Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
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The glaring lie in today's revised LOM being:
Optimised open pit
· Redesign: Improved geological and geotechnical understanding of the orebody, alongside improved ground conditions following the incorporation of paste fill has resulted in a re-optimised open pit design.
· Reduced strip ratio as a component of the redesign: Optimisation of the open pit wall angles alongside an increase in ore tonnes has resulted in a reduced strip ratio of 6.5x
----------------------->>>
Yes, reduced from the ridiculous one-time Capital Drilling waste stripping contract of >10x
but more importantly it represents an INCREASED from the previous LOM ratio of 5.3 to 1
Mr Horgan has proved time and time again he's a fraud - spinning the latest figures as improvements when in fact it's not
I don't know who posted it a few weeks ago about a Sukari plant disruption causing missed Q3 production target - but we all poo pooed him as ill-informed - I even think Tibbs might have checked with shareholder relations (correct me if I'm wrong Tibbs!) so it turns out he was right !
Whether or not Q4 makes up the missed ounces is really irrelevant - the most important fact to come out of this update is CEO Horgan cannot be trusted - he doesn't know what truth is
Hi Cowichan, the point about difference between LOM plans is interesting. What in your opinion are the main (in summary) differences between the old and new LOM plans. I will listen to the CEY briefing and try and do some reading but your informed view and opinion would be much appreciated.
Hi Somnamna,
I just finished watching the presentation replay and a few things stuck out - regarding the waste stripping ratio, too little detail was given regarding how the Capital waste removal project dovetailed into what now remains a permanently elevated strip rate. Surely the assumption was getting a whack of let's call 'pre-stripping' done let's say 'more efficiently' by a dedicated contractor team was going to improve on the previous LOM rate - but nope - it went up and they pretend it went down. Fibbers.
Next, the decision has apparently been made to hook up to Egypt's power grid. The benefits are touted as reduced carbon emissions and cost improvements. Except it doesn't accomplish the first, as 90% of Egypt's electricity production comes from burning fossil fuels, mostly oil, some gas and 11% solar/wind. Out of sight out of mind doesn't help the environment - just optics on site. And second, the is no guarantee electricity rates won't rise - currently Egypt subsidizes the cost of producing electricity for consumers/industry but we know how subsidies were removed from diesel fuel in the past. Also, the danger of relying on the national power grid over self-generation isn't worth the risks - power outages are a real problem to avoid at the processing level
Next, AISC aren't budgeted to come down below $ 1000 until 2028ish - anything can happen to those pie-in-the-sky projections. So why pretend that you've achieved something in the way of cost reductions until they actually occur? Dumb.
And then there's the high grade Bast zone not being able to be processed until 2025 onward - what was the holdup on the gravity circuit? They first talked about its 'close proximity' to the underground stopes in 2020. 5 years later it might get incorporated? Sheesh.
All in all I don't see a catalyst to get excited about unless the new concessions hit some great prospects - even then the timeline goes out so long to production - hard to justify a buy
I suppose Mr Horgan feels whatever he says today won't be scrutinized in the future so speculate away - only thing is the under promise over deliver days at Centamin have turned into under promise and underdeliver - but that's only my take - i'd like to hear an alternate view by current shareholders - please convince me I'm way off the mark
Hi Cowichan,
I agree with all of your points, 2028 yet again 5 years down the line, good times coming, but we have to be patient, life of mine indeed, one cant help but wonder if Sukari will be mined out before the good times are ever achieved!
Investor relations fail to even acknowledge your questions time and time again, let alone answer them and I have had the same experience, to be fair though the presentations are now more polished through the LSE but that said they are also stage managed and very thin on any real substance!
what was the hold up in the gravity circuit, who knows its impossible to get a straight answer from the company!
And some positivity, up she goes :-).
Why the jump on SP? gold price? or company performance?
Try to look on the bright side Mr T-------at least they identified a problem with one of the machines and fixed it this time. The last lot would have run it into the ground and not have the spares in place for when it finally broke. We all know unexpected things can happen and it looks like they dealt with it pretty well this time round.
