Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Cowichan it would seem the odds are stacked in our favour.
Thanks Razors - we are due for some positive news regarding drill data!
Apparently Centamin just hired a South Africa firm* to help in that and related mineral resource departments .
* https://www.dekadynamics.com.au/technical-systems-selection-implementation-and-sustainability/
----------------------------->>>>
posted 3 hours ago
I would like to thank Fredrick Chitonga for this amazing training about Modern Mine Sampling and QAQC of Mine Sampling Data at Sukari Gold Mines.
We are always searching for improvements.
#geologists #mineralresources #sampling #SGM
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mohamed-ehab-fahmy_geologists-mineralresources-sampling-activity-6968210937174462464-VmKf
Thanks Razors good find ,the future.
We’re in grave danger of positive news at any moment.
Surely Geodrill couldn’t drill $54m worth of holes and not come up with something.
*Article dated 1st Feb 2022
https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/22/02/n25331866/geodrill-wins-usd-54m-five-year-underground-drilling-contract-in-egypt
Well done and good luck to all the Greek people for the future!
Greece on Saturday concluded 12 years of European Union fiscal surveillance that was imposed in return for bailouts after a crushing debt crisis.
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220820-eu-fiscal-oversight-of-greece-ends-after-12-years
Thanks Cowichan, most amusing but unfortunately all too accurate.
I am a big believer in a European free trade agreement but a single currency was stupid & always doomed to failure.
When the EU was formed the pollies were told that a single currency would not work but the temptation of being to exert economic control over entire nations (think of what they did to Greece) proved to tempting & the advice was ignored.
Ultimately you reap what you so & Europe looks ready for harvest. I take no great pleasure from this as I have a number of friends in various parts of Europe but the silver lining is the demise of the Euro would likely bode well for gold & thus us :)
JEPh,
So what news do you have on Centamin & gold?
r1234,
We are all hoping that the turnaround is finally starting to deliver more than just the promises of the past!
Russian state TV has claimed military targets on UK soil should be attacked if British soldiers are deployed in Ukraine.
Igor Korotchenko, a pro-Kremlin military journalist, said Russia doesn't "desire" war with the UK, but would react harshly if any soldiers were sent to the frontline.
Speaking on the state-owned Russia 1, Korotchenko said Russia "reserved the right to resort to any possible action" if British soldiers engaged with the Russian armed forces in Ukraine.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/russian-state-tv-british-army-attacked-brit-soldiers-fight-ukraine-163503865.html
The consequences of this war for our food and energy security are already clear, and compare with our situation when supplies were disrupted in the second world war. In 1940, the solution was found in a rationing scheme that avoided mass starvation and prioritised petrol supplies for essential services. Essential industries were supported and munitions production increased. A coalition government was formed with a war cabinet of the best people from different parties.
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/britain-must-wake-war-reaches-164703627.html
Hi Cowichan,
Interesting although unfortunately the UK can only watch from the outside now and the UK has lost all influence in Europe and we have lost so many of the freedoms advantages we once enjoyed being part of an free and open Europe.
To be fair Pitchfork Papers was in favour of remaining in the EU
Leavers have LOTS of money: seems like a lot of very wealthy people are anxious to get out of the EU.
I wonder why? Is it because many of the constraints on how badly you're allowed to treat workers have been put in place by the EU? Is it because the EU has insisted on environmental legislation which hampers the freedom-to-pollute of corporations and governments? Is it because the EU has established an international criminal court where all those people to whom we sell weapons might be called to account? Is it because the EU has tried to come up with some sort of humane response to immigration other than barbed wire and Trumpian walls?
https://pitchfork.com/news/66210-brian-eno-encourages-uk-citizens-to-vote-against-brexit/
Yuen Low
+44 (0) 20 3100 2091
yuen.low@liberum.com
For those seeking a long-short idea for the new year, we
would like to suggest going long on Centamin and short on
Endeavour Mining. This morning, we published a revamped
model for Centamin, on the basis of which we have
upgraded our rating to BUY and set a new Target Price of
106p, implying 22% upside (previously: SELL, 86p). In
contrast, our existing Endeavour Mining target price of
1316p has 15% downside. We therefore downgrade our
Endeavour recommendation to SELL (from HOLD).
