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Sorry to see you going Cowichan.
I actually did the opposite, and got back in Centamin last week after staying out of it for years for financial reasons, and even now I'm not in with a large amount, but it's what I could afford. I don't know how long I'm staying in for as I normally need the money before my trips to Egypt, but I'm in for now.
For me, Centamin "should not" have problems in Egypt anymore, the petroleum minister always uses Centamin as an example in all his talks about mining in Egypt, last week in Saudi Arabia'd conference he said Egypt was working with Centamin to increase production and to finalize licences to expand work around sukari area.
As to the court case, the way the legal system works in Egypt is that once the court suspended a case for a reason, and in our case it was for law 32, and once that reason is clarified, the court does not restart the case by itself, the request has to come from one of the two sides, and of course it will be the side which thinks it will win that would submit the request, and that's why it's Centamin that will apply to restart the case. Alfakharany's side would never ask for the case to restart, that's if they are still around. There is no ifs and buts, and it's not up to the judge, law 32 is crystal clear.
As long as Centamin does not come up with any production surprises, all should be good and improving from here.
Siko
“The petroleum minister always uses Centamin as an example in all his talks about mining in Egypt, last week in Saudi Arabia'd conference he said Egypt was working with Centamin to increase production and to finalize licences to expand work around sukari area…”
Excellent excerpt, cheers Siko.
Thanks Siko
I think the new policy in CEY mngt is to be measured and err on the conservative side, which sits well with me. I think they have probably been very measured and restrained around the Sukhari mine site, whilst there was some legal risk (why would you put excess capital at risk). Now this has been removed then I think we will see a lot of new developments happen, and some of the satellite ore poisitions will be worked and known more.
I think their position in West Africa is solid. The mineralisation is on scale and grade. The fact that it takes a bit longer, is really more a function of thats the way it is in West Africa, and managing risk. I would far rather they build a solid foundation than rush in due tot he whims of some of the "arm chair CEO's" one hears and see's floating around.
Happy to stay invested, there are a lot of gold companies that are on my avoid list at the moment.
best
the gnome
Thanks goldgnome for one of the best comments I have read in a long rime.
Hi MrGnome,
Must say that the market doesn't seem overly impressed with the latest report, but then that to be expected after the way the previous management including some who still sit on the board were happy systematically destroy market trust in anything the company whilst Sukari became ever more unworkable until it nearly imploded !
So with Centamin in the "Last chance saloon" unless it is to disappear down the lavatory it has had to face the realty that it really does ha e to produce ore gold than pie in the sky guidance media boasts!
Do I trust Centamin, well hard to say, but I trust the other gold miners far less !
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/CENTAMIN-PLC-9730915/news/Centamin-Maintained-at-Market-Perform-Following-Q4-Production-Release-Guidance-Price-Target-Lowere-42770399/
C'mon Tibbs it's time to start looking forward rather than back? Fwiw I see centamin as a long term growth share but in the very near term it feels like groundhog day. We're going to see disappointing Q1 production numbers which will accentuate the high AISC just like last year. I've been taking a bit of profit and have sold down half my stake but that still leaves me with a significant lump in for the long haul and if/as the SP drops I intend to build back up again.
Hi 3bear,
I sympathise with you optimism, I once felt like that a long time ago!
I have been trying to look forward for over two decades and that should have been long enough to grow any share, unfortunately what was delivered never compared with what was promised !
Its all too easy to get complacent!
Indeed Tins you were most optimistic and along with the likes of Mizolgit a bit critical when I kept saying ounces are going down costs up, profits will be quitea way down and shares will fall to the 90’s, well it was even worse than I thought. However now that you turn gloomy I have turned optimistic, so much is now going in our favour even if Mr Horgan may be a bit lacklustre which may be no bad thing. Ounces are rising, costs are as under control as any miner with our solar etc, the legal case looks resolved and the get out of jail gold price is rising - $ profits now will be double 2 months ago when gold was $300 below today. In fact I was so pleased with the nothing in particular result and forward guidance that I waited a little for the fall and bought another £10k first thing today to get 114, as I thought the pull back after the results was just a sell on the news. Well expect if I have bought it will tumble tho perhaps by bad luck or chance I proved sadly right for a couple of years on the way down.
