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The below comment is from a few years ago, since then we have the NY and Block 8 Reserves to consider too.
''We are preparing to commence a formal 90 day flow test, following which we plan to instruct Gaffney Cline to help assess the quantity of reserves associated with the Airshagyl structure.''
GC are going to have their work cut out with 4-5 drilled deep structures to now assess, they won't just do a CPR for Airshagyl structure.
A new CPR from GC will no doubt be conservative somewhat - year end/ early 2025?, I wouldn't be surprised to see 1P/2P Reserves knocking on 100m+ barrels from these massive structures., regardless if the light oil isn't flowing due to blockages etc. the oil is there and the seismic data/ well data will prove it, and in no small numbers.
At WHI have the P1/P2 Reserves (Shallow Reserves $$) at $8 bucks a barrel that works out at $800m per 100m barrels of 1P/2P barrels - funny that ain't it Clive/ KO.
And note the deeps have lighter oil and are more valuable to boot.
Now bear this in mind, the shallow 1P/2P Reserves currently stand at approx. 40m barrels at WHI $8 per barrel, no doubt the deep oil 1P/2P Reserves will dwarf this.
3.4p - is someone having a laugh..........
Thanks every body for all your input much appreciated.
Ko's Co's do reside in the uae though, Al Marri's have connections for when he wants a sponsor, I've looked up his assets, he's got loads, it's all lined up for 2024.
"Imo 20 to 30p per share assuming 1x A well flows ..."
In other words, an amount which at least satisfies Kuat's and Carver's hefty bonus awards which kick in at 800m USD market cap (currently around 27.13p/sh)
CC,
It’s not impossible and that’s why we’re here but drilling history ensures a good dose of cynicism.
I don’t believe they sell the company, BNG ? very possible if an A well flowed. If they did succeed on A block it would be a prime time to sell the acreage. I don’t believe they bin the lot as I can see the KO clan will want to carry on the game with WS and any other Oraziman assets hanging around, those mining ones next ;).
I’ve said many times that corporate activity was in play following the Oct IP publication. Is it fantasy or is a possibility, I go believe it is.
Taxation also will play a part so will be interesting how they play it. KO doesn’t reside in the UAE btw .
Smarty,
Just read the RNS'S, reread 2018 and add in the boat and Block 8, (ignore west shalva, that gives Kuat back what he lost out on casp shares for the C.E.)
A Wells plus North Yelemes 801,802 and 803 = another licence.
Block 8 4 wells.
Caspian explorer
Mjf
South yelemes.
( forget 3AB )
Sell.
Imo 20 to 30p per share assuming 1x A well flows for data and 1 x 800 well flows for data.
Oh yes, if that miracle happened, it would hundreds of millions :)
Smarty.
Is the Rib you now want over £50k?
Thanks for the comments Jimmy but it’s New Norm’s input on ADVFN not mine although I do believe it’s feasible, not the company sale but maybe some of the assets.
A bit of blue sky speculation. If and it's a BIG if (hat ready), A5 was flowing, that would be the company maker as they could make the case on A Block and probably NY ie all wells have flowed and make a case for huge reserves. You could add in B8 as part of the story maybe and who knows, they could be talking to GC re a new reserves report . If A5 was flowing, this will go bonkers but that is a very BIG if. They would have to invest huge sums to develop infrastructure but maybe they would rather sell the asset for a tidy sum, especially if B8 new wells flowed ,they could then make the case that all structures are linked and huge reserves available. That would be a job for a major, probably political too.
All speculation Jimmy, not impossible but the Oct 23 new IP was a bit of a surprise and smelt of corporate activity.
Never say never, that's why we're here.
Smartyp1
Very good post interesting read would have taken you a while typing that out very much appreciated.