The case for buying Centamin
We have revamped our Centamin model following the Sukari Life-of-Asset
(LOA) Phase 2 review (A time to buy, 7 January 2022). To go with our existing
Base Case, we now add an Upside Case, which provides an indication as to
the potential value-add from Centamin’s Underground (UG) Expansion Case
(on which the company should complete a study in H2’22) and the bonanza
structure at Bast.
Our model suggests that the current share price is effectively pricing in the
Centamin’s Sukari Interim Case which, it has to be said, does include a
generous amount of upside (e.g. it assumes a significant amount of
underground Resource Conversion).
However, we feel reasonably confident that the UG Expansion Study will have
a positive outcome that is similar to, or better than, that currently presented
by Centamin. There is also the mouth-watering prospect of bonanza
structures being brought into the mine plan: we see the Bast structure turbo-
charging 2023 production, followed by the 5105 structure a year or two later.
Meanwhile, we were previously projecting relatively modest dividend yields of
c.2.2-2.6%. Whilst we still expect that for 2022 to be c.2.2%, our Upside
Case is indicating attractive yields of 3.2% in 2023 and 3.8% in 2024 –
despite that we expect the price of gold to be trending down towards
US$1,600/oz over that period.
With the froth now off, and potential for multiple exploration-related catalysts
during 2022 (in particular, we will be eagerly awaiting the results of the Sukari
airborne survey), we believe now to be the right time to reverse our call,
upgrading it to BUY.
Mining & Commodities | Gold | 07 January 2022^
Re: Time frame may be four years before Centamin gets at that higher grade ore?
https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1638960206374531900/centamin-expects-output-boost-after-sukari-gold-reserve-increase.aspx
The note from Liberum.
Re the underground operations they wrote:
"However, we feel reasonably confident that the UG Expansion Study will have a positive outcome that is similar to, or better than, that currently presented by Centamin. There is also the mouth-watering prospect of bonanza structures being brought into the mine plan: we see the Bast structure turbocharging 2023 production, followed by the 5105 structure a year or two later."
Re the open pit - from the LOA2 review, Centamin stated that the costs of the increased stripping will be more than offset by the improvement in grade from the open pit. However, and as per slide 16 from the presentation on 8.12.21, the head grade from the O/P will of course fall due to the fact of the stripping - which is over a 4 year period (there is a lot of waste rock being mined!) - however the feed into the processing plant remains constant for the next few years (see below). This is NOT factoring in any production from the bonanza grades identified (and commented on by Liberum), but is a base case and part of the whole process of being consistent in producing 450-500koz per annum. Remember, this accelerated stripping is mainly to provide flexibility for future years (as you know, it was under stripped in previous years), which feeds into the strategy to be consistent in gold production.
The company states the assumption grades remain low for the next 4 years is not correct
Hi Dasut, see the original Cowichan post below , so with that in mind I tried to find out more about his success rate and reliability, although all the people I contacted including geologists didn't really know anything about him, is'nt it time though that Centamin shareholders were given some substantiated evidence on these "Bonanza grades"considering their relevance in supporting the Centamin Sukari recovery, if you recall this find was a fundamental factor in getting Liberum Brokers to be more positive about Centamin
Mr McPhail found a Bonanza Zone at now defunct miner Wiluna Mining!
https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-mcphail-47907446/
This kinda disturbs me - especially considering his former work is under scrutiny for possibly** fudging numbers (see bottom link to The Australian article) and is currently in liquidation of assets.
