fell below these amounts , but eventually the pits would be " mothballed " when the gold price fell below the cash cost of production ..this makes sense because the more gold they produced , the greater their losses would be ..
3. Gold production would still continue if the price fell below AISC but above the cash cost , because by doing so the company would be recovering at least some of their fixed costs. .obviously that couldn't continue indefinitely
4. In view of the different AISC of the different mining companies , Centamin would mothball its production before Endeavour ..thus reducing global supply when it did so ...this process would continue, company by company , until supply had diminished to the level to satisfy the corresponding level of demand.
50 % of gold is consumed in jewellery and around 10% by industry , mainly tech companies and a further 10 % approx by central banks , so a new equilibrium gold price would be reached to rebalance the supply/demand equation , to satisfy this underpinning demand .
Regarding the investor demand for gold , the picture is less clear , would investor demand increase with falling gold prices and thus increase the price of gold or would the reverse happen ..who knows ..
Back on omicron or moronic as I call it…
More positive news from GSK to add to the other positive news… “it’s covid-19 antibody treatment looks to be effective against the new omicron variant. Lab tests of the mutations found in the variant showed the drug is still active against the virus”