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It is just possible a good re-rate could be on the cards Tomorrow given the news Aida is resuming sailing in August of there phase 1 planned re-start we could see a lift today pre news etc tomorrow .
I agree price holding very well indeed given the update looming
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It would seem Carnival on NYSE is significantly pulling this up in the lead up to tomorrow.
As you say even if they have some ports to operate from, the risk of having just one infected person on board will be unthinkable as the worlds press will be all over it.
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Let's see how the UK Government develops the advice following the Air Bridges. On Tuesday the Government provided the following details, given Portugal is not part of the UK's air bridge.
https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/portugal/entry-requirements
Cruise ships can berth at ports on mainland Portugal, but passengers can only disembark if they are Portuguese nationals or residents.
Cruise ships are allowed to dock in Madeira and Porto Santo for a maximum period of 48 hours, but passengers and crew are not allowed to embark or disembark.
I agree price holding very well indeed given the update looming, I think it will be very positive indeed consolidation has started so only one way to go full steam ahead in part at least. I still think autumn they will sail and also I spoke to P&O this morning and was advised “very highly likely Caribbean season will go ahead”
Can't see news on this site yet - but AIDA cruises have just announced sailings for August in a rather limited way. But its a start.
I think all the bad news has been priced in
I really don’t know if I should be in or out for this report.
They will have to try and dress it up which may give the SP a small lift but surly it will soon go down. As you say even if they have some ports to operate from, the risk of having just one infected person on board will be unthinkable as the worlds press will be all over it.
Interesting article on the cruse ships and where they are laid up at present. It went on to detail the consequences of either "warm" layover or "cold" layover in terms of cost to maintain this and costs to re-commission and the gist of it was that the longer this goes on the more degraded the ships systems become and the more costs involved in re-starting the whole enterprise. Unsurprisingly, the sea air takes a harsh toll on plumbing and electrical systems if they are laid up cold and not used and the same is true of navigation and propulsion equipment. There will be a tipping point where it is no longer economically viable to return a ship to service, particularly if it will only operate at a fraction of previous capacity. A sign of this was that the Costa Victoria (launched 1995) had been sold to become an accommodation ship at one of Italy’s shipyards. However, in a surprise announcement, the mayor of Piombino, Italy Francesco Ferrari, announced that the ship had arrived at the Tuscan port to be scrapped.
Nomad, I would say do the reverse. Sell on good news to take profit and buy on bad news. This is because there is a lot of retail investors out there that will support the SP so every drop, they will buy so you buy the drops, the RI will buy it back up then you sell again on any positive news. Keep trading but don't hold until clear sight of FULL sailing dates.
With extra costs that is going to be built into the sailings with more staff, less passenger, more safety, the profitability will take a big hit and one outbreak on a ship will effectively cost it millions in costs as no one will let it dock. Covid is still rife in Europe and Americas. Out of a few thousand people, there is bound to be a few on board.....
If you bought at 3000, don't even have hope that it will get back there this year because it won't for quite a few years. This is a severely weakened giant and the profitability going forward is very unclear so I can't see it getting back to 3000
They are not sailing in Northern Europe for the rest of the summer season and probably much longer as it will be winter.
So sell on bad news and buy on good news.
I will have a look at it the rns today didn’t seem to positive I’m hoping they open up Europe side even if the USA is scary atm. When is the Covent breach date do you know?
Also, if you can make any sense of when they will next need to raise cash from the presentation, it would be massively helpful. I know they have enough cash to last 12 months but that is not the time when they have to raise more. It is when they are approaching breach level.
Personally, I would only trade this on spikes of any positive news such as imminent sailing dates. I would only invest longer term when there is a vaccine. This is not one to buy and hold now because with every month, the hole gets bigger so the SP can only spiral downwards. I think a lot of people will be invested thinking this is long term play so when the SP drops, they will just buy. The way to play this is buy on bad news and sell on good news (unless vaccine is here). The big spike will be when there is an imminent sailing date so watch that and sell when that news is out. But don't sell when vaccine is out. Hope that makes good logic
It will be a nice recovery eventually I’m on my 3rd time being in having cashed out twice before and I’m on the edge of doing it my issue is I don’t know where the Bottom is or when it will go up! It’s hard to work out a good buy price for now I saw a chance to buy a dip and got in ready for the 10th. We shall see what happens!
