Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Starchild
1. “You absurdly state share BBs do not influence market sentiment.” Not in any significant way, no. You have either backed the right horse or you haven’t and your BPC/CEG postathon is not going to change that.
2. “You post as if you are a neutral wise sage whose opinions are in good faith when in fact they are based on your trading position/CFDs at the time.” No, I post as if I am free to say what I think, because I am, whatever my position at the time: again, BB posts do not influence market sentiment in any significant way. So although I am currently long CEG I do not need to hide my suspicions that it is and will remain a PoS.
3. “You are a self-professed ‘ramper stamper’.” You obviously don’t get the jokey film reference. But permabulls like you need to be challenged. History suggests that your BPC posts were less than objective and lacked real insight. Your posts are not, of course, going to significantly influence market sentiment but they may influence individuals.
4. “You had issues with CERP, then BPC, now CEG and recently stated you have bought-in while holding your nose.” Absolutely. Awful companies run by people who were more than just unlucky.
5. “And worse of all, you sought money to stop posting CERP negativity. We have an audit trail, so you can’t deny this.” In that case follow the audit trail to the beginning and apologise for that characterisation.
This is not investment advice but consider whether you would not be better switching your investment in CEG sooner rather than later into a solid, serious company like TRIN, where there is still arguably plenty of upside and, I would argue, a lot less downside. That is my plan if my current CEG trade comes off.
I have listed my best guesses of expected news and its impact to CEG’s SP. ‘H’ (high), ‘M’ (medium), commentary in [ ]. Updated and renumbered.
ASAP
1. (H VIP) Saffron 2 spud result this week
2. (H VIP) Confirmation Bahamas licenses renewed from 1/7/21 for 3 years
3. (H VIP) Detailed Percy-1 autopsy [Connected to 2, Gov renewal. If there’s a good case for further drills, SP should increase. The market currently values this and the $150m spent to date as zero].
By July 31
10. (H VIP) S2 detailed results. [CPR?]
11. (H) Bizzell 8p funding option. [Jul 31 is end date]
12. (M) Trading statement until 30/6/21
13. (M) Suriname spud update
14. (M) EA court hearing update
15. (M) How is the CEG/PRD JV for CO2 progressing?
By Sept 30
20. (H VIP) A major in the data-room? [Subject to 2, 3. Last time this happened in 2018 MCap soared to 156m pre CERP merger. Equiv to 20p now]
21. (M) What’s next in T+T
22. (H) Enviro’s court case 2-3 days. [+/- 2 weeks for judgement. Key will be the summing up. If the court LAMBASTS the Enviros’ conduct and implies malice, more chance of 23 happening]
23. (M) Possible legal action against the enviros for attempting an injunction which cost BPC and its shareholders millions, while allegedly harassing suppliers (LOL and Lloyds)
24. (M) Y/E 2020 financials including events since 31/12/20 [Connected to 25, 26. MEGA loss expected. Material events since, may or may not meet expectations. T+T 2019 tax losses C/F were $85m c$25m net. 2020???]
25. (H VIP) Final Bahamas costs. [Excluding $4m to LOL, if the legacy bills total <$10m it will be good. If some debt is paid in shares, it depends at what price. Positive: more cash. Negative: some dilution]
26. (M or H) Funding availability vs needs [RBL?]
27. (M) Uruguay update. [See 999]
28. (M) PoO. [High impact if stuck at <$55/b or >$80/b]
By 4th quarter
999. (H VIP) Farm in with a major or a consortium of smaller ones to share the risk/reward? Will CEG get some of the c$150m spent and/or free Percy-2/3 drill(s)? [Connected to 2, 3, 20 and possibly PoO 28. Refer to my recent posts for financial justification modelling on how a major could get a ‘free’ Bahamas spud if CEG leverages Uruguay spud].
High impact news is shown as ‘VIP’ above.
IMHO. DYOR. Proposed updates welcome. GLA.
Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/
Rossannan: Please do NOT EVER give me investment advice again. You absurdly state share BBs do not influence market sentiment. You post as if you are a neutral wise sage whose opinions are in good faith when in fact they are based on your trading position/CFDs at the time. You are a self-professed ‘ramper stamper’. You had issues with CERP, then BPC, now CEG and recently stated you have bought-in while holding your nose. And worse of all, you sought money to stop posting CERP negativity. We have an audit trail, so you can’t deny this.