Even though they have said Q3 figures will be down but full year guidance remains the same, I think we will take a bit of a hit when it comes out with the Q3 update next week.
Some people on here seem overly critical of Martin Horgan and his "steady as she goes" style. BUT, look at these things Mr T and try to be positive. (1) Assuming we do meet the lower end of the predicted ounces mined for the year, then at least we have met a target . (2) He seemed on the ball with getting that machinery repaired . (3) He hedged some of the gold at $1900. That could be a good call or a bad call, depending on the price of gold at the time, but I think securing that price was a decent move. I think he is trying to "build an innings" and if he keeps nurdling ones and twos to keep the scoreboard ticking over, then that is good. That said, I'd love to see the cover drive or the lofted drive for 6.
The only right direction is north
Cowichan
I am here, and now after Q3 results and missing target numbers ? Isn't that what I mentioned before and I was ridiculed and taunted ? I preferred not to respond at that time waiting Q3 results although I was sure of the source of my information.
and for the answer for your question ..there is another Lie by the end of year to trying to achieve the year target numbers.
M Henderson,
Its always easy to claim prior knowledge of an impending event post event , but I did take it seriously even though the you provided no evidence or source of the information.
In defence of Centamin they are to great extent limited by FCA regulations regarding what can be released into the public domain and so possibly they decided as the situation was already being dealt with as a matter of course there wasn't any justification for an RNS which could have influenced the market.
Just to clarify .after your claim I contacted The Head of Centamin Investor Relations, see their reply below -RE: Clarification announcement about the news circulating regarding the stopping production in Sukari for more than 10 days ?
From Centamin
We are not aware of the news you are referring to.
We had a substantial plant maintenance programme scheduled in Q1 this year, which was successfully completed as planned: https://tools.eurolandir.com/tools/Pressreleases/GetPressRelease/?ID=4275992&lang=en-GB&companycode=au-cey&v=.
For clarification, the Sukari paste-fill plant commenced commissioning in Q2, not the gravity circuit. The Sukari gravity circuit is in the design phase with a construction decision expected by the end of this year: https://tools.eurolandir.com/tools/Pressreleases/GetPressRelease/?ID=4357244&lang=en-GB&companycode=au-cey&v=.
Head of Centamin Investor Relations
So M Henderson with these facts in mind if you are still suggesting that there is some impending unannounced but detrimental news that Centamin aren't disclosing then may I suggest that rather than spreading unsubstantiated rumours on internet forums that you contact Centamin for an explanation and if you feel that their response is insufficient then to refer your claims to the FCA.
In the meantime I will inform Centamin Investor Relations that you may be in contact with them.
The reason the LOM Strip ratio was 5.3:1 was that it was wrong because it didn't achieve the necessary waste removal to optimise ongoing annual production. 6.5:1 isn't great but a hell of a lot better than the last 18/24 months.
Is this going to be achieved only time will tell but right now I don't have any information that tells me different.
One slightly good thing is that we are being told that they will achieve the bottom end of the forecast, can they make up quarter 3 shortfall ? My opinion for what it is worth is that it will be a close run thing albeit a good point is that they will have had a sizeable stock pile of ore on the ROM which will give them a kick start to the 4th Quarter.
What I take from the presentation is some positivity of getting back to a mine working as a mine should work not a mine that is in the process of back to basics to understand the ore body and writing up a plan to go mining, which is what we have been experiencing over the last couple of years or since Horgan came on board.
Now the proof really will be in the eating and we will see how good the newish team are and next year will be crunch time and rather than accuse the board of lies we will unfortunately still need to wait for proof by way of results against their new plans.
Astro999, take a look at the current Gold price $1905, that will be the reason for the SP rise.
Well said DASUT
Hi Dasut,
After what seemed to be in some respects a rather disappointing update, especially for those of us who don't have your knowledge of Sukari, or your professional knowledge of mining methods for your thoughts on how things seem to be shaping up!
