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Major stock indexes traded below the flatline premarket on Monday as concerns regarding the renewed surge in coronavirus cases weighed on investors' optimism. The British government said that it will not make green passes mandatory to access crowded spaces. European Commission's Valdis Dombrovskis stated that all members of the EU are expected to return to pre-pandemic GDP levels by 2022.
The FTSE 100 was 0.10% in the red at 7:42 am CET, while the DAX lost 0.20%. The CAC 40 decreased 0.36%.
The euro dropped 0.17% against the greenback at 7:43 am CET, selling for $1.17906. The pound was flat at the same time, changing hands for $1.38196.
Breaking the News / MD
It's not a pleasing sign to see the investments go down the drain. Thought they have hit the bottom few months ago around 100p, but looks like this is in a relentless downward trend. With the likelihood of a fall in gold prices in the short term, i suspect 82P target looks a possibility.
I added at 89.58p.
Explain where you get 82p from? Plucked from thin air I'd believe. What's the lottery numbers for this week seeing as we're at the guessing stage? Idiot post if ever there was..
I think 82p is Liberum's prediction.
138p Berenberg
150p Peel Hunt
I take little notice or broker targets, they all have their own agendas.
Liberium Cey@82p
Yuen Low values
+44 (0) 20 3100 2091
yuen.low@liberum.com
Ben Davis
+44 (0) 20 3100 2083
ben.davis@liberum.com
Tom Price
+44 (0) 20 3100 2085
tom.price@liberum.com
Q2’21 production was 100koz at cash costs of US$883/oz
and All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) of US$1,290/oz (Q1’21:
104koz @ US$733/oz cash cost, US$1,091/oz AISC).
Centamin is therefore on-track to meet its full-year 2021
target of 400-430koz @ US$800-900/oz cash cost and
US$1,150-1,250/oz AISC. We see this as an important
‘result’ in that Centamin has been investing heavily for
operational reliability in order to restore market confidence
in the company’s ability to meet guidance.
Egyptian Bid Round exploration licence terms agreed
Earlier this month, terms were agreed over three gold exploration blocks
(incorporating 19 licences) covering 3,164km2
) in Egypt’s Arabian Nubian
Shield (subject to final legal formalities, which Centamin expects to complete
in Q3 2021). Terms were agreed under the new Egyptian mining code,
following a tax, rent & royalty framework (28% tax, 5% royalty and 15% freecarried interest for the government), with the new licences independent from
the Concession Agreement (CA) for Sukari. We understand that one of the
blocks is around Sukari, suggesting potential to discovering satellite
orebodies within trucking distance of the plant. How this would work in terms
of the interaction of the CA and the new framework remains to be worked out.
Centamin
22 July 2021
we had modelled 88.0% for H1 2021, versus the realised recovery of 88.8%
(with Q2 at 89.3%).
H1 unit costs at lower end of full-year guidance range
Total cash costs and AISC came in at US$883/oz and US$1,186/oz in Q2
2021, for H1 averages of US$807/oz and US$1,186/oz – i.e., at the lower end
of Centamin’s full-year guidance is for US$800-900/oz cash cost and
US$1,150-1,250/oz, respectively. We had modelled US$868/oz and
US$1,216/oz, respectively.
Capex guidance maintained, but more H2-weighted
Capex spend in H1 2021 amounted to US$78.3m, but full-year capex
guidance remains US$225m – i.e. 65% in H2 (previously 55%), due to certain
payments being rescheduled to Q3 2021.
Balance sheet remains strong
As at 30 June 2021, Centamin had US$312m of cash and liquid assets (March
2021: US$331m), after the final dividend of US$34.5m and Sukari profit share
distribution in H1 2021 of US$45.7m, with no debt and no hedging. Detailed
H1 2021 financials are to be released on 5 August 2021.
Phase 2 of Sukari Life of Asset (LOA) review by end 2021
An updated structural model was completed for Sukari in Q2 2021, which will
be integrated into the full geological model in Q3 2021. An updated resource
estimate will underpin Phase 2 of the LOA review, which Centamin continues
to expect to complete by the end of 2021.
Thanks Mr T
Perhaps you could also table the history of the analysts predictions. There are distinct disadvantages in predicting the share price of exploration and mining companies accurately if one has never worked on a mine nor knows anything about what happens in exploration and mining. The analysts in Oz, seem very willing to predict to their wants, or the wants of their firm, as odd as that may sound. That is if they want to buy, they tell you to sell, and vice versa. I got a call last week from some well meaning men in suits wanting me to sell a wad of my uranium stocks, as the "time was right to exit" (mine was a heavy position). The stocks have risen 30-40% since receiving the hot tip. Funny about that...but of course I could have off loaded the lot!?
