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moss, If you strip out Steeldrum bblsd which was just bought production , then Leo has in 2 years not managed to increase production from Goudron by anything meaningful, a few bbls-d.
Just throwing it out there, but Ritson might actually have done better with the same resources from Goudron.
( It's your money, not mine )
I agree, Leo has achieved a lot since taking over, to move the company from the brink with limited finances in a relatively short space of time, is a huge accomplishment.
The RNS at the beginning of the year alluded to the fact that oil production would not be higher, the SPT is a killer and stifles growth.I get the feeling a bit of politics is now coming into play regarding the SPT, after reading to the comments from Leo and Paul Baay, it would seem they have tried lobbying the TT government but to no avail. Now it would appear they are indicating a move to away from further production in certain areas, as at current oil prices, investment in further exploration, especially offshore currently isn't worth the effort.
As for Goudron, it is proving to be a bit of a pain, there is oil down there, but the decline rates are rapid and I get the feeling Goudron will be dropped from the CERP stable in time, this in my opinion will be part of the transformation of Columbus Energy, as Leo is very keen to branch out to pastures new.
Even with the reduced production the profits are still very much the same.
SWP is still the prize and I am slightly disappointed that the drill has been put back to Q3.
All in all, this is a small company that has already transformed massively from the car crash Ritson left us with, and achieved without saddling the company with a large amount of debt.
“An inventory of incremental stimulation workovers was generated for future implementation based on rig availability and hurdle economic returns being met. Peak instantaneous rates continue to demonstrate the upside potential of all the producing fields.” Oh.. and, · The operational management of the Icacos Field was taken over by the Company on 1 January 2019.
Lgo, I thought you of all people on here would’ve realised how bad things had gotten under the old regime ( not all NR’s fault imho!) and how difficult a job LK and his team have had. Abandoned mines and skeletons littered all over the place that needed burying and diffusing.. LK’s change in style has moved from initial excitement to one of just getting on with things.. as a new ceo it was his job to sell the company to investors, and lets face it had a pretty rotten reputation.. reality has kicked in and plans have evolved.. so what! The plan is fluid rather than rigid, the money just isn’t there to progress as fast as we and I suspect him would like to go.. what’s the alternative high debt facility (been there) or would you rather fund raises at bucket shops again? It’s been a major overhaul and it’s still work in progress... IMO... GL..
Lgo, lk is doing a good job under the circumstances.
Mist oil fields need substantial continual investment to achieve a critical mass in production which, hopefully, leads to profitability.
Ie, you have to throw a lot of good money after bad. (Think of the money pit that is us shale investment).
Leo has no money.
Be thankful the cash burn isn't alot higher.
I don't think you appreciate the effects of SPT either.
Calling for his head is absolute nonsense imo.
Soup - glad you got there in the end!
Your post Sat 21:33 ' incedros, a textbook example of a ramper actively rejecting information that disputes their beliefs'
I'm not insulted to be called a ramper and I don't apologise for rejecting information that disputes my beliefs if that information comes from someone who is clearly poorly researched - most of the trolls on here have occasionally come up with something worthy of debate but are able to distinguish between fact and opinion.
cedros, so your understanding is that the 1000 bblds target has been dropped. Oh dear ( I only asked the question Cedric , does this target still exist )
It's your money , not mine
Regards Soup
Q1 2019: Peak production of 1,000 bopd achieved in late January, production exceeding 860 bopd on three occasions during quarter confirming the combined field potential when economic and commercial conditions allow a more aggressive well work programme. Lower production was due to significantly reduced well work activity. A single workover rig was utilised continuously in Q1 2019 compared to up to 4 units simultaneously in Q4 2018. Oil prices in the quarter remained in the $50-60/bbl zone where the step change in SPT adversely impacts short term incremental well work returns. · To progress discussions for renewing the Company's Incremental Production Service Contracts, in particular for the Inniss-Trinity field and Goudron field. The Company is keen to ensure that the IPSC terms motivate operators to invest funds to grow production including at times of lower oil prices and notwithstanding the effect of SPT on cashflows. Q4 2019: Year-end target of peak production of 1,000 barrels of oil per day ("bopd") achieved with production peaking at 1,021 bopd in late December 2018. Greater cashflow returns and profits can be achieved by producing more barrels in certain fields, when compared to others, due to higher netbacks from sales. The Company will target profit over "production per se".
and btw, I saw his latest interview. Call me a cynic, but that was not the same LK from 2 years ago. Not the same confidence, not the same openness. I didn’t like his body language at all. Felt we saw a man forcing to grin, like a farmer with a terrible toothache
if I were an II, it’d give him 1 more qtr to get his act together or I’d replace him. With someone who does deliver on commitments. That is absolutely vital. LK has gotten in into this terrible habit of promising things he never delivers on. I don’t care about the man’s track record, I only care about what he delivers now. He acts way too much as the door to door salesman of vacuum cleaners. Not enough as a CEO. And the thing is, no one other than himself sets the targets, that he then communicates to investors. So if they don’t deliver, it’s only LK to blame. He either is not competent enough to understand the chances of success linked to said commitments or he is blatantly ramping.