Not brilliant by any means, but as you say better than it was three years ago, so I suppose we have tp hope things getter better from now on!
Tibbs
I’m still struggling to see where Horgan has lied. Cowchain, with the help of Henderson and their spokesperson, Tiddles, continue, trying to create a picture of impending doom.. shameful antics by all three.
Hi Cowichan,
We dot know and will never know everything about what goes on inside Centamin ,but Martin Horgan comes across as having integrity and he is highly respected in the industry.
It frustrating to say the least how long its taking to sort out so many issues Sukari ,although it must be a pretty daunting task to know what to sort out first and no doubt Martin Horgan is being careful not to announcing anything that may cause any further loss of confidence in Centamin.
Jeffa- I play it as it is- I agree no one has any idea on what goes on the inside, it's just endless speculation which is fine for a bulletin board- but as always, to be taken with the largest pinch of salt.
Economics and RNS are the only things that matter :-).
Fab day here- good weekend all.
88.05 closing - FAB!
“Economics and RNS are the only things that matter.”
Bang on Steve. Have a good weekend.
Steve ,
As you point out the RNS does influence the directional movement of the share price, but the RNS announcement is just a mandatory market requirement , it is the detail behind reason for the RNS which is of paramount importance,especially so for long term holders.
Of course I mean the content of the RNS- lies are not permitted.
HI Tibbs,Razoe Cowichan , Dasut and respected others not forgetting Siko
I am still lurking here and enjoying the profound and very intelligent and concise posts of the contributors. I could not resist however Tibbs applauding your post re Horgan and sorting out the crock of s##t he was handed by his predecessors. However slightly in their favour I would say that the fledgling Egyptian mining industry rested on Cey shoulders and max profits and return to to the Egyptian Govt coffers was essential bearing in mind the Court case sitting on CEY shoulders at that time. Much backsheesh and palm greasing was needed .
Global economics now going to hell in a hand basket , USA heading for stagflation at best China facing meltdown in Real Estate and industrial output to the West, Russia (although a minor force in global economics terms but massive in visibility and influence with the BRICS) probably in default of debt come Spring Summer next year.
Silver ever the poor mans hedge but Gold for those with the available funds to back into.
Rambling views of an old f''t. Happy with 50 odd thousand at average 1.18 .Look forward to divi announcement for next year, Very rarely trade these days (too old and slow ) but reinvested divi at 84 and 79 respectively. Wow one of the very right decisions . Dont make many of those
Kindest regards to all here and remember , you can buy a yacht and a Ferrari but not a family.
Bob
Hi Bobliz,
Good to know that you are still popping in for a look and especially as a long term holder to take part in the ongoing debate.
Your right of course about the initial challenges to getting the Sukari mine established, its still not that easy even now after the recently reformed Egyptian mining code trying to run a mining business in Egypt whilst at the same time having to cope with all the governmental departmental and judicial bureaucracy, not to mention the power struggles and corruption going on behind the scenes.
But all that seems rather less significant now when compared to the environmental changes our planet is experiencing, and yet if that were not enough there are those world leaders who rather than working together to create solutions to the environmental challenges with the breakdown of society and the worlds no longer fit for purpose monetary and market systems choose instead to compound the global destruction by waging war on one another!
Its depressing to say the least.
Keep well
Tibbs
Thankyou for your kind comments, much appreciated. Rereading my post I hope nobody took my explanation as defending the appallingly bad governance of Horgans predecessors at Centamin . My concern currently is that unless Centamin shout loud and ckear as to how the waste strip has progressed or progressing with the share price in the current doldrums with future AISC costs falling it would be an ideal time for a oredator to make an unsolicited bid before the market took on the better news on both counts. Lets hope not but not holding my breath.
Bob
Hi Bob, I think most forum members , certainly long term holders will understand exactly your comments.
Kind Regards
Tibbs