Prediction as a theme has been getting a flogging here in Oz. The Epidemiologists have been showing some clean heals to the Economists, and have been a bit too willing to throw out a raft of predictions, none of which seem to have been correct in the last 18 months (been a never ending spray though, exhausting stuff!). Epidemic forecasting has a dubious track-record, and its failures became more prominent with COVID-19. Poor data input, wrong modeling assumptions, high sensitivity of estimates, lack of incorporation of epidemiological features, poor past evidence on effects of available interventions, lack of transparency, errors in diagnosis of deaths, uncertainty about mode of transmission, uncertainty about masks and tyes of masks (etc), lack of determinacy, consideration of only one or a few dimensions of the problem at hand, lack of expertise in crucial disciplines, groupthink and bandwagon effects, and selective reporting are some of the causes of these failures..in summary, garbage in and garbage out.
Not sure what the modelling algorithms are like at Liberium, but I do have my doubts abiut their veracity and predictive ability.
good luck to the punters
best
the gnome.
It's rather amusing how incredibly wrong the brokers appear to be almost across the board. Whenever I've spoken to those who interact with them, they always tell me the brokers they meet are young, lacking knowledge about the business, and almost totally fail to grasp the real issues that will impact the business. And they always have an ulterior motive. The shorting community is even worse. They should be hung from their genitalia and force-fed doughnuts until the increasing weight of their miserable bodies rips their family bits right off. Only joking.
A bit scary .I am tempted to sell.I may have to sell to complete my house extension.https://youtu.be/yQ0G6GLehXs
Well that was a little different . Thanks for sharing . I have watched most of your other videos . Regards to Janine. I do like her boot scooter.
Hi Mr Gnome,
I know you will be aware I certainly don't share Liberians view or heed their recommendations , they are taking advantage of the preset situation and almost certainly working to an agenda.
Although to be fair even though Liberian are desperately trying to drive the share Cey share price down for whatever reason, yet despite this they are forced to acknowledge that things are improving and despite where the share price things will get better, they know that if truth be known only idiots would be selling at this price!
To be honest I only have Liberians previous Cey report of 2020 at hand .
I do hope you put your questions into Centamin?
Cowicahn has been working much harder on share holders behalf than some on here will ever realise , he is to be commended!
It would be improper in some respects for me to go into details in an open forum such as this and even if I did some would only be sarcastic, so bugger them, but as a results of recent events I can honestly say I have every confidence in Martin Horgan as CEO!
Tibbs
Thanks Mr T
Yes, I sent the questions into CEY, to Alexandra. So far no acknowledgement, which is professionally unacceptable. It takes about 10 seconds to acknowledge the email, and you can even do this on auto-pilot.
I have some serious concerns with their ability to communicate, which, at the risk of at least boring to myself, I will not repeat.
Suffice to say they will be called by me in the next few hours. Their professional duty to communicate with the owners is a fundamental tenet of the corporate entity. Right now they are a FAIL in this department, which I will remind them of.
best
the Gnome
Well the Head of Corporaate Communicationsis missingin action. Cannot answer a phone, and canot respond to an email, even tough it might take 10 seonds to say, ...thanks
Appalling! lets see how this works out.
Will keep you informed.
The owners..own.
Unless they chose to not be heard.
best
the Gnome
Well, I must say my medicine has got the better of me, and one has to enjoy ones self, before one .. well ... drifts away!
" A single sentence will suffice the modern man: He fornicated and read the papers" A. Camus THE FALL
If only!
Not sure where I am drifiting, but the massive amount of government and personal debt in the world does beg a poor man to ask why bother with saving a few bob? An dgiven a ob cannot attract any interst, then why would not one spend a bob...?
Of course if you did follow Edward Bernays (you were a woman and smoked slim cigarettes, because you looked ...slim and very desirable to rich men!) and his modern counter parts (there are a few), then the answer, is light em up!
Zero alcohol wines flying off the shelves in Oz (sobering thought), and 60+% of the population and business is in lockdown, but everything is alright? (Give me-a--BREAK-down)
strange world, and in time of uncertainty..buy gold! or gold mining companies with long life and good EBITADA margins ....
the Gnome
Hi Mr Gnome,
I feel sure you will get a response before too long!