Also it is gold price in sterling less aisc in sterling that leads to our profit in sterling and our sterling share price . The gold price in Sterling is just a third of a percent or £5 off it’s all time high today!
I don't understand all the "I'm in and I'm out for months" - history has proved an ace trading share-
go in when the datapoints and markers are there and out again- I would never put a timeframe
around any of it, plus mining is very high risk- a big whack can happen at any time- and so can a big rise.
I am not a trader as it doesn’t suit me, I like to buy a share which gives me a hefty dividend as that is my income, and will keep going. I hate doing the CGT. Gold now just £2 off all time high
Hi Sotolo
You seem to have hit the nail on the head in your post. Look at the history of buy on the rumour , sell on the fact and as I have posted here before that is exactly the way major Institutional players scoop up lower price shares scared out of or scalping minor gains. The factual reality of a Company is paramount.
1) The gold is in the ground. No contest
2) Balance sheet strong No contest
3) AISC Reducing and substantially so after overcoming major expenditure No contest
4) Future prospects amazing (Both Sukari and Africa) No contest
5) No geopolitical adversity (Law 32) Thankyou Siko !!!!
6) Management focussed on long term sucess and not short term gain. No contest.
Yes short term dips and raises but the basics in my opinion are sound Happy to hold . Dividend so far far outweigh the percentage of cash held on an interest account.
Having been very very wrong in the past please do your own research and make your decisions on what you feel is correct
Regards
Bob
Yes Sotolo, but your strategy has lost you loads over the years when i've been following all your posts over the years when you have been posting your hefty losses
I was in the "Last Chance Saloon" the other night, and CEY was not there. But it was packed out, and the beer was good
One of the groups I did see drinking hard were Team USA. It looks like the Ponzi scheme they run, has just leveraged up another record!
Most games of chicken do not have trillion-dollar stakes. But such a spectacle is common in America when Republicans in Congress face off with a Democratic president over the debt ceiling. This legal limit on the amount of debt held by the Treasury is periodically raised (whenever they want and there has been a fair amount of want)—but never by enough to avoid a repeated stalemate. Without a bipartisan political deal to raise the ceiling America would be in uncharted and dangerous territory, bumbling into pointless default (recall they defaulted in 1970, but of course they called it something else!!!. recall in 1971 when the United States unilaterally terminated convertibility of the US dollar to gold, effectively ending the Bretton Woods system..it was a convertability problem of a barbaric relic, LOL
On January 19th Janet Yellen, the treasury secretary, announced that the country had hit its maximum debt (of $31.381trn) and that she had begun taking “extraordinary measures”—accounting tricks such as deferring pension investments to conserve cash. These measures, which have become routine (!!??), buy several months before the calamity actually arrives, called the “X-date”. The last close call, in 2011 when Barack Obama was president and Joe Biden was vice-president, was resolved with only days to spare, spooking stockmarkets and leading one ratings agency to downgrade the federal government’s credit.
Republicans must repudiate their use of the debt ceiling as a negotiating tactic, and congressional Democrats and the Biden administration must abandon their refusal to negotiate. The American people would welcome these steps as a rare sign of common sense from their leaders.
Common Sense is not common these days! Especially in politics, anywhere!
regards
The Gnome
Divi tax high too- (of course no cgt or divi taxes paid in isa / sipp). My nervous disposition never lets me hold large stakes in miners for divis - way too high risk and way lower risk assets and funds to gain stream of income- 1 slip and the SP gets battered, and worse if your mine ends up in a war zone!
Spot on goldgnome ,especially ,your last sentence. :-)
Yes Steve I have just stuck with Centamin. However the near 50% recent rise makes up a chunk of it and 10 years of around 6% dividends have made another chunk. It is a pretty fantastic year in year out income even if reduced
Sotolo --I thought you were in and out of HOC and THS along with Centamin? I seem to remember you saying your Centamin divi was late getting payed and you wanted to put it in THS? (Im sure you were saying that THS were a great company) .
