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Comes in at 235k vs 750k consensus oops!
Yep- good for gold, let's hope all the post news analysis doesn't dampen
$2000 gold by Xmas now just need cey to step up to the plate!
The day is not over.
Next someone will dump a skip full of paper futures on the market.
Whilst that pushes prices down it is only temporary it will not change sentiment of the many.
Will it ?
The dumping of paper futures and the shorting of gold will reduce over time as the BASEL III regulations come into effect - to the best of my knowledge - the regulations are already taking force in Europe - the UK has dispensation into early 2022 - but the regulations will also be applied in the UK - the shorting of gold and its price voliatility should tail off as we go towards the end of the year - we will clearly see some high volatility between now and then.
Now probably is the best time to but Centamin shares - as the price of gold increases so will the price of this share - keeping one's nerve is the best advice that can be offered at this moment.
@Autonomy1
Yes you are right - but the exemption the UK has is time limited - it ends in early 2022 - as I said in my response to MrBond46's - the dispensation the UK has ends in early 2022.
The way i read it is they apply for an exemption from January,i cant find anything on
how long it lasts
LBMA have a lot of leverage.
You will be amazed who they can influence ,same in the States, a different ball game.
Anyway how do they expect to enforce Basil faulty 111, with some pitifully small fine ,as of now.
Be interesting to see how this plays out.
Don't expect miracles. Like fair trading.
@ 18:38 - I go along with those sentiments.
And my dismay at another 5% SP fall merely lasted a day.
Should be a decent week ahead.
THE BASEL 3 CARVE OUT IS JUST MORE EVIDENCE OF HOW CONTRIVED AND CONFLICTED CERTAIN MARKETS ARE. JUST WHO BENEFITS, AND IT IS FAIR, AND IS IT WHAT WE SHOULD BE AIMING FOR?
The upcoming rules... net stable funding ratio (NSFR),.. are part of Basel III regulations designed to make banks more stable and prevent a repeat of the financial crisis of 2008-09. VERY WORTHY GOAL!
The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) lobbied against them, saying they are unnecessary and could force some banks – including clearing banks - to stop trading (SO WHAT? THE POINT IS THE STABILITY OF THE BANKS AND BANKING SYSTEM AND NOT WHETHER SOME BANKS STOP TRADING GOLD IN A MANNER INCONSISTENT WITH ACHIEVING THE WORTHY GOAL).
Following EXTREME LOBBYING, the Bank of England's Prudential Regulatory Authority (PRA) said on Friday it had "decided to amend its approach to precious metal holdings related to deposit-taking and clearing activities."
It said it had introduced an "interdependent precious metals permission" which would reduce the size of the required capital buffer, AND DEFEAT THE PURPOSE OF THE NEW RULES, AND COMPROMISE THE WORTHY CAUSE, ADD COMPLEXITY AND ADMINISTRATION
"This is one of the key points that what we've been asking for all these years," said Sakhila Mirza, the LBMA's chief counsel. "Clearing will be exempt." AND WHY, WHO BENEFITS AND WHY INTRODUCE CARVE OUTS AND COMPLEXITY
The PRA said it would not classify gold as a high-quality liquid asset (ONE PONDERS THE DEFINITION OF HIGH QUAITY LIQUID ASSET?), which would have freed other trades such as precious metals loans and leases from the high capital requirement.
The LBMA says gold is liquid enough not to need an additional liquidity buffer for clearing and settlement and short-term transactions. (ALL MANNER OF DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY LIQUID AS WELL, UNTIL TRUST LEAVES THE ROOM?)
A spokesperson for UBS said: "UBS welcomes the PRA's decision, which supports stability in bullion cleaning and avoids disruption to the London market." SUPPORTS THE STATUS QUO AND COMPROMISES AN EFFICIENT MARKET WHICH CAN FUNCTION WITH A MINUIMUM OF ADMINISTRATION AND MAXIMUM OF TRANSPARENCY?
BUT the exemption to "Basel 3" regulations offered last week to London bullion banks by the Bank of England's Prudential Regulatory Authority will not cover the "unallocated" gold the banks hold. The exemption is "short-term window dressing" that will give the London bullion banks a few more months to reduce their gold derivatives business. Macguire says, will push the gold price up.
Maguire adds that more transparency is being demanded of the banks by the PRA.
Russia and China are using gold to attack U.S. dollar hegemony and encouraging smaller countries to join them, Maguire says, and the Bank for International Settlements recognizes that gold is the only weapon that can displace the dollar. He expects the United States eventually to cooperate with a revaluation of gold that diminishes the dollar'
Absolutely agree Mr Gnome,totally corrupt City running the UK financial markets, unfortunately under the present government there is only hope for the rich and the selfish and the ordinary people can pick up the tab!
