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There we go share price down again despite the POG!
Trust or faith in the company seems completely shot!
Is your , ( trust and faith) ,totally shot, Mr Tibbles?
Just asking ,out of curiosity.
Mt Bond,
I can understand there are unexpected occurrences in mining and that there are unforeseeable difficulties and if an honest explanation is given then I was prepared to give the benefit of the doubt.
However what I will not tolerate or forgive is lying or deception!
Has Horgan lied or deceived,Mr Tibbles ?
Please tell us.
What about an answer to your trust and faith as I asked earlier ,that you did not answer.
So sorry to remind you.
As far as I am aware, he has'nt.
I would trust the last regime like a rattle snake at a lucky dip and its worth noting that some of the BOD are still in post who watched the seagulls around Jersey whilst Pardey and Youssef carpetbagged the Sukari mine!
Martin Hogan is no doubt a competent professional and slick presenter, he could sell ice to Eskimo's ,but he is also employed on an excellent remuneration package by the BOD who re trying to keep their heads down and deny a past that they were to a great extent responsible for!
So I remain suspicious and cautious, until I see some quantifiable evidence of what hs been achieved is increased and sustainable produced, reduced AISC, increased share price and the dividend restored to at least its former value!
"Once bitten, twice shy", how many times have Centamin shareholders been bitten on the ar(se in the past!
My previous question to you was, has Horgan lied or deceived.
Your response.
So far as I am aware he hasnt -
Was your answer,just in case others missed it.
Read into it other investors and think .
Good night Mr Tibbles ,and of course everyone.
The real question remains “has Horgan accomplished anything apart from the erosion of capital built up from the operational achievements of previous management” - I will leave it to the board to ponder that conundrum :)
Spoonington, not so far but we live in hope
The good news is the gold discovered by the much maligned previous management remains in place, the capital accumulated by the much maligned previous management (albeit inefficiently eroded) remains in place, all we need is current management to exploit the resource that they have been handed - so far we have got nought!
Mr T, i challenge you to instead of regurgitating mindless fantasies that you look at reality.
Despite mistakes of previous management I cite gold mined profits made, dividends paid &:cash reserves accumulated - facts!
What can you say about demonstrable, factual accomplishments of current management?
Horgan was delivered in football terms a hospital pass. The problems appeared very shortly after he arrived. He was reporting grade shortfalls after 3 months in post and stripping issues having to be addressed within six months. previous folk delivered this as test for him to go and fix. The company has spent two years of profits plus $150M sorting out a mess. The good news is that he has resolved it and now we get to see what he can do after sorting it all out. The last QA session was brilliant and the first of its kind for a long period of time and reveals a CEO and his team more confident. Many investors and traders are just waiting for the current gold pullback to finish which is based on pure fantasy to bottom out and it will deliver imop a significant rebound in CEY stock (note I use the word will). It is a tough month, but a big rally is to follow and Centamin is expected to deliver higher gold outputs from March onwards. Hopefully most of the servicing required is being done right now. The present pull back is creating opportunities for new people to join us in the Centamin story. Tony ( I will be buying in as well)
Hi Tornado and Tibbs
Firstly what a fantastic platform this is for many and diverse views. As I have said before with "skin in the game" the more obtuse and variable thoughts
(well considered and mannered ) that arise should have bearing on whatever decision making process . Firstly Tibbs I would be fascinated to hear what your contacts make of the efforts of Putin to realise the gold assets he sits on . As I understand it no exchange in the current world trading platforms will credit without physical transfer guaranteed gold value from Russia. The only stable platform who may be so willing is China but then an embargo on their reserves woud be of massive liability to their current dire economic woes. I would suggest they need to maintain contact with a market within which they can realise or use as a backed world wide asset.
I really look forward to your further considered views as could have a very large influence on future gold price.
Tornado
I fully concur with your thought process. As I have said before Hogan is not in this for buying another 50 metre yacht but as his history and CV shouts ego , ego ego, promoted by success and there is nothing wrong in that in my opinion.
Whenever a new CEO is brought in to a less than adequately performing Company (and the major Institutions would ensure the old guard fell on their sword and the new incumbent would be out of the top drawer, believe me) his first mission is to emphasise the terrible mess we has to clear up. Probably worse than actuality. A 2 year mission statement. That time is up and the major players know this. I think a progression of good news will now follow . If not I am wrong again . Success is 51% right and 49% wrong.
Have fun chaps Still holding and well above water with every thing in a ISA and do the maths over 10 years of divis. SP is only of value when crystallised.
