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IMO the US/UK currently lacks the political apparatus to make sound financial decisions
That said I don't think China has any appetite for buying vast quantities of gold at $1800 an ounce either
Personally I'm not expecting gold to fly - which is fine - retail demand would suffer at $2000 plus
Miners can make a decent profit at this range
The issue going forward is dwindling reserves - Egypt and West Africa are the place(s) to be so I am very hopeful that Centamin LTH's will do well - Cheers!
(apologies in advance to redsparrow and other theologians for my layman's reply ;-)
The very quick answer to this is that the USA and UK are the main proponents of Keynesian economic policy, which, amongst many other things, sees the gold standard as a barbarous relic. Hence, gold has no role to play as 'money' as described by Keynes. It's just a commodity, such as copper - many would argue that copper is the more useful. Therefore, to start buying gold now would be an admission of defeat and that the politicians have got it wrong. It is very rare for a politician to admit they are wrong - you may have noticed.
It's also important to consider that both the USA and UK have not experienced hyperinflation - unlike Germany (which holds a lot of gold now). Empire's end with deflationary busts - Britain's started during the American civil war; the Empire's currencies were linked to the pound (even used the pound in most cases) and the pound rose in value causing deflation in the Empire and a rise in separatist movements. Then Germany formed and competed directly with Britain, and war saw us off very quickly. For the US, the dollar will ultimately rise and cause massive deflation in the world, eventually resulting in the decline of the US and rise of China.
So, we are ultimately looking at a huge deflationary bust coming early in the next decade - according to MA. But, for now, we have an inflationary wave due to shortages - not massive demand - which should be good for gold and commodities in general. As ever, it is timing and guessing what the manipulators will do next that matters. Ideally, we will be wanting to hold physical cash when the deflation comes. A government cryptocurrency may make that impossible, but I read this week that Sunak said he will not do away with cash. Then why bother with a cryptocurrency at all? - I don't trust him one inch. So, if there is a cryptocurrency only, it could make sense to hold gold even in the deflationary bust. At least you will have something at the end instead of a government helping itself from your crypto account.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/future-forecasts/ecm/the-sixth-wave-2032/
Now, wasn't that more interesting than writing about cars, apple trees and badgers?
Why is the BoE/USA not buying gold? - Any thoughts anyone?
Warren Buffett: Yes. The economy and Wall Street are joined at the hip. The market could not have taken another week like was developing last week.
Warren Buffett: Getting regulation around the entire derivative market is important. AIG would be doing fine now if they never heard the word derivative.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/97228-warren-buffett-on-goldman-sachs-and-the-financial-bailout-package
Gordon Brown has admitted he made a "big mistake" over the handling of financial regulation in the run-up to the banking crisis of 2008.
the former prime minister told a US conference he had not realised the "entanglements" of global institutions.
He said: "We set up the FSA [the City regulator] believing the problem would come from the failure of an individual institution. That was the big mistake.
"We didn't understand just how entangled things were."
Mr Brown said he had to "accept my responsibility" but added he was not the only one who had made mistakes.
The FSA, which Mr Brown established on his first day as chancellor in 1997, was widely criticised for its part in the banking collapse.
Mr Osborne has announced plans to break up the FSA and hand more regulatory power to the Bank of England.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13032013
Goldman Sachs, which is not understood to have been significantly short on gold itself, is rumoured to have approached the Treasury to explain the situation through its then head of commodities Gavyn Davies, later chairman of the BBC and married to Sue Nye who ran Brown’s private office.
Faced with the prospect of a global collapse in the banking system, the Chancellor took the decision to bail out the banks by dumping Britain’s gold, forcing the price down and allowing the banks to buy back gold at a profit, thus meeting their borrowing obligations!
Where's all my gold gone? The Queen wanted to know on Tuesday afternoon.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/12/18/queen-asks-george-osborne-gold_n_2321666.html
When the moment of maximum danger came, Brown had the right diagnosis and did largely the right things
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=CEY&share=Centamin-PLC&thread=9E1A15BB-BE80-4BD1-807E-B2B43C7F93DA
1997: Brown sets Bank of England free
The Chancellor, Gordon Brown, has given the Bank of England independence from political control.
His surprise announcement - coming only four days after Labour's landslide election win - is being described as the most radical shake-up in the bank's 300-year history.
Mr Brown has also announced a loan rate rise of a quarter-point to 6.25%. The increase was decided after Mr Brown's first and last meeting with the Governor of the Bank of England, Eddie George.
