The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Bloomberg commentary suggesting pound is now on the slide down. This makes it harder to predict how Centamin reacts to any pullback on gold as earnings when converted to pounds does not change much.
Correction… that being increased from 4.95 to 5.04%
Blackrock increased their holdings from 4.9 to 5.09 %
Equities in Europe traded with gains in the premarket on Tuesday. This comes as investors continue to digest the European Commission's growth forecast and inflation expectations.
During the day, data on the United Kingdom's unemployment rate and German economic sentiment will also be published.
At 7:38 am CET, DAX went up 0.18%. Both FTSE 100 and Euro Stoxx 50 increased 0.19% and 0.22% simultaneously. The CAC 40 gained 0.24% at the same time. The euro was down by 0.11% against the dollar at 7:41 am CET, selling for 1.07383. The pound was flat against the dollar and went for 1.25123 a minute later.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / DD
Tuesday wrote Mr. Kipling…
Gold price to hit $5K in 3 years,watch the default wave kick off US recessionin Q4. Michael Lee.
5K ? 2.5 K would be more realistic, but worth a watch.
Good cpi on Weds and gold will go up- inflation drops not as good as expected and gold will drop-
Doesn’t matter what the charts say- SP is driven by economic data and events (and RNS of course)
Initially I thought it might be a pennant or a triangle in the weekly chart but the pattern during September looks like a flag formation with 3 weeks still to run. Happy to see other chart folk comment on what they can see. October is starting to look like a volatile month. I am not expecting that much to happen in September as we got pass USA Labour day with little follow through on direction. For this week we shall see if they pull back a bit on USD. If the markets pump USD, I suspect China and Japan to defend their currencies and not have imported inflation.
Thank you Tornado
Correction in previous
So if the company was earning 5 cents a share last year and it is earning 7.5 cents this year, the issue is the profit if the USD and pound sterling rate was the same and so we should have a higher share value (and currently they do not despite the pound barely increasing value against USD).
Its been in everyone faces for quite a long time .The figures the US have been using were odd.
How many revisions does it take for them to not learn from affecting the market prices.
But of course they dont really care as long as they can stop the precious $ from slipping.
Biden goverenment needed it to appear still in control till the next elections, the $ needed it to keep confidence in the Reserve Currency.
It is really fraud on a grand scale.
Sotolo the 3 to 1 ratio worked many years ago. What has changed for the miners was the host government take either on profit share, royalties or central and local taxes. It is not so much inflation but what governments leave the miner with to make money from the gold price.
A second factor for the miners is production growth and for Centamin it has run on a 5% increase for what will be two years running. Increased production equals higher revenue if the gold price was the same as the previous year. for Centamin the average gold price last year is far less than the current year. This is visible of the increased profits and earnings per share on the H1 interims. So if the company was earning 5 cents a share last year and it is earning 7.5 cents this issue as profit then the company if the USD and pound sterling rate was the same should have a higher share value (and currently they do not despite the pound barely increasing value against USD). The AISC last year is broadly the same as this year and centamin has managed out the negative impact of inflation through a vast number of efficiencies plus 5% increased production.
What has changed is the volumes being traded, the heavy shorting of gold miner ETFs in a less liquid market and the effect is to collapse the forward PE rate from 16 to around 7.5. The historical PE rate since profit sharing was around 15. The PE rate is now back at levels seen in 2014 when production was far lower along with the gold price and there was no profit share. When the profit share was fully introduced the PE rate was doubled in that year. The argument being made is that high interest rates should reduce the PE rate which appears to have been applied on gold miners and possibly bank stocks. All other sectors appear to retain high PE rates as they had before and await a future correction. I therefore see the down side on Centamin as being substantially delivered. It does not mean it can slip further down but this idea that it may fall 35% after falling 32% already this year does not suggest this share going to 56p. We have to note this share has been falling for months already.
Https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-silver-are-facing-2008-conditions
https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/something-isnt-adding-us-debt-soars-2-trillion-2023
Is this he article Tornado?
The gold miners’ stocks just entered the autumn market busy season on the wrong foot, selling off as traders returned from summer’s last long weekend. That has fortified the bearish sentiment this sector suffered in recent months. With football on the mind, gold stocks’ back-and-forth action reminds me of plenty of big games. While a key drive to new upleg highs was fumbled, gold stocks are still in the game.
https://rb.gy/00rx0
Flaw. Apple spelling for me!
In essence that is because when gold falls 10% CEY profits fall 30%, and when gold rises, CEY profits rise three times as fast, the multiplier affect, which is why many of us like miners. The floor in this is that costs keep rising so over the longer term the downward multiplier is greater and the upward multiplier is less
Tony,
I don't disagree that PM's are undervalued, they are.
However, there is no doubt months before the Lehmans out of business and March2020 was bad for gold and CEY- if I thought similar was on it's way now I would not hold PM stocks- it's simply crazy to do so. Simply wait, and pick them up when they drop far lower which they would do in that scenario:
March - Nov 2008 (before Lehmans) = gold down 25% and CEY down 54%
March 2020 = gold down 12% and CEY down 35%
These are the historical facts.
Equities in Europe traded mixed in the premarket on Monday after the elections were held in all Ukrainian regions annexed by Russia over the weekend. The head of the Central Election Commission for United Russia, Alexander Sidyakin, announced that, according to preliminary data, Putin's party received the majority of votes.
At 8:00 am CET, DAX was flat. Both FTSE 100 and Euro Stoxx 50 increased 0.35% and 0.21% simultaneously. The CAC 40 decreased 0.11%. The euro was up by 0.27% against the dollar at 7:59 am CET, selling for 1.07288. The pound went up against the dollar 0.38% and went for 1.25136 concurrently.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / DD
Happy Monday y’al
Steve
It was not dire for long. Gold and gold miners have dropped back for some time. The gold miners are generally oversold and the sentiment level is rapidly approaching levels that are 90% bearish. The ETFs have massively sold off gold for months. The HUI mining sector and gold was bombed out first in 2008 and it was the very first to pull out and recover. The fact that this sector is getting absolutely hammered at least in the mining stocks suggests they are pricing in something really big unfolding. Hopefully the truth emerges instead of outright manipulation and fraud of official stats. Gold eagle has an article on tonight. It may take a few weeks for things to show up and in the short term they may and try and make things more bearish with more false economic data. A lot of sources are now saying the data does not look right and it appears to be done to hoist up USD. Tony
September 08, 2023
The deteriorating relationship between the world’s two most populous countries is threatening to set back the BRICS currency project and undermine the bloc’s de-dollarization goals.
https://tinyurl.com/4dw7fp6c
Difference this time is that the banks have to comply with "Basel 3".
Tony- march2020 and a few months before lehmans down was dire for gold and cey- not sure why you cite this with a positive slant ?
New CAPD investment in Wia Gold24 Aug 2023 07:51
CAPD took part in Wia Gold's recent A$11m fundraising at A$0.032 (a 20% discount ot the share price at the time), summarised here:
Https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02689236-6A1159402?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
Per their disclosure CAPD now own 19.9% of Wia, or 183,216,279 shares - these are now worth around £3.4m at the current A$0.037 price, so CAPD have made a decent profit already on their purchase of around 123m shares:
Https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02701796-6A1164548?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
Unfortunate, all of them now planning to sell as much as they can.
Ooops made an error $488M is only 1/2000 of QT. So maybe not that big of event next week.