The City is the City. It is run by the City for the City, and everyone else can go for a (long) run. They are hanging onto power as best they can, but in the mean time looking the contrived, self serving, elitists that they have been for a century or 2.
One can see their signs everywhere: "At an anti-corruption summit in London, the former British prime minister (CAMERON) sat alongside Nigeria’s president (!!!) and other dignitaries and declared that money laundering was “the cancer at the heart of so many problems we need to tackle in our world”. ..NEWS? ... AND THEN WHAT HAPPENED ...
“Kleptopia: How Dirty Money Is Conquering the World”, by Tom Burgis is a great read ...
The year that Lehman Brothers collapsed, just half of Britain’s commercial properties were registered to a named person. The houses on a North London road known as “Billionaires’ Row” belonged to oligarchs and a front company for former Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev (ANOTHER MAN OF IMMENSE INTEREST)
“Kleptopia” shows the at-times violent origins of the questionable cash behind the property splurges. In 2011, oil workers in Kazakhstan went on strike when they realised their employers were only paying them half what they declared to the country’s treasury. Police used live ammunition on the protesters, while others suffered torture. The international outrage raised uncomfortable (NOT SURE FOR WHO) questions for Kazakhstan’s then leader, Nazarbayev. To smooth things over before an upcoming trip to Cambridge University, former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair (NOW THERE IS A MAN OF SUBSTANCE) offered him tips on how to downplay the incident. (HOW PREDICTABLE?)
The City of London’s role in facilitating corporate crime could prove the capital’s undoing...
Solutions are easy.
Dismantle the City (send it to the Bahamas) , and put it on the same legal footings as the rest of London and the world. Make the markets unhindered, transparent with a clear set of rules that apply to all, 24/7. Make it accountable, supersize penalties and include lengthy jail terms in Kazakstan.
Must back to the football finals, before I get locked down, or up,
best
the Gnome
I would agree Gnome.
But the power structure in Governments left and right wing will do their utmost to resist changing the Status Quo, for selfish reasons so the system will not change ,including families and friends deep within the City.
Short of a French style revolution I unfortunately see little change .
Britain is a small fish in a big sea as regards PM's B3 will and is fundamentally changing the landscape where physical matters, demand for PM's is gaining momentum. Argue all you want but the numbers speak for themselves and it will play out in the coming months.
A good rise in the price just when production starts to ramp up would be very nice.
I get the feeling the gold is going to have a decent run now and for several years, and I am with you MrBond, it looks like CEY production will ramp up very nicely with the Gold Price, and with no forward sales (etc) this is going to be very good for CEY.
2021 margin on sales-AISC of approx us$750/oz should see some healthy cash flows, and 2024 targeting 475,000 ounces at <$950 an ounce AISC, is going to do even better if the gold price runs north of $2000/ozs.
The Central Bankers and politicians seem attracted to reliving the 1970's (Robert Gordon’s magisterial account of The Rise and Fall of American Growth is a great read - he challenges the view that economic growth will continue unabated, and demonstrates that the life-altering scale of innovations between 1870 and 1970 cannot be repeated...contends that the nation’s productivity growth will be further held back by the headwinds of rising inequality, stagnating education, an aging population, and the rising debt of college students and the federal government, and that we must find new solutions...and now we have the pandemic! ), which was a turning point in US economic history, thanks to a sharp slowdown in meaningful (!) economic innovation.
A larger body of more recent work now finds that productivity growth has been slowing in the 21st century, and a very large proportion of the workers have found no growth in wages and salaries, and now the pandemic and the "government management" looks to be inflicting another heavy blow. Housing prices are rising at an anual rate in some cities in Oz at up to 80% in the last 12 months, and one does wonder how this is going tobe paid when there is not even a wiff of productivity increase, but there are some whiffs of interest rates rises. With the equities, its hard to lose money (in fact the only way to lose money today is to have cash in the bank..or bonds) the ASX top 20 has risen 25% in 12 months, ASX 100 up 25% ASX 300 up 25%, and there must be a few who would be nervous about this position.
In the US in recent years, first the Trump tax cuts, then pandemic-related catastrophe relief, and now progressive plans to expand the social safety net (and health?) have hit the federal budget hard, and now the embarrassment of Afghanistan, fast after the disaters in Iraq, Syria, Libya. Will the US military machine seek to re-establish itself, yet again? Plans to fund these costs by raising taxes only on the rich will likely fall far short, and with no wage growth for the plebs and middle class, (and we won't mention quality jobs) very hard to see how its all going to work?
back to the footy for me
the gnome
Still a great entry point at sub 100p it's probably the best opportunity around just now?
