Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
I think a fall is pretty certain. Not just because of the amateur attempt at spinning the RNS but also because the gold price is breaking support and heading below 1900 this week...sadly.
I’m going to take a stab and say the market will not be happy with the results. Forward promises are all well and good, but on paper results are what matters (in my limited experience) and the numbers don’t stack up well, for the variety of reasons well discussed on this forum.
No that is this year. Next year they promise 5cents
I think Sotolo has it right. Minimum for 2022 FY will be 5c
This will bring the total dividend attributed to full year 2021 to 9 US cents per share (US$105 million)
From report “ our intention to pay a minimum 5 US cent 2022”
The current price has Centamin around its usual 14-15 PE rate. When the company is out performing in the past it was as high as 20 PE. Before profit share the PE was kept to 10. I therefore expect Centamin to be no change at the open. As I thought we have a lot of significant news in-bound during the year. Centamin is setting up as a growth share. They are spending now to deliver a stronger company in H2 and for next year. Hopefully we will get a broker note to capture their perspective.
Isn’t the dividend 9cents per year as per below
Consistent with the Company's stated commitment to shareholders, the Board proposes a final dividend of 5 US cents per share (US$58 million). This will bring the total dividend attributed to full year 2021 to 9 US cents per share (US$105 million)
Hope I am wrong but considering reduction in dividend going forward and short termism of most traders the SP looks likely to fall further. Need some good news from management on number of ounces and costs i.e. the things they can control.
I for one, love boring results when a company gives you exactly what it said it would. Could have done with a few more of these over the last year.
The figures are as bad as we expected, but going forward looks better although the promised min dividend for 2022 financial year of nearly half ie 5cents as supposed to 9cents this year just ended, L meaning a 3.5% yield at this price and 1.8% if we went to £2 so end of the days as a high yielder, again as expected. Question is will the market clobber us for seeing all this in black and white, what management had already said, or will it now look forward and despite the lower dividend (again as expected) begin to rise? I expect down before you but certainly no soaring, and we could be saved by gold rising…..or fall into losses as it tumbles below $1500 while the likes of Barrick and most miners still making hundreds of dollars an ounce.
“ As expected, and in line with our three year reset plans announced in December 2020, Centamin's cash flows and earnings declined in 2021 due to lower gold production and sales, higher costs and increased capital expenditure spend. Operational cash flow decreased by 32% to US$310 million, cash flows from investing activities was impacted mainly by gross capital expenditure of US$241 million (predominantly invested in the long-term sustainability of the business). Adjusted Group free cash flow[2] declined by 104% to negative US$6 million, after profit share distribution of US$75 million to our partner, the Arab Republic of Egypt.”
tired of the same old results, jam tomorrow.
1st read as nothing exciting but will top up on weakness -as ever who knows which way the market will react.
Nice income from dividend.
Major European stocks saw gains ahead of Wednesday's session as investors awaited a new round of talks between Russia and Ukraine, which is expected to take place later during the day. Meanwhile, German carmaker BMW and energy company E.ON posted their earnings results for the final quarter of 2021.
The DAX gained 0.90% or 127 points at 8:00 am CET, while the FTSE 100 rose by 1.36% and the CAC 40 climbed 1.90% or 120 points.
The euro advanced 0.16% against the dollar to 1.09738, while the pound inched up by 0.11% to $1.30570.
Baha Breaking the News (BBN) / ND
Happy hump guys.
May we enjoy everything we’re told today
Good luck y’al
Thanks
You could mount an argument that the other Gold companies are near fully priced, and have limited upside potential, whilst CEY, is underpriced (we all know why), and hence has significantly more upside than downside potential, if uses its capital and intellect to create real value. A guess...downside potential maybe 10%, upside potential maybe 100%...
Your guess, your gamble...
regards
the Gnome.
Day traders looking to capitalize on commodity price volatility catalyzed a chain reaction that ended with movie theater giant AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.’s unusual deal to take a stake in a gold-mining venture, Hycroft Mining Holding Corp.. COULD THIS BE A NEW WAY TO LEVERAGE OFF THE CINEMA AND MOVIE GOERS CIRCUIT (MARKETING?), AND PERHAP WE CAN SEE THE LATEST MOVIE " THE MAKING OF THE NEXT MAJOR GOLD COMPANY"..Perhaps this is what CEY needs... "THE PHAROHS GOLD"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AT3fCgxEAJE
Hycroft Mining Holding Corp. , which owns large gold deposits in Nevada, was on the verge of bankruptcy a few weeks ago before it caught the attention of meme-stock traders online and then of AMC CEO Adam Aron, people familiar with the matter said.
The theater company, itself rescued from potential bankruptcy by enthusiastic online investors last year, bought 22% of Hycroft on Tuesday—a quickly executed investment that caught analysts and investors off guard and was hailed by Mr. Aron as a “bold diversification move.”
AND THE NOT SO STRANGE ... SADLY
In the ruins of the former Soviet Union, legal giant Baker McKenzie found lucrative work for Russia’s largest state-controlled companies. From energy titan Gazprom to banking behemoth VTB to Rostec, maker of Kalashnikov rifles and fighter jets, Baker McKenzie served President Vladimir Putin’s business interests around the globe. As they say in the law firms ... another day another $1,000,000.
https://www.icij.org/investigations/russia-archive/
best
the gnome
TSX a small market Sir.
Wnere are you based, I wonder.
Out of interest.
