Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Hi Kando,
Interesting post with some pertinent points, like your optimism! , we certainly need plenty of that at the present and confidence in the new management strategy!
I like that word ' disgruntled ' Don't get too complacent though .
The last time it was 80p was nearly 3 years ago , when AISC was half of what it will be in 2022, and when gold prices were on the rise. Also there was more positive sentiment towards a more productive pipeline of future developments.
Since then Sukari has now had 3 years worth of depletion and by their estimation only 10-12 years remain ..news regarding West African assets look less promising than they were , and the mountain of cash is now being likewise depleted to fund capex
Not quite the same circumstances ..of course you could still be right ..let's hope you are
Yes Kando. I pretty much concur with your observations
Volatility everywhere atm.
Retail shareholders , such as ourselves registering our disapproval , as you and gnome suggest is another angle to adopt, to strengthen investor revolt .. the third angle of attack would come from the trustees of the individual company pension funds who are investing their beneficiaries monies with those passive institutional investors ...there is always a way to succeed .
The problem here of course , is that none of these actions are in play.
Not quite sure what we're all so disgruntled about. The share price will recover. The update was a positive one. CEY has been dragged down with metals and other miners on the strengthening dollar and the piling back into certain riskier assets, but this will be temporary. Sure, the fair market value for CEY is closer to 105 than 85, but that's not entirely relevant. It's down on sector weakness. There's plenty to be encouraged by in the form of improving yields, maintained dividends and the prospect of multiple Gold tailwinds. This is still hovering around its support levels. It has spiked down to as low as 80 before, but everytime it has tested the 80p range in the last 5 years, it's soared back up by 40 to 100% within 100 days.
Mr T...it is often predator private equity firms who take up positions on the cheap , looking to benefit from quick turnarounds that they think are achievable in the short term ...there only has to be the ' perception of changes in a company's fortune ' rather than the subsequent realisation of it, to bring about a rapid turnaround of share price . Of course , once they get ' inside the organisation ' and uncover what is really going on , they may conceivably increase their holding and become even more demanding in the process .
I have spoken previously about what I consider to be a sensible strategy to turn the situation around for shareholders
Create a devolved body to run the West African assets ..given free and autonomous power to operate, unencumbered by day to day interference from head office . They will be given adequate funding (possibly financed by debt ) but with progressive targets designed to create value from the asset.
In the mean time , dividends should be reduced to prevailing US interest rates plus 1 or 2 % equity premium . No room for debt AND excessive dividends given the current circumstances
Hi Candid,
Good idea, any idea on which institution or fund to approach?
Also think it was at the 2018 AGM there was a vote against the directors proposed remuneration?
I was made aware a couple of years or so back when Centamin seemed not be acknowledging or answering questions that out of frustration a group of retail investors took to contacting the analysts (RBC Capital etc ) and some of the media market analysts via email highlighting their concerns,, this certainly seemed to have stirred up some discomfort with Centamins official PR of firm of representatives who then contacted some of those share holders concerned and asked them to refrain as the analysts were complaining to them about retail investors not following the correct contact protocols and procedures and that all enquiries should be put through the Centamin appointed PR firm.
I am sure Cowichan and some others will remember?
Same here halfpenny.
Its a waiting game. In the UK with so much money in the banks not earning anything, a lot of people will start buying gold as an inflation hedge. The issue about inflation goes well beyond what happens in 2022. Its like central bankers having amnesia in that COP26 never happened and no effort will be made towards climate protection activity. In addition the central banks are actively subsidising carbon producing industries and actively penalising the climate protection equity companies with 12-16% interest rates. This has gone on all year and on top of this central banks and governments are quite happy for cryptocurrencies to carry out with their excessive energy use that dwarfs the entire precious metals sector which is trying to use more renewable energy sources. The climate change agenda is inflationary and what central bankers and politicians can not get into their heads is that there is a huge cost to repair all the damage from climate extreme events and this is not constructive GDP and its not productive either and it has a greater inflationary impact down the line. Whatever happens, inflation is not go to stay at 2% unless the intention is to stay on the high carbon dioxide producing path we are on. Tony
A good way to gauge shareholders disapproval of directors performance is to look at the level of votes cast against the directors remuneration report and the re-election of directors. These can be found in the results of the AGM Rns
The votes registered against the Directors remuneration package was less than 0.1%. Similarly the reappointment of each of the directors went through on the nod The only director to attract an over 1 % opposition to his reappointment was James Rutherford I think, who had 1.6 % votes registered against him . It will be interesting to see how these votes change at the next annual report , until then, expect no change in direction .
Candidness of shareholders is required here , rather than blind faith , shareholder wealth is being destroyed and at a rapid rate ..markets were swift to react to the nothingness of the 8th December update of life of mine report , and momentum is only growing .
What we could do with is an activist investor , holding more than 5 % of shares , who can force his or her way onto the board, perhaps as a non exec director to shake things up . What we have is passive institutional funds probably managed by wet behind the ears ex public schoolboys, eager to be taken on a directors organised tour around the pyramids and the valley of the Kings and Queens or is that being unfair?
Pog might get a bid on Omicron, Ukraine, Taiwan and Evergrande fallout but then there's the Fed lies later this week.. Happy to hold here and top up on this weakness myself.
Hi Mr Gnome,
I wonder if there be bonus share awards to the directors this year?
There is supposed to be a certain criteria that has to be complied with to justify such rewards?
Wonder what Marmots view is on things after 08th Dec update?
