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From what i can see, re Technical analysis ,(of which i am not an expert), Elliott wave wise.i can see a weak 5 wave rise since the low at circa 101 p,and are now in a small corrective wave.But at the moment it looks very weak,as if we may well retest the low,but not go any lower.Any help out there as to Elliott wave at the moment.Have i got it right ?.
What could save us obviously is a rise in the gold price.The question still needs to be answered as to really why S.P. is so low since the high of 234p.Many theories have been put forward by your good selves.But what is REALLY going on here.
I guess we will find out some time in the future ?.
See what happens @ 108p I guess.
Centamin is trying to close gaps in the chart. The big one closes at 109.6p. A small gap exists lower down and it is possible for that to close if Centamin plays out a 101p double bottom. The double bottom would need gold to retrace to around $1800 per ounce and form a June low price which gold physical traders need heading into India monsoon season etc. July would be a slow recovery and then we get a good H2 summer gold rally and Centamin has a high of near 132p for 2021. It then goes down hill after that until December and we see a big rally in 2022 when more gold is produced and Centamin demonstrates new Sukari underground mine reserves and resources.
The opposite scenario is rally to August in gold and gold miners and then a wash and repeat of what happened in 2020 on gold. I think it will rhyme Oct-Dec. and not be the same and hence why we have a dip in June and to a degree into July.
Its not Centamin specific, seems most PM miners down for example Poly, Fres, Hoc all been in a downward trend last few days.
Must be something market wide / technical like a gama flip into bonds or something like that.
Unless they all know Gold is about to tank which I don't think it is CFTC long numbers are high and inflation is due to be huge going forward.
Cryptos are looking a bit dangerous too.
INDIA RAISES LOCAL RICE PURCHASE PRICE – MINISTER
There's a lot of this sorta stuff going on right now - inflation contagion .........
Two years to run at least IMO.
Dropped a chart - we ready?
https://twitter.com/bonker_99/status/1402562935692668931?s=20
bonker99,
You're doing charts now as well then, Ok will take a look. Cheers
I've been known to fling a few out, yes :)
GL
Tornado Tony your one clever man :) your prediction of gap filling was spot on ;)
I just dropped the Monthly Gold chart showing THAT massive +$600 Bull Flag breakout targeting c$2,500 - backtest already complete as shown:
https://twitter.com/bonker_99/status/1402574829673459713?s=20
Britishbull say stay short, don't know how reliable they are?
https://www.britishbulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=CEY.L
BB Not great IMO, but probably best backed up by their 12 months tab showing they’ve managed to turn every £100 into £86 on a significant number of trades. LOL
They work on daily candlesticks only so, yes, they'll flip to "go long" *after* this has planted an engulfing +10% day candle :)
U.S. 30-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO 2.1483%, LOWEST SINCE MARCH 1
Yields cratering: 10-year 1.47%
The US is having another REPO crisis - like the one in the summer of 2019. I can't find any reports in the MSM at the moment - what a surprise. It looks like the FED is intervening heavily to make the bond yields fall. Inflation report tomorrow in US - really nice accurate figures, I'll bet. No one knows where (or when) it will all end. At least holding some gold coins or bars will mean I'll have something left after it all.
I used to be such an optimistic person.
It's mightily quiet on this board tonight, and the football hasn't even started yet - or has it?
Anyway, I am quite an optimistic thing on the whole, despite having to recite the following poem to my class in my formative years - at least Britain is a better place for most people today than for many during the time of Charles Kingsley.
The Three Fishers:
Three fishers went sailing out into the West,
Out into the West as the sun went down;
Each thought on the woman who lov’d him the best;
And the children stood watching them out of the town;
For men must work, and women must weep,
And there's little to earn, and many to keep,
Though the harbour bar be moaning.
Three wives sat up in the light-house tower,
And they trimm’d the lamps as the sun went down;
They look’d at the squall, and they look’d at the shower,
And the night wrack came rolling up ragged and brown!
But men must work, and women must weep,
Though storms be sudden, and waters deep,
And the harbour bar be moaning.
Three corpses lay out on the shining sands
In the morning gleam as the tide went down,
And the women are weeping and wringing their hands
For those who will never come back to the town;
For men must work, and women must weep,
And the sooner it's over, the sooner to sleep—
And good-by to the bar and its moaning.