Kindest regards to all
Bob
Spoonington,
You should know about regurgitation you have done enough of that concerning how grateful we should all be to the she last bunch of carpetbaggers!
The last management last management were running a "Pyramid" scheme where they were able to cream of all the best grades for short term gain for the own advantage, unfortunately they did this by using inappropriate mining practice until the mine was rendered nearly unworkale by several years of uncleared waste ($467m to clear up)and the company lost half its value and complete credibility with the market!
This is how things were Spoonington under the last management!
Nov. 19, 2015 5:00 AM ET
The positive factors supporting the historical performance will soon come to an end.
Management's 5-year plan sacrifices long-term future.
Open-pit reserves need a much better gold price to be economical.
Executive Summary
This valuation is based on a cash flow model which uses the latest 5-year production plan of Centamin (LSE: CEY) (OTCPK:CELTF), combined with the long-term schedule in the 2015 feasibility study, to deplete the reserves of material destined to be treated in the Carbon-in-Leach (CIL) plant of the Sukari mine at a rate of approximately 11 million tonnes per annum. Using the gold price as per 17 November 2015 of US$1,070/oz, a net present value at a discount rate of 5% of minus US$89.2 million was arrived at, far more than the Enterprise Value of US$881.9 million for Centamin on that day.
The review of the technical and financial information comes to the following general conclusions:
• Centamin's value is essentially determined by its 50% interest in the Sukari operation.
• The mine is cash-generative even at the current gold price, allowing for return of funds to shareholders as dividends and share buy-backs as capital expenditure has dropped considerably.
• The good cash performance is due to a combination of underground production with very good margins, open-pit mining at low stripping ratios, income tax exemption and profit sharing deferred until investments having been recovered and the mine coming into operation when the gold price was at US$1,000/oz rising to above US$1,600/oz for the period mid-2011 until end-2012.
• The historical performance is as good as it gets as all the positive factors mentioned in the previous bullet point come to an end within the next few years.
• Management has put a gloss over this in their latest 5-year production plan, artificially holding down the strip ratio and assuming continuation of underground mining at a very high level, without having the mineral reserves to sustain this.
• Should this 5-year plan be implemented, the life of the operation will be curtailed to only these five years, unless there is a major increase in the gold price.
• The table below illustrates that open-pit ore is uneconomical at current mined grade at the required strip ratio and a price of US$1,200/oz. The current good financial performance of Sukari can almost fully be attributed to underground mining.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/3695246-centamin-get-going-good
From 2015 then updated in 2018 , still Pardey & Co were denying anything was wrong and they carried on with the high grading!
Management has put a gloss over this in their latest 5-year production plan, artificially holding down the strip ratio and assuming continuation of underground mining at a very high level, without having the mineral reserves to sustain this.
Should this 5-year plan be implemented, the life of the operation will be curtailed to only these five years, unless there is a major increase in the gold price.
The table below illustrates that open-pit ore is uneconomical at current mined grade at the required strip ratio and a price of US$1,200/oz. The current good financial performance of Sukari can almost fully be attributed to underground mining.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/3695246-centamin-get-out-while-going-is-good
Updated 2018 The financial performance of Centamin is highly leveraged to the gold price
with NPV5 changing by 5.5% for every percentage point change in the gold price.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4229201-kees-dekker-reviews-centamin-plc-analysis
https://seekingalpha.com/author/kees-dekker#regular_articles
So we can attribute this mess, which is as Bob eluded to worse than admitted to the previous management!
Ideally, your overall portfolio should beat the market average. But in any portfolio, there will be mixed results between individual stocks. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in Centamin plc (LON:CEY), since the last five years saw the share price fall 37%. Unfortunately the share price momentum is still quite negative, with prices down 16% in thirty days.
Since Centamin has shed UK£44m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics.
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/lse-cey/centamin-shares/news/02-earnings-growth-over-5-years-has-not-materialized-into-ga-8
Risk Checks
We perform automated risk checks on every company. We flag any failed checks as potential investment risks. A company which passes all our checks, however, is not 'risk free'.
Centamin (CEY) Risk Checks
Fail Are revenue and earnings forecast to grow?
Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 16.7% per year for the next 3 years
Section 2.1
Fail Is their dividend sustainable?
Dividend of 6.18% is not well covered
Instead on ranting on with meaningless rubbish why not look at actual results in terms of gold mined, dividends paid & cash reserves accumulated?