Hoc were up near £3 at one point and THS £1-60? Both are less that Centamin now though. Anyone who reinvested the last Centamin divi, when we were about 84p has done not bad so far (fingers crossed).
When do you think we will be the £3 mark you forecast before the news of the waste came out? Im hoping I'll still be alive by then.
Do any LTH remember when people used the phrase about turning out cash "Like a demented cash machine" ? Im hoping for some higher dividends soon. That might ease the pain of the last few years.
Hopefully they will start to come with a bit more good news. Without setting Mr T off on one. the previous management lost Centamin a lot of trust before Martin Horgan took over. I think he is trying to rebuild that now, with mainly boring "steady as she goes" updates.
Hi Paul,
Hope you are well and still enjoying your garden and the wildlife!
Yes, I am in agreement with you !
Sotolo ,
Didn't you say in the past that your Centamin holding was leveraged or on some form of borrowing?
Hi Mr Gnome,
I hear the Tory Brexiteers are now in the "Last Chance saloon", they really have shafted the UK!
https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,boris-johnson-says-uk-government-was-wrong-to-offer-brexit-without-plan-for-how-leave-vote-would-work_12003.htm
Trump Republicans clearly underperformed, and in Britain, public regret over Brexit—or “Bregret”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/12/britain-brexit-regret-polling-populism/672467/
We have Dominic Cummings to thank for Boris Johnson's original “get Brexit done” campaign that won him the election. However, during an interview with BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg, Cummings admitted that Brexit could have been “a mistake”.
https://www.joe.co.uk/politics/brexit-may-have-been-a-mistake-admits-dominic-cummings-281538
Guy Hands has said that Rishi Sunak must admit that the Brexit campaign was full of lies, if the party wants his support again.
https://leftfootforward.org/2022/11/billionaire-tory-donor-tells-rishi-sunak-to-admit-that-the-public-were-lied-to-over-brexit/
I cannot say that I actually enjoy gardening Mr T and Im not very good or lucky with it. However the apples come in handy but I cannot seem to store them beyond May. The plums have been turned into jam. I need to think about what to try to grow this year and where. For a pretty biggish garden they is not a lot of useful space AND many years ago someone put a load of limestone in to try to help drainage. Each year I try to reclaim a little of it back by digging out the stone and then sifting it and trying to make up the shortage with twigs and compost from the bin. Centamin have my sympathy moving THAT waste.
Very little been going on in the garden. I managed to collect ten wheelborrow loads of leaves to mulch with.
A bit like Centamin ---I keep hoping that this year will be better.
I took blackcurrant cuttings, so in a year, I should have some more of them for the jam. Probably grow less cucucmbers for gherkins this year and one less courgette plant. Turnips and peas will be grown (hopefully) and Tomatoes (had a bit of luck last year) ----and fingers crossed for shallots or onions.
I think Martin Horgan wont give a really good update until he is sure things are going great-------and i think he will underplay anygood news as another knock of trust could really effect the confidence we are slowly gettting back.
Paul ,Demented cash machine or ATM spitting out cash was along with Golden Flip Flop ,parties from Mr T.
Though you probably knew that.
Oh Happy naieve Days , of years ago. :-)
Unfortunately in real life it is made sure the machine is gone.
But that was before the payments to Government ,50 % of free cash flow started,and before Joseph the CEO decided to cash in his considerable amount of Chips.
From memory , E&OE.
Hi Paul,
Still sounds great what you have achieved!
In the meantime you may enjoy this series, the people really have got their priorities right!
https://www.itv.com/watch/martin-clunes-islands-of-the-pacific/2a7772/2a7772a0001
Ben journeys to South America to visit Rhona, a British-born actress who left Hollywood to live alone in a remote valley in Uruguay
https://www.channel5.com/show/ben-fogle-new-lives-in-the-wild/season-17/episode-4
So true Mr Bond, now we know how the cash machine was being funded and the golden flip flops turned out to be just very thin metallised plastic!