Thanks Aoife.
People of today have no idea of the much glamourized past.
The mines inland were no different.
Though not talked of much.
Well here we go. We have the new order, and this time it will be different. Great stuff on the International Tax set up, but of course the City of London wants exemption (sorry, this part of course is no different to the last 30 plus years!!! they are such fine upstanding and deserving peope).
Given the lags between the Fed policy and outcomes, this guarantees overshooting (!). By the time the economy finally reaches the point when the Fed starts to tighten, it will be smoking hot (at “maximum employment”) and, inevitably, getting hotter, probably blowing out steam?
That is what happened in the 1970s. In that case, the necessary disinflation was postponed until Paul Volcker took over in 1979. The experience was brutal, lives were changed, many for the worst. As a senior Federal Reserve official from 1975 to 1987, in addition to battling inflation, he sought to limit the easing of financial regulation and warned that the rapid growth of the federal debt threatened the nation’s economic health. (Hmmm....familiar?) He prevailed by delivering shock therapy, driving the economy into a deep recession to persuade Americans to abandon their entrenched expectation that prices would keep rising rapidly. The cost was enormous. Consumers stopped buying homes and cars, millions of workers lost their jobs. Angry homebuilders mailed chunks of two-by-fours to the Fed’s marble headquarters in Washington. But Mr. Volcker managed to wring most inflation from the economy.
His victory inaugurated an era in which the leaders of both political parties (elected) largely deferred to the central (Fed, unelected) bank, allowing technocrats (and unelected bureacrats and idelogues) to chart the course of monetary policy with little political (those elected by democratic processes of a sort) interference...and the world has never been the same since
Given the inevitable lags between tightening and bringing inflation under control, the costs are again likely to be severe. That would not matter to the US alone. Remember: the Volcker shock triggered the Latin American debt crisis as well as a few others.
Yellen tells G7 to keep spending, says inflation will pass
This time, there is much more debt around almost everywhere. A severe monetary tightening would create even more devastation than then.
Getting the world as a whole out of the pandemic crisis is far from a done deal. Much more still needs to be done.
Furthermore, the new approach to monetary policy of the world’s most important central bank risks serious overshooting.
By responding only to outcomes, it is nigh on certain to react too slowly. It is possible this will not matter, because expectations remain well anchored, whatever happens.
I pray this will be case. The alternative does not bear much thinking about.
regards
the gnome
Great poem. The one my father used to recite to us had a verse that stuck in my mind...
"“The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ,
Moves on: nor all thy Piety nor Wit
Shall lure it back to cancel half a Line,
Nor all thy Tears wash out a Word of it.”
? Omar Khayyám
Sorry for getting off topic ...
best
the gnome
US CPI and Inflation figures. Today we are waiting, for those, (Read Kitco World News)
No doubt they will be massaged.
But the Market will follow them, no doubt.
The comments on Kitco sum it all up.
Yes, Mr B, it's amazing how the markets hang on the tiniest pieces of data, even though participants know the quality of that data is suspect. Madness? An economic forecast can only be as good as the data that was used to build the model.
Will Centamin go up, or down, or round and round? I don't know. I've got to the point where I'd buy at the price which I think is fair.
Yes the Market is Trader dominated for commission for the Brokers and quick buck for the Trader.
They know the amateurs will follow but most ,too late.
Hi Mr Gnome,
So the City of London wants an exemption from the the supposed levelling up of the playing field and the rules that everyone else is supposed to follow, what a surprise !
After Brexit the present governments answer to all the other businesses that are complaining is that they should adapt,become more competitive and go out and seek new markets!
So surely the City of London should do the the same and if it is unwilling or just unable to adapt then it should be allowed to go to the wall, just like so many of our other industries and the traders should seek new employment!
Lets face it the City of London produces nothing that is essential to anyone, admitted it shuffles the indices up and down for it's own benefit, but it serves no useful purpose, it is just an self serving and perpetuating over bloated and pampered parasite that the planet would be better off without!
The arrogance and greed tf the City of London has no place in the 21st century, in fact outside of it most of the practices that take place there would be regarded as criminal!