Compare & contrast current & previous management on that basis removing any bias resulting from an “I want a scapegoat for my own stupidity” mentality.
If you are capable of doing the above you may be able to ascertain a more informed analysis of the state of affairs :)
Hi Spoonington,
Too much salt on your cornflakes this morning?
If only it were meaningless rubbish, unfortunately its several years worth of uncleared spoil that has severely restricted access and hobbled production until it is cleared away!
You imply that shareholders that believed what they were told by the previous management were "Stupid", whereas in reality it was a case of intentional continued sharp practice and the withholding of the truth regarding the state of the Sukari operation.
I have provided informed and truthful analysis, you have provided copious amounts of vitriol !
Re Simply Wall Street rating -
See the opinion of a well respected mining analyst on this article which should give shareholders some reassurance that Martin Horgan is getting things on track!
Clearly written by a financial man without any indications of having technical expertise. His emphasis on earnings and the surprise about a dropping share price whereas there was earnings growth tells me enough. Of course the price dropped. They had a pit wall collapse that needed a lot of capex to fix. “Earnings” were not affected, but cash flow badly. I suspect with his focus on earnings, he will also not have taken into account that capex will go down from now onwards and net free cash flow up.
For me it was copious amounts of profit, I care not a jot for those who did not participate :)
Spoonington,
"For me it was a copious amount of profit" well done with what you've done but I don't think there's many people on here care a"jot"what your made, everyone is interested in there own decisions and most don't get pleasure or brag about there own good fortune here, it doesn't really impress anyone.
Either view could be right so just nice to respect each other. On the one hand Pardy et al presided over a high divi and partly hence high share price policy. And Horgan 3 years in is still presiding over lower dividends that look like falling further, and. 3 years is quite a long time. On the other maybe Pardy et al’s policy led to the wall fall which has made Horgans job hard. However after the wall Horgan did say it would be a couple of tough years. Now we have had three. So really this year is the crucial year to see if he is better than the last lot or worse imho so either side might be proved right. My feeling is Spoonington’s view is slightly likelier and he won’t make good, (I think he wasn’t boasting about his prowess but the money we could make under Pardy) but then many here think Horgan has just had a bad set of cards and even three years on we should be prepared to give him longer. So as said either might be right so let’s try to respect and understand each other just as with the other big issues of the day from Brexit to woke, there is far too much vitriol censorship and intolerance of others’ views for it to spill here. And all of us know whatever we think of Centamin future we may be quite wrong. Have a lovely day, fab weather for those not expat.
As a general rule, shallow mining has higher margins than deeper (esp for open pits) mining, irrespective of the stupidity of the CEO or mine manager. Simply the strip ratio increases, which means you move more waste to mine than ore, and travel distance you have to drive your trucks increases with vertical depth. So unless grade increases you will have to pay more to get the same return.
If you are not vigilant on pit walls, there is a problem as you go deeper, as you have more vertical meters of walls. The tendency for the greedy and incompetent mine managers and CEOs is to try and increase the angle of the pit walls (move less dirt). Problem is that when you have not done proper geotech, and looked for subvertical structures properly, [rather relied on sub vertical holes to define subvertical fault planes]...then you are exposed... and your profound greed and stupidity is about to be exposed...., and when the wall decides to fall in, it falls in and nothing will stop it. Greed and stupidity exposed, as is suggested by recent history.
Then when the CEO who managed this fiasco has to be replaced (some survive !!!), the new CEO has not only to remove the excess that has fallen in from the last CEO, but has to cope with the high strip ratio, and has probably realised the idiot before him just made everything too steep for stability and sustainability. So rather than maintain the unsustainable pit angle, he has to "stand back", which means more dirt has again to be moved because of the greed of the last CEO, and hence margins further impacted.
Just basic science and engineering, and a good spreadsheet to do the calcs.
I think the Horgan is doing a solid job, underpromising (which always gets the wind bag anaylysts pi$sed off, who get paid on % of selling/buying of shares) and delivering firm but good results. He is positioning the mine in a good operational space, and has a lot of optionality being built into the operation, which is boring to the analysts, but very good management.
So CEY doing well.
The gold price is amazing, as there is no rationality in its behaviour at all in my view. Its monetary value defies logic, as money has been motonically decreasing in purchasing power for decades, and this is what it is designed to do? On the other side the supply of gold is not sustainable, and exploration has not been providing a replacement capacity.
The market is not fair, transparent and unmanipulated obviously.
goodnight all, don't watch the cricket in India please.
and good luck ...
the Gnome