Noobz, you potentially could be right. Travel WILL come back and one day this will be profitable again. On good news, this could well spike up to the teens again but at the moment, I feel to invest in this, I would be flying a little blind because it would be too much trouble to trawl through to see when their various debt covenants could be breached. This is the key to their survival and it is linked to when it can start sailing profitably obviously.
I originally thought CCL would be a great recovery and that's why I started studying it. I am skeptical now and would only invest in this long term with a vaccine in sight. The fundamentals of cruising is different unless a vaccine is found.
I am a fan of a cruise BTW and would love to go back on one.
If you have two used Identical cars with identical damage and spec everything however the mileage is different with more miles will be worth less than the lower one however if both cars are identical in everyway and the same miles they are worth the same. I suggest if you in at the top just hold you won’t loose out that way and no reason travel won’t come back booming it just might take a while to get their
I think carve gives a very valid point tbh well founded point tbh. A share can only stabilise if the fundamentals stay the same and can only rise if they change for the better thing is the fundamentals have changed for the worse they have lost a lot of money. I’m not saying it isn’t going to rise and I am invested here i think the point is the amount of time that it will take. The hole needs to be plugged for it to have the same standing as before to reach the same level. Imo though should be in the teens with some good news! Hope that made sense it’s not doom and gloom it’s just about how you look at it’s worth.
If that is still too hard to grasp, then just imagine you own a house but you lost your job temporarily and you are using the mortgage to pay your living expenses of £650 a month. After 6 months, you find that you owe £4000 more and your house value is less. Are you still in the same financial state and worth the same?
Am I right in saying that CCL is trying to sell ships in a pandemic when everyone is selling? Do you think you will get top dollar? There will have to be writedowns in assets and that will be across the board. The more I think, the more this seems to be on a knife edge to me.
You have got the wrong end of the stick. I am just replying to someone who is using the past SP to predict the potential future SP of this and I am pointing out why that is misguided because the fundamental numbers of this has changed drastically. This is not a hard concept to grasp. This together with lots of other businesses. They will not get back to the peak in a hurry because PE ratio, debt to equity and even cost basis have been radically altered by the virus.
Carvegyber until and unless you are an oracle, how are you able to predict the share price in 5 years time which even the best fund managers and analysts can't predict. Think before providing advise to others what you yourself are saying.
Peterashbeck, most investors still don't realise that you cannot use the past SP as a gauge for potential upside as in technical investing. The fundamentals have changed. Covid has carved a big hole in the balance sheet. There will be permanent damage with asset sales etc and bigger debt not to mention dilution. Even if it doesn't go for a major equity restructure, this will not get back to the peak it once was in the next 5 years so using previous peak to gauge your potential upside is misguided.
Very interesting indeed fantastic news and I’m my opinion by autumn cruising will re-commence in full
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8489381/Cruise-industry-leaders-confirm-days-traditional-buffet-over.html
Monday would be nice to break 1025 mark of previous close show a bull market still seems like a downward trend Since beginning of june. Why I cashed out then Thursday caught me by a nice surprise And with news coming I’m confident! Bigger picture nice wave 3 is coming since the covid crash We have stayed consistently above our low of around 600 I think 608 not 100% though! Just not sure when the bottom is found on this cycle believe us to be in wave 2 currently hence the bear market currently.
Defiantly a time to top up for the retrace got 10th set in my Callander as an alert for greater things don’t panic if they announce any results they haven’t been sailing so expect some bad results the past few months which has been priced in already by means of RNS! GLA
We are still less than a third of the price we are at before covid his western Europe. There is certainly a significant recovery to come here.