The chancellor went straight from that meeting to a news conference at which he unveiled his plans to give the bank freedom to control monetary policy.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/may/6/newsid_3806000/3806313.stm
Setting the Bank a 2.0% target for the pace of inflation, Brown was part of a global move to let technocrats monitor and manage the financial sector. There was simply no place for what John Maynard Keynes had so famously called the "barbarous relic" of gold as far back as the 1930s.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2019/05/03/20-years-since-the-uks-massive-gold-sales-heres-the-big-lesson-for-gold-investors/?sh=3e18b0ea2ac6
Mr Brown said that the issue underlined the need for further reform of the international banking system. "I am shocked at this moral bankruptcy. This is probably one of the worst cases that we have seen," he said.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8628231.stm
On October 28, 2008, Goldman Sachs received $10 billion of the first $125 billion from the $700 billion bailout bill. Goldman Sachs is a global bank holding company that works in investment banking, securities and investment management. It was founded in 1869 and made its name for its pioneering work in the use of commercial paper for business entrepreneurs. It joined the New York Stock Exchange in 1896. Last September, Goldman Sachs went from being one of the largest and most profitable U.S. securities firm to becoming the fourth largest bank in the United States, which means they are now regulated from the Federal Reserve.
https://www.taxpayer.net/budget-appropriations-tax/bailout-bank-bio-goldman-sachs/
Goldman Sachs has people in high places, who are able to substantially influence the trading climate under which Goldman makes money.
Goldman’s role in the financialization of America was similar to that of other players, except for one thing: Goldman didn’t believe its own hype!
https://furrybrowndog.wordpress.com/2009/08/02/goldman-sachs-reconsidered/
“I think that Mr Brown found himself in a terrible position,” he said.
“He was facing a problem that was a world scale problem where a number of financial institutions had become voluntarily short of gold to the extent that it was threatening the stability of the financial system and it was obvious that something had to be done.”
While the market manipulation which occurred when the gold reserves were sold was not illegal as the abuse at Barclays may have been, the moral atmosphere in which it took place was identical.
The crash which began in 2007 and endures still was the result of an abdication of responsibility across the financial sector. This abdication ranged from the consumer whose thirst for goods pushed him beyond into grave debt to a government whose lust for popularity encouraged it to do the same.
Responsibility is evaded by all bar those on whose shoulders it ought to rest. The gold panic of 1999 was expensively paid for by the British public. The one thing politicians ought to have bought with that money was a lesson in the structural restraints which needed to be placed on banks now that the principle that they were ultimately public liabilities had been established.It was a lesson which could have acted to restrain all players in the credit market boom of the 2000s. It was a lesson which nobody learnt!
http://marketoracle.co.uk/Article35501.html
It is possible, though unlikely, that the price of gold will crash at some stage in the future. So having a high proportion of assets in gold – quite aside from the loss of interest or dividends – makes no sense either. In strategic terms Gordon Brown’s decision was easy to defend. In tactical terms – the timing, announcing in advance how much would be sold, etc – it was dreadful.
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/gordon-brown-gold-reserves-sold-economy-analysis-financial-bullion-a8909611.html
IF you read a bit about how the gold and silver market works, how the banks manipulate it and the way in which they do, it was fairly obvious that selling gold was not something he decided to do off his own bat. Banks yet again getting in to trouble and needing help and when people ask why the UK, check out the LMBA, it's importance and then check the various vaults inventory.
Goldman Sachs, which is not understood to have been significantly short on gold itself, is rumoured to have approached the Treasury to explain the situation through its then head of commodities Gavyn Davies, later chairman of the BBC and married to Sue Nye who ran Brown’s private office. Faced with the prospect of a global collapse in the banking system, the Chancellor took the decision to bail out the banks by dumping Britain’s gold, forcing the price down and allowing the banks to buy back gold at a profit, thus meeting their borrowing obligations.
https://forums.digitalspy.com/discussion/1692242/gordon-brown-and-the-gold-sale
Where's all my gold gone? The Queen wanted to know on Tuesday afternoon.
https://
The real truth will out in September will the US reject Basell 111 and ignore , that is what they do if it does not suit the US.
MAYBE but interesting.
Surely you know comon tell us all ,no secrets. ;-)
Like sell paper au at bargain prices like the cenrtal bankster have being doing for years maybe.
Thanks Tibbs - Starting to get really interesting now isn't it? - One thing stands out for me, Andrew mentions Central Banks topping-up their gold-reserves positions through purchasing physical-gold. - The BoE isn't though, at least not so far as I'm aware, Gordon sold much of what we had in reserve and there are no reports of BoE purchasing gold. - Strange don't you think? - Unless of course they, in cahoots with US, know what the next stroke to be pulled is going to be.