I am beginning to think that the old $1200 has been replaced by the new $1800 - the accumulation level for the next big leg up for the gold price. Hopefully it will not take so long for the big buyers to load up this time. I was very encouraged to see that huge contract dump a few weeks ago was quickly covered and we've got back to 'the range'. A little upside to the gold price on the dollar's fall this last couple of weeks has been OK - I wish it had been more; perhaps there is more to come. It's a bit of a grind.
I am reminded of that report from Fidelity Investments, which I've never read, about how the dead outperform the living when it comes to investing. The dead just can't keep tinkering with their portfolios. It's a bit extreme, dying to become a good investor, but I keep telling myself the long haul is best for me.
It's an old story, but the following link shows that gold for a long-term hold isn't a bad thing; you just need to stay alive.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-39655769
A teacher friend of mine asked her pupils (about 10 year olds) to write a story about why the coins were put in the piano in the first place. Almost all the kids wrote something about the parents splitting up, and one of the parents was hiding their wealth from the other because of the divorce settlement.
How sad!
In reality, I think the piano coins were hidden because of WW2. The government restricted gold ownership to 3 sovereigns (I think) and that law was not rescinded until 1968 (I think). Will history repeat?
Take care.
Thats delightful Red!
I read,that what you are saying, is that the dead are long term investors and the short..well they are short of their senses and other things (no need for details), but you cannot keep a good woman down too long is the short of it?
Will history repeat? Well it has for a few millenia but ... but of course we dont know that for sure(the academics and talking heads must earn their keep)? and besides this time will be different!
So we sail into endless debt, bottomless social security, flat lining productivity, wage stagnation, equality frustration wokeism, lack of trust, government bureaucracy gone mad (der), global conflict (again) and general 24/7 hysteria and anxiety...
and we expect fiat currency which holds up on nothing but trust, to get stronger...well well, well
good luck to all
I know where my money is
best
the gnome
Hi GoldGnome,
I believe there are a few investment accounts, run by investment managers, that are owned by people who have died. These accounts don't get discovered by the probate process and just keep running. It's probably only when the umpteenth yearly account perfomance letter gets sent to the last address given, that the new occupants at that address decide to inform the financial institution that that person doesn't live there any more. I think it's known as inertia. Anyway, when the account is reviewed, it is often found to have done very well because it has been left alone - no short termism. It's then just a case of tracking down the beneficiaries of the will. I bet the solicitors love that.
Will history repeat? I didn't make myself very clear there. Some people think that the government may ban people from holding solid gold over a certain value, or number of ounces ,or number of coins as they did in WW2. You were supposed to hand your sovereigns over to the bank and get notes back; if you were really patriotic, you'd then buy war bonds. If you did all that, you'd have been completely stung. Clearly, someone didn't trust the government and hid their coins in the old Joanna.
Will we be forced to hide our gold again? Will governments ban holding physical gold? Some people believe so. I don't know. The only reason I can think of why gold would be banned is because the majority of people want to get rid of fiat money asap. Should I be careful what I wish for?
It would seem that not trusting the authorities is a long-time, well-established practice for many of us. I wonder why?
HI Red
The run up in housing and share prices I think shows that people do not trust fiat, and this means they dont trust the government and the central bankers (won't mention the chosen bankers who are now wirting loans like there is no tomorrow, come one come all, there is a bit in the kitty for everyone, interest rates all time low etc etc....). Just had a house snapped up for north of $10m, sight unseen (apart from via video, and spy in the sky, and this seems to be going on in many cities at lower proces (if I believe the friendly real estate agents??)
I believe this is integenerational in Oz now.
I cant blame anyone for thinking this way, as the government has been woeful in Oz, until recently - we were the most undervaccinated country, none took responsibility for the 700 plus deaths in aged "care" from the virus, doled out $13 billion of tax payers money to companies who did not need it with no payback or give back clause (etc) and to make things worse they keep playing political games amongst one another rather than trying to row the boat in the right direction...and they dont even seem to understand how bad they have been.
Life pensions coming up all round for the pollies when they retire from politics and take up their lobbying jobs, whilst the next generation of 3 will be paying off the debt incurred
The amount of money sloshing around desperately looking for higher returns than the banks beggars belief. I dont understand why CEY which has a history 7 year historyof solid dividend playment, which operates with nice margins, that may well get better with the new management, and 10 years of future dividend payments... does not have higher demand than supply for its shares? and the SP riseth.
Funny old world eh?
Thank goodness for football ! At least they have a good set of undertandable transparent rules, and enough umpires of high standard. Pity would counldt run a market place like that?!
the Gnome
PS, I see you have let Blair out again! Still bellowing on about invading Islamic countries if the cause is good enough (it does not have to be true or pass the pub test). Can someone please give him "The true history of the crusaders "for his bedtime reading?
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x7x4936