Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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What has been the most surprising financial event of 2021? The 20% gain in equity prices, the 40% jump in oil prices and even the fivefold leap in US inflation may all have been bigger than expected, but they were at least directionally understandable consequences of the fastest growth in the world economy for 40 years. That explosive growth, in turn, was a predictable response to last year’s unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimuli, magnified by the end of Covid lockdowns. A more surprising event than the performance of equities or energy, or even inflation, was also arguably more important, not only for financial markets but for global economic prospects.
The 10-year US treasury yield, which was almost universally expected to rise back into the 2-3% range that it had inhabited before Covid, is ending 2021 well below 1.5%. And the 30-year bond yield, which had never in history plumbed levels below 2% prior to Covid, is trading today at 1.8%. That is exactly where it was back in January, when US inflation was running at 1.4% instead of 6.8% and when much of the world economy was still in lockdown.
This time is different. We have walked past the tipping point.
Is the threat of Modern Monetary Theory on us now? And if so where does gold sit, and what invesment thesis holds for it?
Recall: DEC 9 2019
>Goldman Sachs is forecasting gold to rise to $1,600 an once, an 8.5% gain from current levels.
>A main part of the bull case is the increasing talk of Modern Monetary Theory, which says deficits don’t matter in low-inflation environments.
And what opinion does G-S have now?
https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/gs-research/reflation-risk/report.pdf
I am off to buy more gold, and gold miners ...those with no debt (still worried about the interest rate rise threat, which is now greater than geographic threats?), no royalties or streamers, solid disciplined competent management (scarce, I know) solid free cash flow, good environmental credentials as well as a sound social license, real organic growth optionality...and abilitiy to execute.
No waht I mean?
best
the gnome
I get confused. Wasnt there a Joseph as well as a Josef? Didnt "the man on the train" say one was an honourable man before the s--t started to hit the fan?
its not about trading, it's about trust1
its being able to trust in the integrity and professionless competence of those running Sukari at the time, Josef ,Youssef and Pardey, they betrayed the trust of share holders by knowingly condoning poor mining practice with the intention of deceiving the market and share holders into believing that the sustainable forward guidance was much higher than Sukari was ever designed or capable of delivering.
With this insider knowledge they then took the opportunity to dispose of their shares at an advantageous price by offering excuses of taking a back seat and property developments before the inevitable cracks in the pyramid scheme became apparent!
i can accept that there are unforeseen and genuinely unknown occurrences in mining, but I will not accept deception lying and certainly will not get over it, nor move on!
Hi Bob&Liz,
Absolutely agree, Cowichan for non exec director , he certainly deserves it!
Although some may not realise it Cowichan's dedication to exposing the facts and persistence in asking unanswered questions has certainly hit home!
Compliments of the season to you and your family and everyone else of this forum!
On reflexion, gold is ,in my opinion, true financial wealth. True wealth is probably something completely different.
The dividend keeps some of us hanging on and , in my opinion, gold is true wealth. Assuming that Centamin can continue to find enough gold !
Olderand wiser
The problem with doing nothing and moving on in your reply to Tibbles is exactly what will happen time and again . I agree Regulators seem to have the Companies and not shareholders (at least the PI'S ) interest foremost. But there is an old saying "if you dont study history you are destined to repeat it. I would add "and react to it" you are destined to repeat it.
Some non -execs are excellent but I haven't looked into the CV of Centamin non execs as yet Did any have the in depth technical technical knowledge of the mining industry and specifically open pit mining. I would think not. Thought of the day, put Cowichan forward as a Centamin noni - exec. Get my shareholder vote.
Merry compliments of the season to all here whatever the amazing and diverse but mannerly views you have.
BobLiz
Hong Kong ex vivo research, Ie growing virus on lung cultures
It is difficult at the moment , Omicron variant more infectious ( particularly in bronchial cells X 70 ) but less infectious in Alveolar cells ( X 10 less ) . According to Hong Kong recent research. Ambulance and Hospital struggling. I think a very difficult December, Jan and February. But we maybe much better by March. but I though this last year !
The bonkers overreaction to covid new variant continues- utter madness- we have vaccine wtf are we doing- the world’s gone nuts!
European stock exchanges traded deep in the negative territory in premarket trade on Monday after governments across the continent took, announced or reportedly discussed steps to address another resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic. Over the weekend, the United Kingdom revealed that Foreign Secretary Liz Truss will replace David Frost as London's chief negotiator in talks with the European Union.
The DAX dropped by 1.92%, London's FTSE 100 was down 1.54%, while the CAC 40 fell by 2% at 7:32 am CET.
The euro was up 0.14% compared to the dollar at 7:36 am CET, trading for 1.12526. The British pound was 0.13% lower against the greenback, changing hands for 1.32180 at the same time.
Baha Breaking the News (BBN) / MS
Happy Monday y’al
My apologies Mr Bond you are quite correct I was looking at early days, I still say good luck to him - in my view Centamin is still worth & will eventually return to those levels.