The timeline: Just after McPhail was hired by Centamin to oversee the underground at Sukari (November 2021) Centamin 'discovers' a bonanza grade zone - exactly what transpired at the now defunct Wiluna Mining during Mr McPhail's tenure:
"Multiple bonanza grades with abundant coarse gold intersected at the Happy Jack zone has confirmed that Wiluna’s namesake project is a high-grade system.
Resource drilling at Happy Jack returned a top hit of 0.76m grading 773 grams per tonne (g/t) gold within a 1.99m zone at 298.8g/t gold."
https://wilunamining.com.au/bonanza-gold-hits-are-a-promising-sign-for-wiluna-resource-growth/
https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/WMC/02396969.pdf
So is it a quirky coincidence?
Probably!
But was this particular geologist hired because of his experience with complex free gold - or was he the impetus in magically finding a bonanza zone a month after he was hired?
Senior UG Geologist SUKARI GOLD MINES
Full-time Nov 2021 - Present · 10 mos
--------------------->>>
His former experience/history:
Wiluna Mining Senior UG Mine Geologist
Nov 2020 - Mar 2021 · 5 mos
UG Project Geologist UG Project Geologist
May 2020 - Nov 2020 · 7 mos Australia
"Interpretation with focus on ore body expression prior to LOM design. Structural analysis of drill data, UG mapping, wireframing, target generation, day to day production improvements within complex free gold..."
So how did Wiluna Mining go from amazing drill hits to defunct in just a short while?
And is this geologist/expert the best person to lead Sukari's bonanza grade zones in light of this questionable history?
** https://thewest.com.au/business/mining/wiluna-mining-administrators-at-fti-consulting-vow-to-probe-capital-raising-just-four-weeks-before-collapse-c-7717515
"Two weeks before it brought in the voluntary administrators, Wiluna swapped out its chair and also installed a new chief executive. It raised $57.4 million at the end of May, of which the administrators were still trying to find $7 million at the first creditors meeting on August 5."
Talk about keeping shareholders in the dark!
Sounds all
It's the only blue on my watchlist at the moment. Maybe sentiment for this one has changed?
Major European stock markets traded mostly lower on Wednesday in the premarket session amid updates on the economy of the area and news on the Ukraine crisis.
Earlier, Norwegian Defense Minister Bjorn Arild Gram stated that the United Kingdom and Norway would provide micro drones to Ukraine, which an estimated cost of up to NOK 90 million ($9.3 million).
Investors continue to assess the euro's situation against the dollar after it fell back to a fresh two-decade low yesterday. The euro was down by 0.11% against the dollar at 7:23 am CET, selling for $0.99575, thus strengthening its position below the parity line. Meanwhile, the pound lost 0.13% to go for $1.18219.
The DAX lost 0.43% at 7:02 am CET, while the CAC 40 fell 0.28%, and the FTSE 100 was flat. The Spanish IBEX 35 was also edging down by 0.17%.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JG
Happy hump y’al
Thanks Cowichan, fascinating and salutary article on the impending demise of the Euro which would certainly affect the gold price, great and scary read, thanks
Thanks Cowitchan
Tears to my eyes, so much so I accidentally put double malt on my porridge! I am alwys shocked when I go to Brussels. Where did the money come from, where does the money come from and who in their right mind would invent such a mind blowing mess of meticulous layer upon layer of "administration". Productivity is not in the picture and I have long suspected that any fair upstanding German, obsesssed with order and efficicencies, would feel ill at ease, and want to head for the door, before the system implodes? LOL.
What a glorious hoot !