Soup - our exchange to date has been about whether there is a specific production targets for 2019 - I had hopes you might have been able to point out where LK has set them - something I might have overlooked - but you've failed in that challenge and now, to cover your embarrassment, you now wish to somehow associate it with my personal shareholding details.
I wouldn't even give those to Petersalkeld, who I believe is well intentioned, so it's pretty unlikely I'd divulge to some random scum-bag who seems to have difficulty grasping the concept of a fact and evidence!
the simple fact so mason here are debating....the facts, only means LK needs to start communicating better. Note that I do recall that LK states production for q1 would be around 1000bopd level. But that they would not seek to further increase. That was my understanding. He made a big song and dance about how material a player CERP was now that they achieved that level. I assumed he was over promising again, so thought we will be around 800bopd, but 600bopd....really?
incedros, to be honest, you don't make much sense.
Could you indicate what price you started investing in CERP at ? ( I will be honest and admit that I rather suspect you are sitting on a huge loss , but do correct me if I'm wrong. )
Seriously daz, forget about this board, this discussion and me, and just read the pertinent documents. Ie, admission docs, cpr's and rns
Have a good weekend too.
Or would you anticipate well workover costs to be US$770k or somewhere in the middle?
Soup.. if the company maintains production at 600 bopd at anticipated well work over costs?? What’s sort of financial gain would you expect to see inline with the current oil price? Q3 well workovers cost US$770k Q4 well workovers cost US$720k (4 rigs). Q1 well workovers cost US$???k (1 rig).
Soup - I think you are beginning to understand - yes there was a target for 2018 of 1000 bopd which was met.
In the same January rns revealing the target achievement LK advised the change of production policy going forward - with no specific target that I can recall - if you've seen one produced by CERP just quote me the evidence.
If you came on here criticising LK for not providing production targets in 2019 that would be fair comment but facts are facts - if mine are wrong and there is a target please share it with us and I'll certainly apologise for misleading !
Goudron is a French word, translates to Tar.. :)
incedros, a textbook example of a ramper "actively rejecting information that dispute their beliefs".
So you seem to be saying two things.
1) that CERP hit it's bopd target of 1000 bpdd
2) CERP however is not now setting further bopd targets ( hmmm a bit strange it was hitting targets to suddenly stop)
Ha ha talk about non sensical. I don't think you engaged brain before that post but as I say it's your money you are losing , not mine.
But just for the avoidance of doubt. Please let us know which is correct.
1. CERP does not now have a bopd target for end Q2 / Q3 / Q4 2019 (even though it is an oil company)
2. CERP does have a bopd target for end Q2/Q3/Q4. If so what is it.
Looking forward to more laughs , sorry your answer.
In4, goudron is a fickle field.
Ritson had a good plan to try conquer it. Shit happened. Tough luck.
Even Leo can't get a grip on goudron with f all funds.
It was a high risk, high reward game. Fail and die.
This is why they do it with OPM, other people's money.
What's reckless is people investing in companies where they clearly don't understand the risks.
joebop - re your posts about Ritson - it's clear to me he destroyed shareholder value in this company by following a reckless strategy, which failed, with borrowed money that he couldn't afford to repay - almost bankrupting the company.
“Optimise profits from operations and manage costs from the Company's producing assets, in a lower oil price environment where the impact of Special Petroleum Tax ("SPT") on cashflows is very real, not necessarily through continual production growth but through a programme of maximising commercial returns on each asset, through implementing cost reductions, where necessary, and managing well work activities. Focus has been not to simply grow production (for growth's sake) but to improve commercial returns on the assets through more effective well work and operational activities.” Q3 2018- Avg 735bopd-WTI,US$60.90-cfp US$0.54. Q4 2018- Avg 670bopd -WTI, US$57.58 - cfp-US$0.37. Q1 2019 - Avg 602bopd - WTI,US$55.67 - cfp- US$0.40. WTI currently at US$64.(beginning of Q2 US$60).
Daz, I corrected your broken drill bit tripe.
I told you where to look to correct your other mistakes.
Look it up, don't look it up, the choice is yours. Don't expect me to spoon feed you and then throw your toys out of the pram when I tell you to grow up a wee bit.
Soup - I'm all for fair comment and that last rns gave anyone with a decent knowledge of CERP plenty of opportunities for adverse criticism.
You have, however, selected the end of year target 1000 bopd. That was achieved but if you actually read the rns it's quite clear that LK wasn't rolling over that target for 2019 as he said he would be concentrating on profitability per barrel going forward.
Despite his pronouncement he wasn't able to turn the taps off immediately so there were some periods of high production in Q1 detailed in the April rns.
Hope that clarifies matters for you - if I've missed something and you are able to evidence a specific production target for 2019 I'd be delighted to take it on board!
MrMaggo, I take your comment as a compliment.
In Q4 you all were adamant that it was "extreme weather" that was the cause of the Leo's missed target.
Now that it has been missed AGAIN in Q1 you have moved on to another excuse, which it is that oil prices were to blame (lol creative I'll give you that).
It is really quite funny to how the rampers can resist the truth, and actively reject information. But it is your money you are losing, not mine. The denial is amusing because it only hurts yourself.
( btw what is the status of the 1000bbls-d target ? Seems to me that Leo has quietly dropped it altogether. Will one of you brave rampers ask him when he intends to hit it, or would you rather we just forgot about pesky targets )