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It depends who is in charge and what the agenda/objective is. - Don't assume that Horgan has hold of the reins. - The recent military-connection appointment is most revealing. - IMO.
Probably when central banks,start easing rates.
or the dollar,goes into a downtrend
Gold is about where it was 3 years ago and yet the cost base, due to inflation, has risen massively-
Has the ounces increased to cover this delta? No
Steve and other readers,
You are underestimating the innovations at Centamin such as a reduction of $120M in costs thus far and $30M more being delivered in the coming months. As a consequence the AISC has not changed in the last 12 months. There was a cost increase over 2019 by around $300 an ounce but the gold price was $1500 an ounce in August. The profit range was $600 an ounce say and today it is about $650. Production is likely to be is up say 10% in that time frame but a lot of benefits are unseen because of the additional stripping.
Tony
Nope, hence the SP- you are underestimating inflation impact
Hi Tornado,
I agree with you, also with the completion of the excess waste clearance contract there should be be a very considerable reduction in CAPX whilst providing great improvements in operational efficiency, flexibility and safety!
All positive for market confidence building and increased profits!
And hopefully a nice fat "Sorry you all got shafted by the last lots dodgy operating" dividend, that does not come at the cost of cutting corners, artificial figures and 3 years of suffering to pay for it.
AND I think a nice " We have been through some difficult times at Sukari, but now, due to brave decisions and good practices, we are in a position to move forward and increase the amounts of gold we mine and the profits we make. I'd like to thank all long term holders for their patience and faith" from Martin Horgan would be a nice touch.
I still think last 3 years is inflation primary cause- cey sell gold- if their costs of extracting it rise way higher and faster than the price they can charge for the product they sell, they make less money- it’s that simple.
Of course, this cost of extracting was exacerbated further by the additional waste clearing that still hasn’t finished since the wall issue.
Quite agree with Steve. What will turn our share price round is higher profits. For considerably higher profits, we need higher gold prices in real terms. Inflation has been near 20% over the last couple of years so that is near $400 that the gold price has to be higher to be the same in real terms! Ounces help, cost cutting helps but the big thing is the difference between costs and selling price, costs can be reduced a little but tough with high inflation and in real terms the management has started successfully reducing them, but the big motor has to be higher real gold prices. If or when who know, a pure gamble especially in the shorter term. We all remain full of hope….so yes add inflation to those comparisons
Hi Sotolo,
Thank you for the explanation re HOC vs CEY , interesting, I take the point about inflation on Cey profits but in in my view that cost would have been far more manageable and less noticeable had it not been for staggering and drawn costs of the Sukari clean up combined with the erosion of market trust in the company.
Hi Paul, I agree, although most BOD are just tike politicians they rarely if ever want to admit they got it wrong , they much prefer to kick the can down the road until fate forces them to change course and then they blame anything and anyone , but its never them!
Very similar has occurred with this now known to be unfit for purpose concrete problem in schools and other public building , just like at Sukari the developers saw using it as a way to make a bit more at less cost and the politicians went along with it because it looked better on the budget sheets in the short term, but now that cheaper concrete is going to cost an awful lot mote in the long term to put right,
The same applies for many property management companies and trust's that invest in all sorts of properties for rent or lease, its' called "Squeezing the asset!" by spending the absolute minimum on their routine maintenance, or routine waste stripping in the case of Sukari, they failed to maintain the ATM so it stopped spitting out cash!
To be fair similar things happen with estate sections in local authorities , I've experienced when rather than do a timely repair on the roof of a museum it was it was decided that by not doing it would save much over a period of years, unfortunately though the roof then usually falls in or the building gets so damp its unusable!
As you say some acknowledgement or thanks to long term investors by the BOD would seem to be more than appropriate!
Tibbs
Mr T, thank you for your courtesy as ever