Thanks so much, you have made my day
The gnome
Thinking goldgnome & a few others might enjoy this postulative post (warning: political-ish)
https://goodandprosper.substack.com/p/supercallifragilisticexpedialidocious
Siko it is always a shame when bulletin boards become like this, and become full of intolerant arguments about political views. However this board actually has far less political raving or insults than most. Siko you are hugely valued by me and many others for your views that are so pertinent to the company, as are the views of many on fiscal and more important monetary and interest rate policy that will affect the direction of gold, and of economies in general. I also hugely respect those who work in the NHS and devote their lives to helping others, it may or may not be well run - I am sure you have fascinating views on that - but that doesn't affect gold or Centamin so is an argument for elsewhere as you respect. I worked in the BBC and other media for many years and get very upset when some here call into question my colleagues integrity, who have all been tarnished by the clever fake news moniker, again nothing to do with our company. Please do not leave, Siko and hopefully views will be more about Centamin and what may affect it ,and gold, and as a result we will all respect and listen to each other more as not to do with Brexit, party politics, media, vaccines, etc. Dear Siko, despite these aberrations that just stir up the hornets nest of the last few years, this wonderful board is made up of optimists and pessimists, bulls and bears, buyers and sellers, and rightly so for who knows which way economies will go. and we can all learn from each other There are so many decent people here but none more so than yourself and it would be so upsetting if you left. Both I and Mr Tibbles have been driven away by intolerance and rants in the past, so they have always been here, but I do hope like us you miss it and return. God luck all
Tibbs you refer to a geologist called McPhail and would be grateful if you can advise where you obtained the report that he discovered the bonanza seams/areas.
All reported gold reserves have to be audited and I am wondering if that is what McPhail does for a living and that would maybe account for his nomadic life style.
Glut of courgettes Mr T. Done a few jars of gherkins as well. Advice to start stripping leaves off the tomatoes so they will ripen. Trying for more blackcurrant cuttings (HAVE you seen the price of jam?!!!!!!). Some sunflowers have popped their heads out and the bees are starting to enjoy them. Some plums frozen for jam making on the fire later in the year.
I've made a couple of batches of Plum wine , mainly for friends, and the apple wine season is almost upon us.
I am nowhere near self sufficient but getting a little better each year.
Life would be much easier for me if Centamin get cracking and start paying fat dividends.
I think this winter might be hard ------and little bits can help.
Have a good evening Mr T
Hi Tony,
Yes I agree and as you say the many other staff working just as hard in so many other areas to make peoples lives better also deserve recognition.
Hi Paul,
I hear what you say, but in reality there is'nt a lot to post about Centamin, the news flow to investors is pretty uninspiring to say the least, same old thing , promises of 'good time coming" and as for for the gold price it's just manipulated up and down!
So what's to discuss?
Anyway i hope your still enjoying the garden and the wildlife, they are the important things!
Fair comments Steve!
Hi Mizolgit, certainly not my politics but everyone's politics and equally accessible as is the NHS allegedly, although the the growing number of people who's once treatable medical conditions have worsened to such an extent that they are now terminal would disagree, the government of the day and the NHS has failed them and caused them to suffer premature death and is now still using the pandemic as a get out of jail free card!
https://www.pimco.com.au/en-au/marketintelligence/investing-in-todays-markets/how-might-political-events-influence-markets/
https://arqwealth.com/how-is-the-stock-market-impacted-by-politics/
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20277316.politics-impact-markets/
So move on -
Some say keep the discussion gold, but then have nothing to say, pretty boring and pointless!
The ones that usually moan the most if anything posted in good faith about Centamin but then doesn't pan out are the ones who never post any news themselves and most likely never write to Centamin, or if they do they never share the information.
How many of the "Keep it gold" moaners have written to Centamin asking for some substantiated evidence of the existence of the "Bonanza grades"?
It seems strange that none of the former geologists that were familiar with the geological structure of Sukari for many years never found these grades and yet a wandering geologist Mr Mc Phail should find them in such a short time and one who appears to spend very short stints of work at various other mining companies?
Now why is that?
Before Centamin:
AngloGold - 9 months
Wiluna - 11 months
Porgera JV - 1 year + 5 months
Also the timing of the discovery of these "Bonanza Grades" was fortuitous to say the least?
Lets hope theses grades really are as good as claimed,, but as yet there is no substantiated proof!