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The times we live in and try to predict in, are unusual, new times, new paradigms.
Ann intersting book that reflects our times, and sees the economists come clean is
Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers Hardcover – March 17, 2020
by John Kay Mervyn King
"Much economic advice is bogus quantification, warn two leading experts in this essential book. Invented numbers offer false security; we need instead robust narratives that yield the confidence to manage uncertainty.
Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry’s actuarial tables and the gambler’s roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one?not least Steve Jobs?knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package?what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050??demonstrate only that their advice is worthless..."
https://www.amazon.com/Radical-Uncertainty-Decision-Making-Beyond-Numbers/dp/1324004770
And all the gold punters knows what happens in times of uncertainty....
best
the gnome
Hi Mr Gnome,
How about this for a waste of money by our government, a clear indication of their desperation to cover up their lies and failed policies which are now becoming more apparent by the day!
Boris Johnson's administration is recruiting an external adviser to identify new opportunities following Brexit to demonstrate the benefits of the UK's departure from the European Union.
Almost five years on from the Brexit referendum result, the Tory government continues to struggle to demonstrate the tangible benefits of leaving the EU.
It has set former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith in charge of how Britain can reshape the economy, but his task force is yet to publicly report back with suggestions.
Now Brexit negotiator David Frost - now tasked with shaping the UK's post-Brexit with the EU, has revealed the government is looking to hire someone to demonstrate the opportunities.
Speaking to a committee of MPs, he said: “We have high hopes of outside input into this process. We’re all fully behind making things happen.”
High hopes indeed, what utter tosh, these idiots have taken the UK back 50 years!
In case you aren't aware Ian Duncan Smith has proven to be inept in every post he has ever held, indeed if he were a meal then he would be referred to as "Bland!" or about as inspiring as a limp dishcloth!
Mervyn King lost all credibility when he and his cohorts finally put the lid on the free market economy.
It's led to the printing press for any economic difficulty that arises. A monetary reset awaits.
I didn't need an econometric model to tell me that.
As I said, we have the wrong people leading at the wrong time. Human nature never changes. I cannot see the saviour in the crowd. We'll have to save ourselves - if we know how to.
Redsparrow.
Mervyn is not my pin up idle. Economics could do so much better if it adopted scientific rigour instead of befuddling itself with a basement of non earth assumptions
Nevertheless they try. Need to clean up their assumptions and their goals
Best
Redsparrow.
Mervyn is not my pin up idle. Economics could do so much better if it adopted scientific rigour instead of befuddling itself with a basement of non earth assumptions
Nevertheless they try. Need to clean up their assumptions and their goals get rid of the goats.
Interesting that 2 classes .. politicians and economists have mostly never had a job know how the real world works...yet waffle and write adnauseum
Best
Goldgnome
I like the 'workers' and 'jerkers' theme you've got going on here.
The problem is that you need to know about a subject in order to detect when someone is a con artist. I applies to everything.
Economics is in a complete mess at the moment. I'd hate to be reading it now - it was bad enough when Thatcher and Major were haunting the place.
No amount of theory can be a substitute for hard work, producing quality goods and services and having a sustainable level of government expenditure. The kinds of economists who advocate that, are persona non grata and have been for many years. But their day will come again, but not in my working lifetime. Thank God for small mercies.