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So looking forward a year, how do you think /HOPE we will be doing then?
After the wall episode 3 years ago the price more than halved in about 3 months. Since then it has more or less hovered between 80p and 120p.
Martin Horgan has been in charge for a couple of years and instigated the waste clearance along with a few other things to cut costs. So with the waste clearance scheduled to end in summer next year and hopefully the AISC should drop a lot, how do you see the share price and the dividend?
A rise, inflation dropping (with some costs actually deflating).
As for the drop in AISC due to end of waste clear excess (obvs there will always be some continual clear, but the excess)
it's just a question of when. I trade so in and out a lot- so for me am more interested in continued volatility- but with a continual upside, it's far easier!
What you could do is look at their latest online presentation on their website- it will show their longterm view. Whether you think what they think will happen, will happen, is up to you to decide on the SP impact.
Paul I have lost faith in Hogan, so far all he has done is go after low hanging fruit in so called "cost savings and spent a lot of money on an obvious long term solution that is not yet proven to pay off.
He has shown little or no vision and done nothing strategic that positively impacts the share price, instead kick the can down the road letting shareholder take the hit and is now being deserted by institutional investors, meanwhile he and the (invisible) board become rich milking shares, salary and bonuses over endless years to come.
If Horgan truly is a leading player in the industry it is time for him to pull his finger out and deliver on share price improvement. As for the him and the board pay them in proportion to SP performance., right now and in the long term that will be the true measure of their performance.
Well some people have been expecting inflation to drop for a long time and it doesn't seem to be doing so yet.
If people on here are losing faith in Martin Hogan then it is not surprising that the market is as well---although this board cannot influence the market.
Regarding the "low hanging fruit" , I think the previous lot went after that in terms of what gold they could get out quickly before "Doing one" as they had painted themselves into a corner regarding actually mining gold.
I'm happy with cost savings as AISC are important and should help increase profits.
I agree that the boards pay should be linked to share price or even profit. As you know , I'd like to see regular buys by the board to give confidence.
Maybe Dasut or someone will come on and reassure us as a lot of people on this board seem to be pretty down about this share now?
I am really hoping that the spade work will start to show some good results soon and we will get a good boost in share price and in dividends.
The performance thus far over 2022 has been over 7% year on year improvement on attributable growth in profit to shareholders. The exploration results on the Nugrus block that is adjacent to Sukari is awaited. The life of mine plan at Sukari will also be of interest. Grade improvement of gold mine was up 0.06g/tonne from Q1 to Q2.
I have a policy of not writing on boards that I have not invested in. Unfortunately on most boards on LSE we have individuals who own no shares, but feel they have some kind of duty to down ramp investment in particular stocks. I have put up with shed loads of it on the RBW board which eventually has gone up 100% in 4 months. All of the down rampers were invested in competitor companies. They still deliver garbage on that page despite brilliant news. I would only say it is important for us to do our own research and note who gets it right most of the time and reports unbiased facts like mentioning which investors increase in Centamin and only who reduced a particular position as an example.
Well said Tony, and for me it is good to see you on HZM chat, although my holding there is a lot less than CEY.
I very much appreciate your open approach and that you share your thoughts and information on technicals, wider econmomics and even trades.
Hi Paul,
Agree with you entirely!
As Dasut has already explained to rectify so many years of inappropriate mining practice at Sukari was going to take several years and require a very considerable increase in CAPEX!
It seems to me as though Martin Horgan and his team have almost had to start again at Sukari !
Whilst some may choose to try to claim the previous managements misdoings are all in the past , that legacy is very much in the present until the awful mess that Pardey and Co made is finally cleared away and who really knows if that will be 2024, or even later , I'm sure we all hope the completion will be the former!
I agree with Tornado the next quarters results are crucial because until there is some real evidence of substantially improved quarterly figures released this share remains in the bargain bucket of penny shares!
Whilst such uncertainty remains would it be right to consider Centamin as an investment,likely not!
No wonder there is so much despondency amongst long term shareholders!
Tibbs
I'm hoping Mr T that things start to improve quite quickly from now on. Also I hope that in a couple of years we are looking back and thinking that Martin Horgan did the right thing in clearing things away to allow better access in future.
Like yourself, for quite a while I've had a feeling that he almost had to start from scratch. It looks now like the waste clearance is partly being done to open things up and give flexibility and options for the future.
I really would like to see some share buys by the board and for things to really start improving now. It's been a long time coming. Remember when we were over £2 and Sotolo was predicting £3? I'd be quite interested on what those figures were based on. I mean the market must have believed the shares were worth £2-20?
Hi Paul,
You recall Kees Dekker's two reports that flagged up serious concerns in 2016 & 2018 , I belive Pardey realised even in 2016 that some radical reshaping of how things wee being done was needed, but the management also knowe how the CAPX required would be a major drain on the profits flow and so decided to save on the expenditure and keep on taking the profits for as long as they could gloss over the cracks in their mining plan!
As you may be aware EMRA have representatives permanently on site but they likely the didn't care a jot about the actual physical state of the mine and in any case all they were concerned about was maximising their share of the profits!
Kees Dekker believes that Martin Horgan's present strategy of reshaping and creating more flexibility in the Sukari operation is the best and only way to turn the mine around so it can achieve its full potential !
So lets keep our fingers crossed that this time thong really will be differnt!
Tibbs
So what do you think will turn this share around?
Will good figures next time round do it? The clearance coming to an end? ---------lower AISC or something else?
Inflation- a FED pause, then prediction to drop.
Coupled with an above expectation RNS at next Q.
A random, out of the blue offer of £1.50 per share for the company.
Hi Paul, relevant comparison of SP between HOC & CEY which seems to defy logic , Cey seems to be the better bet by far, so why doesn't the share price reflect that?
Likely due to several reasons, the number of times the previous mana, failed to deliver and it has now been proven they deceived the market and shareholders about the true state of Sukari for a number of years which has almost totally eroded shareholder confidence and market trust!
Any restoration of market trust will e dependant upon actual proof, rather than just future predictions as in the past!
Reducing AISC , but more importantly CAPEX for the waste clearance should help boost profits which if sustained should help restore market confidence in that unlike the old management the new management are truthful and know how to run a mine properly!
Hoc is a cherry picked one- look at SRB, FRES and so on, and they've been poor performers too!
And do my eyes deceive me? It's a rise today! 86.65 close :-).
Tibbs and Tornado, the cey v hoc share price does reflect their relative performance.. Historically Hoc share price has been considerably higher than Cey, but over the last three years crashed below on even worse news than the Cey mine wall - a hard left government and potential withdrawal of their mining licence. This last year it has only recovered a bit for the shares to level peg. On capitalisation Cey is now worth nearly 2 ½ times Hoc. Before their respective tumbles Hoc was only ⅓rd less than Cey. It plunged to 2/3rds less, on political problems, so yes but all it has done in the last year is make a bit of a recovery as these have been solved but comparatively has done far worse than Cey over the last few years. Over 5 years Hoc is down 40% while Cey is slightly up. Last year’s performance figures are thus a bit of an aberration, as just as said making up a small bit of lost ground. Going forward, Hoc’s main mine Inmaculada has lower costs than Sukari and makes good profits, especially now it has permission again. Their still low valuation now is because Pallancata mine is closing and their new Mara Rosa mine , that comes on stream next year, is costing hundreds of millions to develop. They have had to borrow at the worst of times. Cey is the better company hence the far higher valuation, however imho Hoc is the better bet over the next two years as it should get back to near Cey production levels at lower cost, once Mara Rosa is on stream, but valued at a third of the price. I bought more when the permit news came through (All numbers approx)