Equities in Europe traded higher in the premarket on Monday after the United Kingdom issued additional fishing licenses for fishing vessels from the European Union, temporarily solving the issue between the two sides. Later during the weekend, Britain stated it will offer booster doses of vaccines against COVID-19 to every adult citizen by the end of the year in an effort to prevent the spread of the Omicron strain of the virus.
The DAX rose by 0.50% at 7:47 am CET. At the same time, the FTSE 100 gained 0.40%, while CAC 40 expanded by 0.49%.
The euro lost 0.27% to the dollar at 7:57 am CET, selling for $1.12871. A minute later, the pound sterling declined by 0.29% against the greenback to go for $1.32306.
Baha Breaking the News (BBN) / JR
Happy Monday y’al
Mr B , I suggest you put your big boy underpants on and deal with views contrarian to your own. Diverse opinions add value to chat forums such as this .
If you read my post you will see that it was in support of an earlier posting by Steve J regarding an exit point. . I highlighted an opportunity which might be coming up to do this
Interesting that you didn't accuse SteveJ of the same .
No reply necessary.
The best way to show displeasure, is simply to band together and vote out the directors who are sitting on their hands, as has been done recently by a very minority group of investors at Exxon
"May 26 (Reuters) - A tiny hedge fund dealt a major blow to Exxon Mobil Corp on Wednesday, unseating at least two board members in a bid to force the company’s leadership to reckon with the risk of failing to adjust its business strategy to match global efforts to combat climate change.
The success by hedge fund Engine No. 1 in its showdown with Exxon shocked an energy industry struggling to address growing investor concerns about global warming. It happened on the same day activists scored a big win against another oil major, Royal Dutch Shell - a Dutch court ordered the company to drastically deepen pledged cuts to greenhouse gas emissions"
Even the dinosaurs did not see their demise coming, until it was too late
This week’s main event is the final Federal Open Market Committee meeting of the year on Dec 14-15. Some market participants expect the rate of asset purchase tapering to double; others think it will stand pat with the current pace. The arguments on either side are balanced. Persistently high inflation and improved recent labor market data favor a faster tightening. Lack of clarity about the impact of the omicron variant of the coronavirus is a reason for caution. Whatever the pace, though, the Federal Reserve is now set on a tightening course, and economic fundamentals will keep it there. As the labor market tightens, demand pull will keep pushing up inflation until the middle of 2022. At that point, the productivity boost from the capital spending boom of the past two years could become a moderating force. But US inflation will likely hover above the Fed’s 2% inflation target for most of next year.
best
the gnome.
Many thanks to the various contributors who responded to my current predicament!
Your overview of recent broker notes/targets was very useful to get an overall feel Halfpenny with NewSids advice kept in mind.
Your additional comments were also appreciated mrtibbles not least the line to the effect that Sukari was being run by Josef, Youssef and Pardey 'like any other pyramid scheme'. In Egypt. Nice :)
And thanks for the thoughtful post Tornadotony (thoughts with all those affected in Kentucky btw) and briefly reply to your points that:
1. Never been inside a betting shop but would take a calculated risk
2. No longer any assets to pay off and only using 'money allocated that I can afford to lose'. For CEY will probably be cashing in on some of my 35% rise in my Blackrock Energy ETF.
3. Primarily an invester. I manage my own portfolio (past 35 years or so) using the Interactive Investor platform.
4/5. Have a core portfolio but prepared to trade around that. Sleep not an issue thanks.
6. My request for 'education' was actually only with regard to the apparent decreasing annual dividends which I am now understanding is arising out of rising AISC amounts required in a bid to turn things around to a more dependable model by the current management.
Have a substantial (for me) silver ETF holding so as this is a geared play on gold very interested in what happens in this market.
Thanks too for the Stockopedia tip (can't just find who that came from) which is where, olderandwiser, it appears the 2021 5.3% divi estimate came from! So we've got roughly divis of +13% for Centamin's 2020 year, 7.2ish for 21 and 5.3 for 22 - so bearing that theme in mind in my ever more fraught decision to purchase!
Might simply rest on the case that there's enough going for it to justify a bounce plus the possibility of an updraft of an increasing gold price in the new year.
Will see what happens tomorrow.
Hence the importance of a progress report..
The west wall is what crashed the sp.
Candid if that is how you feel the solution ,as you say ,is exit
Getting tired of hearing moaning groans, as possibly more are.
Good luck . Stay well.
Steve J. I think that's an excellent post regarding exiting Centamin and doing so around a positive RNS.
I think that the " roadmap to producing 500,000 ounces per year ", combined with yet another " year of transformation " amounts to nothing more than cheap spin. I was underwhelmed by it , I am sure many of you, if you are honest about it might have felt the same way
The Q4 update due next month will report a one off 50% increase in gold production compared to Q4 of 2020, because Q4 of last year was when production was curtailed
Any resulting uptick in SP might present a good opportunity to exit
The comms were poor.
The comms were poor.
Obviously if that were the case it should have been highlighted in the 8th? After all the west wall is an integral part of the Sukuri mine is it not?
Centamin are not flawless and for that reason I indorse Cowichan’s use of twitter to help keep Cey awake.
From Capital Ltd it is known that they’re ahead of schedule with the waste removal.
Does that mean that Centamin are ahead on the mine repair work, I don’t know.
They also didn’t mention that they have had a new crusher installed, yet here is a great report from the company that supplied it.
https://im-mining.com/2021/12/01/centamins-sukari-gold-mine-improves-efficiency-quick-flsmidth-gyratory-crusher-upgrade/
This too shall pass, I just hope we end this coming week at no less than at least the current share price.