Well done Cowichan!
Lots going on, nails on the head! , nails on the head!
Centamin is way ahead of all the others in Egypt now!
As the month draws to a close, Andrew Maguire assesses the gold and silver markets ahead of today’s Options Expiry and marks his price expectations for the precious metals by year’s end.
With January 2022 fast approaching, the precious metals expert details why the LBMA will feel the squeeze of Basel III months ahead of its official exposure to the ruling. Additionally, the long-time wholesaler reveals an email from a Swiss refiner that illustrates the evaporation of LBMA-controlled paper market liquidity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4pH0ZeKj4Q
If Barrick is interested in T/O of Centamin, I should think they would want the CC out of the way. - So, how interesting it will be if suddenly the CC is back in the news with a date for review. - Just a hunch. - Watch this space.
I think your thoughts are more than likely.
...an agreement was signed with Al-Sukari Gold Mining Company in February 2021 regarding the manufacturing process for mining equipment
...manufacturing in record time within 12 days for the first dump out of a total of 45 dumpers that will be manufactured successively
...the provision of technically qualified labor to serve the mining field in Egypt, in addition to the establishment of the first production line for the manufacture of mobile heavy mining equipment to serve gold mines.
Fadi Selim, a member of the board of directors of Aresco, a manufacturer of heavy mining equipment in Egypt, said that the Sukari company's initiative to manufacture heavy mining equipment in Egypt instead of importing it is one of the national initiatives that the state has always advocated with the support of President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi to reduce imports and settle modern technology and industrialization.
https://twitter.com/PeterHanna1/status/1421047425645649921
https://www.dostor.org/3524896
----------------------------->>>
My Thoughts: I wonder if Sukari expansion plans are already in the works between the EMRA and Centamin
Chicago PMI 73.4, Exp. 64.1
The fool likes us.
The share price of gold miner Centamin (LSE: CEY) has more than halved since this time last year. It’s been the victim of two common risks that can dent such a stock. Namely, a weakening of the price of gold and an operational setback.
However, I can see two reasons for optimism right now. First, continuing massive money printing by governments should be supportive of the gold price. Second, Centamin appears to have stabilised operations.
It reiterated its production and costs guidance for 2021 in a report on 22 July. I reckon further positive noises in its half-year results on 5 August could see returning investor interest in the stock.
So we can expect 6 cent divi sometime in September no doubt.
In the final results 22 March this year it said “ The Board reiterates its intention to recommend a minimum 2021 dividend of US$105 million (interim and final)”. You are of course quite right the last 3c was the final from 2020 following an interim 6c (I said these figures from memory), so total will be 9 cents again, but not necessarily in same split between interim and final as last year but makes more sense to keep the same, as 6c now and 3c later
£4.00 !!!. - Bring it on.
Hi Centaminers,
Although I don't have access to any privileged information, last week I was in contact with someone who is well informed on Centamin and they seemed very confident the already mentioned dividend is safe, also Martin Horgan regards maintaining a healthy divided as a very important factor of the company forward strategy.
The Sukari clean up is being closely managed and proceeding at a better then expected pace, it seems the site clean up has been beneficial in more ways than originally anticipated and the new team are taking advantage to gain a much better understanding than they had previously of the geological structure of Sukari, it is hoped that this should prove very beneficial in enabling safer and more efficient future open pit and underground production!
Possibly this why Martin Horgan seems optimistic about things moving forward and exited about giving the Q3 production update?
So I won't be worrying about this years dividend , or any takeover unless the interested suitor started the wooing at about £4 for now!
hi Red,
it's a time old strategy in business and even in politics, talk something down or make out your not interested if you want to put off other buyers /candidates and so push the price down, "Buffet' is past master at this game!
Thanks Mando
I missed the last two lines in the quarterly report. I will now sit back and smile.
Sotolo
Surely the 3% we last received was the final dividend for last year. Or am I missing something.
I think the US debt ceiling is imaginary, or so the amount of US debt would imply; It's a bit like my ever owning an e-Type Jag or Lotus Elan!
Opinions on the US Debt ceiling suspension ending 31 July, and the end of commercial mortgage relief?
Time2retire I was just thinking the same thing this morning. Thanks for posting.
Sotolo, can you confirm where that dividend statement is posted, as I have not been able to find anything whilst looking around myself. Thanks.