Sami devoted a huge portion of his life establishing Centamin raising the capital, fighting various battles with the Egyptian government, setting up the mine, etc., he and in turn his family are fully entitled to the profits they made.
As for it being at the expense of shareholders, for me Centamin has been the second most profitable share investment I have ever made, I would suggest that you failed to take profits when the price was very high & are now crying over spilt milk & looking for someone to blame - this is a basic error in investing & you should chastise yourself not others!
Anyroad, if you are such a long term shareholder that you keep banging on about you are still at several times multiple on this share & have nothing to whine about.
Enjoy the lack of stamp duty, buy on lows, sell in highs, and trade this share. That's my approach and only pile in when the price has plummeted. At least there's gold in them there hills.
mrtibbles,
My advice to you, sir, is, "get over it and move on" with your obvious angst here. AIM and LSE regulators have shown scant interest over the years in conducting forensic examinations of management "best practice" or even the wrong side of the regulations. You need to figure out if your investment capital is going to grow in real terms from the here and now, not some historical irksome starting point when trouble a'mill was uncovered. Look forwards, not backwards.
Hi Bob& Liz,
Thank you for the advice, given the gravity of the circumstances the upper case seems most appropriate!
I have noted your advice an wonder now what is the best course of action for share holders?
Possibly in the first instance they should write to the CEO & or Chairman and ask for an explanation why the non executive directors have failed to discharge their duties and responsibilities as they should?
Also should the appropriate regulator be copied initially ?
Or should the regulator be asked to investigate in the first instance?
Also and this is no defense, the BOD in Jersey claim to have been unaware until the recent pit wall crack that they were unaware that the open pit waste wasn't being cleared as it should have been over several years .
From their statement it seems the were dependent on whatever Pardey & co wanted to tell them, hardly ideal for share holders, but excellent for those running the pyramid ramp up schemes at Sukari
So that said it's hardly likely that the executive directors would have raised any initial concerns, however now the fact's/failings at Sukari and their impact on share price and company profits are known and yet they appear to have done nothing, it certainly questions their worth and suitability for post.!
Possibly share holders should ask some of these questions during the next quarterly Webinar market update?
I won't go into detail on an open forum, but I know the new management just want to get on with the job in hand are keen not get involved in the blame game, that accepted it is annoying /frustrating to say the least that that the previous management have done very nicely indeed by misleading the share holders and it seems they will get away with it.
Spoonington,
You really need to do some research into what has been going on with Sukari over the past decade and it's pretty clear the El Raghy family have done exceptionally at the expense of the share holders.
You may care to check up how many mining companies appoint former police captains as general mangers of their gold mines.
Far too much family nepotism at Centamin!
Mr Bond is quite correct in his statement.
Spoonington take another look he sold many millions in the 170 s.
Josef sold his shares at around the 1.35 mark, a long way from the top.
The sale maybe does not look the best but maybe he wanted a change in life and wanted to cash out, completely understandable & his prerogative.
The repeated insinuations that he entered into high grade ramping & then sold out at the top is contrary to the facts & belongs on a conspiracy theory site.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/don-lawson-98619370_burkinafaso-gold-mining-activity-6878085630694449152-s3zp
A graph is on the link.
Summary: Doropo is larger than most BUT with zero valuation. Why some mining analysts downplay the significance of Centamin's West Africa growth project(s) is suspect IMO
And there is the next episode .
Where thid come from?
Brilliant ,
Apparently the Konkera (Batie West) mining permit is a twenty (20) year permit - and was signed March 5 2015 #mining #BurkinaFaso #gold Centamin PLC
https://www.itie-bf.gov.bf/IMG/pdf/15-227_octroi_konkera_sa.pdf
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/don-lawson-98619370_15-227octroikonkerasapdf-activity-6878040343296798720-VtAR
After 10 years of this company ,it's surprising there are so many sane long termers left.
Or are there, possibly more than likely masochists .
And likely many passed on.
Bless em.
Still it'slike a Soap Opera ,compulsive.
What next ?
Hi Tibbs
What you say has a lot of merit. However can I add that the Executive Directors have the responsibility to profitably develop the Company but , and this the killer for me!!! The NON EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS ARE APPOINTED TO SAFEGUARD THE SHAREHOLDERS AND QUERY THE BOARD OF EXECS IF THEY FEEL THIS HASS NOT HAPPENIED!!! Their remuneration for minimal effort and work is well documented and HAVE FAILED IN THEIR PRIMARY OBLIGATION. The role of the Non Execs need to be examined in this context in my opinion although they will and or have swanned off to some other lucrative minimal effort company/companies. Apologies for the capitals but does mitigate somewhat my disdain for these leeches on the bosom of many Companies.
Bob
Hi Cowichan,
As a share holder you are entitled to call the management to account, even more so when your concerns are ignored, as has happened all too often in past!
That said, I think many of us long term share holders have also been blind cheerleaders because we tend assume that the directors of the company possess integrity, respect the trust the company shareholders place in them and so act in their share holders best interests!
Had the previous management behaved as it should have done in regard to your questions then you would have no need to have to resort to social media!
Thank you for all you do!