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The image you paint of the Egyptian people and their willingness to support one another is inspiring.
As far as our differing theses regarding the Sisi regime and the Egyptian people's willingness to support him come what may - many journalists in the region have a different opinion.
This article just from a day ago refers to Sisi labelling those who dare report on economic difficulties in Egypt as “terrorist group and spreading false news” - that's not good for attracting foreign investment dollars they so desperately need.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/25/al-jazeera-slams-naming-of-its-journalists-on-egypt-terror-list
I read that since Sisi came to power his regime has borrowed $100 billion US dollars from Egypt's Arab neighbors. And that with NO way to pay it back. Already Egypt is paying out
56% of it's 2023/2024 budget in interest payments alone.
That means Egypt only keeps 46% of revenue to pay for things like bread subsidies etc.
This is not sustainable, especially considering the buying power of the Egyptian pound is half of what it was - when they need to pay for food imports it costs them more than double as it did just a year ago.
Sorry to say but I would not reinvest in Centamin even should its stock price be cut in half - I'll wait to see if the country 'reboots' and if Centamin emerges on the other side intact,
it is a shame Centamin blew it's cash hoard on a massively overpriced waste contract and West African adventures - because that cash could have helped weather the storm -
now Mr Horgan is forced to spend shareholder's wealth to the tune of a cool $6 million - forced upon them by management's oh so woke 'sustainability line of credit' contractual agreements - just to ensure the gold price doesn't fall beyond a London banker's predetermined level -
I know now that Mr Horgan doesn't run the company to the benefit of shareholders but to the benefit of his circle of banker, corporate and industrial friends -
further reading
https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/egypt-is-in-serious-trouble-seven-decades-after-its-free-officers-revolution/
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/egypts-zohr-gas-field-reach-15-bln-investments-three-years-government-2023-07-24/
Hi Cowichan,
I was only addressing the nationalization point. You are of course not happy with many other points regarding Egypt and centamin, but these are not for me to comment about..
Politics, Centamin contracts with Capital Drilling, West Africa, management performance, and your decision not to buy now even should the SP cut in half.. All these points I think other holders could respond to, but as a non-holder, this is not my area...
One point though, there is a huge difference between (Sisi is going nowhere as people understand that the country can't afford another revolution) as I put it, and (Sisi regime and the Egyptian people's willingness to support him) as you put it.. They (have to) get on with things as they are, because the other choice would make things a lot worse for them, but that doesn't mean they (support) him.. A big difference..
Siko
Another article on top of the one I posted last week-
https://enterprise.press/stories/2022/06/15/egypts-fdi-might-outdo-much-of-the-world-in-2022-73779/
Again, I ask, why on earth would Egypt put at risk foreign investment by nationalising? Bonkers, it simply makes zero sense on any level.
Hi Steve,
Why worry as I explained previously the Sukari operation may be regarded as 50% nationalised or 50% privatised.
At the end of the concession licence Sukari and all the equipment is handed over to the government.
It has always been a partnership that has worked up to a point and is very unlikely to change because it suits all concerned.
Not worried, this is my point.
Possibly you took my comment out of context, it was addressed to everyone as I was agreeing with your point in general that nationalising the other 50 % of the Sukari agreement as very unlikely, especially as at present and no doubt for the foreseeable future Sukari Cenatmin is the Eygptian mining industry!
It will be years down the road before any of the other concession winners will be producing anything, possibly never!