What is your a pinion on what the hole lot could be worth thanks in advance if you have time.
if not thanks anyway
A good post from NN on ADVFN. He won’t mind me posting and I’m not far off with my thinking. I don’t think biz dale but asset sales ie BNG, 3AB. Maybe I’m off base with A5 and something could happen but I have hat ready for eating if that were the case. We commented on the out of the blue new IP and I sense that something major could be going on.
did the 'Family' subtly put the 'for sale' sign up on 31st October 2023 and we all missed it?
why else did the company go to the not insignificant expense of preparing a glossy 24 page Investor Presentation document? the half year results were medicore, they had stopped the dividend earlier in the year, all negative stuff which drove SP back to the 2s from 8....
who was the Presentation for? Family and Concert Party? PIs?
Family don't need a glossy document to tell them what they are doing and why would it be prepared for the benefit of PIs who are constantly kept in the dark?
For sale sign on whole Group business makes much more sense
Reading the March 24 RNS in this context also begins to shed light on what the Family is trying to achieve...all positive stuff covering wide range of Groups business activities and multiple profit income streams in current financial year
In addition this RNS confirms they have a few interested parties in the shallows, will this interest develop into an interest in the whole Group?
Interesting that the RNS even covered 3A Best which is fully impaired and has been in limbo for years, but the RNS is keen to stress that if licence is renewed and the directors chose to sell asset it will be all profit from that transaction. If you were discussing sale of whole of CASP this comment makes sense to extract the best possible takeover price
Adding WS shortly after the March 24 RNS also suggests that something is brewing behind the scenes. The Family sell asset to Group for 4p a share knowing that xxp is coming once takeover is sealed. This acquisition and the subsequent issue of additional shares to the Family ensures they now have controlling interest of CASP with their total Family shareholding going above 50%....perfect timing???
The Family went to incredible lengths to have all their shareholdings held through QAE tax free vehicles...if it bags 5x or more then not wasted effort bearing mind the Kaz tax they would have avoided paying
I've probably been sniffing too much of the fumes from the paint drying here but then again a potential buyer of CASP will be insisting on radio silence while they fine tune their negotiations with the Family!
Wolfi…….lol
I didn’t know you did Coastguard service , well done :)
Artic 28s…..lol. Twin engined 400s !! Diver would report me tearing up the Sole t after a couple of beers !
Do you know how much they cost !! Seal Tours obviously a lucrative business ;)
What did you tell him that for, he's pulling his face mask and flippers on as we speak ...
Smarty - got a mate who runs a seal tours business, he's got 2 Artic 28's and he swears by them, Royal marines & SBS use them as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Co7UxagUoQA&ab_channel=StuartBarnes
Sounds like they would be better off playing on the Goodwin sands, Neil Oliver of coast tried it and came a cropper.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gx0LlWcnA0s&t=98s&ab_channel=DaveChamberlain
Wolfi - watched two large hired boats playing cricket on the river, one boat with bat, other bowling.
More or less every shot stopping to retrieve the ball, funny to watch but causing rather a jam.
Tell me about it, i did 11 years service with Coastguard search & rescue, some of the incidents we had to deal with you wouldn't believe how stupid people can be.
You see some proper loons on boats, pardon the pun, at times out of their depth...
Skippers, not for me. That’s for lunatics that want to hang off the side of a boat ! Much prefer the car similarity, steering wheel, throttle and everything level until you want to go round corners :) A quick trip to the George in Yarmouth, sea like a mill pond and jobs a goodun .
Lol, cheers for the offer, I meant skippers day ticket.
Something to do to pass the time.
Or 2 x 150s to avoid getting the oars out !
Day ticket ? you wanna come too :)
Smarty, you doing the day ticket?
A5 ? thought not. Much that I’d love it to be a gusher again, I believe that’s down the line but hey, happy to be converted with the evidence ;)
Diver,
As I’m sure you know, you can pick up a 4-5 year old me for sub 50k with 200-300 single motor. So a Brig with a good motor. If it’s 7m, engine size ?
Mike, I had the toys, all good fun at the time.
Was out on the water last weekend, first time for a long time.
The Irons look decent, nice double axle braked trailer and you are away.
George if you want one for the kids, I would recommend something like a Ribeye, there is a 2nd hand one here 2022 model in Dartmouth ....... Ribeye Prime 941
£230,000 Dartmouth, Devon