Let's wait and see!
Tibbs
Hi Mr Gnome,
It seems that over the past few days there have been quite number of retail investors written communications received at Centamin, yours may well be amongst them.
Also The Denver Forum has resulted in a considerable extra workload for the relevant Centamin staff.
But although invigorated interest in Centamin is all to the good, it is unfortunately most probably the reason you haven't received any reply as yet.
Hope that helps
Thanks Mr T
Still not even a 10 second acknowledgement of the emial from the "INVESTOR RELATIONS" ""MANAGER""
A TRULY PATHETIC EFFORT BY ANY MEASURE, AND A TOTAL FAIL.
the Gnome
Hi Mr T
I have sent another email with an upgrade in my questions...and copy to info@centaminplc.com
I have previously tried contacting your "HEAD OF CORPORATE COMMUNICATIONS" but so far have not even had a 10 second, "yes we have your questions and will revert", which is very disturbing and unprofessional, hence I thought I would try another email.
I have several questions which I would like your company to answer. The answer can be made public, and I would prefer in writing, but happy to take a call
to clarify questions.
1. What portion of your Exploration budget will be spent on near mine versus new mine discovery?
2. What portion of your "new mine discovery" budget will be directed at new mines in Egypt, versus new mines out of Egypt?
3. What are your plans for creating value in the short term from the assets you hold in West Africa, and what do you see as the most significant risks in achieving these (and how do you plan
to manage such risks?)
4. What efforts is the company going to, to assess acquisition and merger opportunities? Is this formalised and are management/ staff accountable for this, or otherwise?
5. What are the major cost saving initiatives being put in place now and in the next 3 years?
6. CEY is undervalued now, how does the board plan to create value in the next 1 year, and given that this would entail several initiatives, can you prioritise the initiatives.
7. CEY is undervalued now, how does the board plan to create value in the next 5 years.
8. Your Investor Relations Manager is supposedly Alexandra Carse.Head of Corporate Communications and email is investor@centaminplc.com. If this is correct why does it take 2 days for the person not to acknowledge receipt of my email?
Needs improvement, to say the least. MIght try Youssef next?
the gnome
I got an auto reply...see below LOL.
Thank you for your email, should your message relate to a job or working enquiry please re-send your email to working@centaminplc.com so that it processed by our Human Resources team. Please note that you will not receive a response regarding your application from this mail box.
Thank you and good luck.
Human Resources Department
Well I was too quick! Response below
"Thank you for your questions. These are very timely, because
1) Centamin will be hosting a Geology Capital Markets Event (details attached) on Thursday, 23 September where questions 1-3 will be discussed [see announcement of Sept 9], and
2) Centamin are planning to host a Retail Investor Event (date to be confirmed) to create an open forum with our retail community and address any outstanding questions. Once we have the finalised details of that event, we will issue an announcement and these questions will be included in the Q&A.
Specifically with regards question 5, I have pasted the below slide from our latest investor presentation (s12)(https://www.centamin.com/investors/presentations-webcasts/), which details some of the many key cost savings iniatives."
My apologies for being so fast out of the blocks...c u on Sept 23!!!
best
the gnome
Hi Mr Gnome,
Glad to hear that you received your reply, I understand replies to investors have been delayed because of some temporary disruption in normal service due to the self isolation of the relevant staff unfortunately coinciding with the Denver conference and sudden upsurge in received enquires from existing and potential new investors.
I'm sure we all send our best wishes to the members of staff concerned and hope they make a full and speedy recovery to full health and despite this interruption in normal service also start to feel uplifted about the invigoration of retail and institutional investor interest in Centamin!
it's also very encouraging to learn that more retail investors are making the effort to write to Centamin!
Possibly soon time to think about dusting off the golden flips flops!
Tibbs
Thanks Mr T.
They are not investors, they are owners of the business. If the owners of the business
cannot be bothered with following the progress of the business and asking the tough pertinent questions of mngt, then good luck to them. This kind of behaviour does lead to lax management though....what goes around comes around...so to speak
So speak up, get the critical questions onto the table and into the forum...now.
best
the gnome.
Quite so Mr Gnome,
Martin Horgan is adamant in his belief that it is all the share holders that own the business and whatever the number of sharers held they all have the right to be heard by the management board and their opinions and questions treated with with equal importance.
I understand it only a very small number of UK based staff who are self isolating at present due to contact with others and so are now working from home until they get the all clear.
So this may well be why replies to recent enquiries are taking longer.