I am hoping that the market and the algos will now start to look forward. A new Centamin offering hope and progress and an end of the barren years.
5 years of uncertainty and missed targets have weighed on the share price like an anchor. Having 1.2billion shares in issue doesn't help. We have a high volatility beta stock with big liquidity. Those attributes suit share punters of CFDs, the shorters and spreadbetters. Centamin management need to start nurturing and adding long term loyal shareholders. With the Sukari reset now in place management needs an action plan to build the share price and encourage shareholder loyalty.
To help build a large and loyal share register I would like to see:
1) The CEO and CFO buy at least 200k shares each to align their capital risk with long-suffering loyal shareholders. If not, what are our Executive Directors investing their own capital in as all other asset bubbles burst ?
2) End the Pardey started Executive Share Option Plan. Over 4 years he demonstrated his 3m share options were unmerited and extracted shareholder value at a time of declining production and rising costs.nual awards. N.B. our well compensated Executive Directors can still earn up to 125% of salary as an annual bonus.
I would argue that Centamin has too many shares in issue. Set a good example Executive Directors.
3) Consider a share consolidation plan to reduce the 1.2 bn shares in issue. Previous talk of using spare cash for share buy backs in the future would be better used to buy or develop new mines.
If the 1.2bn shares are all electronic nominee shares the costs consolidation should be minimal. I suggest a reduction to 600m shares total (a 1 for 2 shares held) or even better to 400m shares (1 for 3 shares held). That way you lift the share price out of poundland and it becomes rarer and there would be fewer available for lending to derivatives markets. In addition it would open the stock to more N.American institutional investors who have minimum prices for investments. Finally the underused TSX listing could bring in new investors.
Finally in all interviews going forward Horgan needs to promote the merits of gold vs depreciating fiat currencies as a store of value and talk up the share price. Its long overdue.
Marmot, my only question is will the journey back begin tomorrow or will the last lot of bad figures upset the market, ie will the market look back with the figures, or forward with the projections, also how bad will the oil and other inflation hit be to forward aisc. Roll on 2023 when Cey should really begin to motor unless gold collapses.
Cowichan I salute your relentless ferreting and demands for transparency. A company that is led by insecure people and a weak strategy generally has poor sentiment and a low settled state share price. Both have been confirmed with Centamin. However, I am now hopeful that with the new management we are finally moving on to a vigorous value added confident Centamin.
UPshunt by only getting in to Centamin in the last year you've cannily avoided years of angst that we have had to endure and you hopefully got a good price. Well done, I think your timing may turn out to be impeccable.
Yes thanks Mermot. I only really got into CEY last year. I used to be a sloppy trader with it though. Providing they maintain around 5% divi over the year I will be content.
Thanks for posting that brilliant analysis Marmot -
(please don't wait so long between posts !)
I haven't posted for a while as I (patiently) waited the 18 month gold price consolidation to end. Despite the large daily volatility in March I am now hopeful that gold now can hold support at the prior $1820-$1850 resistance. Both Centamin and the Fed have important updates tomorrow. Gold is already sensing that the Fed won't be able to raise interest rates in a meaningful way against inflation well above the official US CPI of 7.5%.
I believe that Centamin is now in a position to start to report real progress from each quarter going forward and finally offer its long suffering investors real progress after 4 barren years where the company has used the "strong" dividend as a fig leaf for the company's relative lack of progress.
With reference to Cowichan's question of 11/3 " how does everyone think about Centamin's super sized dividend policy?"
Firstly, I should define a dividend yield. The annual dividend per share divided by the share price. If a company's dividend yield has been steadily increasing this could be because they are increasing the dividend, because the share price is declining or both.
Centamin's dividend peaked in 2017-2018 and for 2019, 2020, 2021 has settled around 10c p.a. So the dividend yield rises because the 10c is divided into a relatively low share price. Centamin's dividend yield actually reflects a weak share price because of lack of added value to the business 2016-2022 to date. My research shows that since January 2016 all of the rival companies share prices have risen and held on to significant gains over the 6 year period. That reflects new mines being built, new investments, acquisitions and takeovers.
Centamin's dividend yield is the highest for negative reasons. Over 6 years the Centamin share price has risen 64% from 62.65p 22/1/16 to 102.68p on 11/3//22 when I analysed the competition. Over the same 6 year period :
CEY +64%
B2Gold +438%
Endeavour +356%
Newmont +285%
Kinross +280%
Agnico Eagle +125%
Barrick +109%
Consider if Centamin management in 2016 had invested the large 2017 dividend payment in emerging miners at the bottom of the cycle like B2Gold. Or if instead of sticking religiously to organic growth Centamin borrowed at the gold cycle low and with cheap credit like Endeavour. How might Centamin's comparatives look now ?
If Centamin had been able to make B2Gold's 2016-2022 progress the Centamin shareprice today would be around 276p. Match Endeavour's progress and Centamin could have a 223p price rather than being still stuck in pound land.
In conclusion, it is not the dividend that is too high it is that since 2016-17 production peak Centamin has reported no quantifiable progress that adds value for investors. The solar farm coming on stream at cost of $36m in June with resulting diesel cost savings of more than $1m p. month is the first real evidence of delivered added value and the share price will start to respond to such progress.
I took 25% off above 104p to avoid my CEY holding being overweight. The lift shaft drop has caught me out. I wonder how many took everything off to buy back in lower. The trouble is we have news coming in April and I am hoping CEY will go up much higher.
...this is a no brainer. Bought a lot more