We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
CASP, well it drills holes and extracts oil, transforming from an explorer to production, see below ....
Caspian Sunrise Summary.
BNG:- 1561 sq Km contact area, 40 Km from Tengiz (Nearology)
MJF:- Shallows Export licence to 2043
141:- Spud 2015 depth 2500m Sidetrack commence Dec 2023 27m of stuck pipe
142:- Spud 2015 depth 2500m Dec 2023 new sidetrack, 3 intervals, 1 now flowing at 160 BOPDs
143:- Spud 2013 depth 2750m Tender for pipe lines to GZU Oct 2023
144:- Spud 2017 depth 2750m up to 700 BOPDs 7mm choke
145:- Spud 2017 depth 2750m Workover failed Feb 2024
146:- Spud 2017 depth 2750m
150:- Spud 2019, 1st infill well, up to 500 BOPDs
151:- Spud 2020, 3rd infill well, to be re-drilled horizontal
152:- New well planned as a horizontal drill
153:- Spud 2020 depth 2503m Workover in prog was producing 830 BOPDs 8.5mm choke
154:- Spud 2021 depth 2548m, up to 645 BOPDs
155:- Spud expected Nov 2023 completed Q1 2024 TD 2400m now at 1000m 25/3/24
South Yelemes:- Shallows Full production/export licence to 2046
54:- Soviet sub economic 30BOPD workover Q1 2024 2000m targeting Dolomite
805:- 160 BOPDs sidetrack Dec 2023, 2222m targeting Dolomite
806:- Workover Q1 2024 2000m targeting Dolomite was flowing at 150 BOPDs with 807
807:- Workover Q1 2024 2000m targeting Dolomite
808:- Spud 2017 3200m 6 intervals potential new structure, drilled to 3070m, inconclusive testing, high water saturation, 2 shallow intervals of interest not yet tested
Yelemes Deeps:- 36sqKm Salt layer typically 3000m – 3500m
801:- Sinopec drill, spuded Dec 2014 Drilled to 4950m/5050m? Jul 2015, now blocked, waiting for rig
802:- Stuck pipe , work halted Total depth 4200m flowed at 700-900 bopd 100m earlier than expected looking for partners
803:- Spud Dec 2023 target depth 4200m TD Mar 2024 at 1250m 25 Mar 2024
804:- New well planned
Airshagyl deeps:- 58sqKm Salt layer typically 3700m – 4000m
A1:- Maps only
A2:- No mention on any maps (Possibly old Soviet era well)
A3:- Maps only
A4:- Maps only
A5:- Blocked, 63m interval flowed at 3800 Bopd 19mm choke for 15 days Dec 2017, flowed at 1500 Bopd 12mm choke Feb 2019 for 40 days. New sidetrack from 3769m to 4405m Nov 2023
A6- Drilled 2015 to 4516m Repair required Q4 2023
A7- Paused at 2150m to be continued to 5300m Q1 2024 interval of interest at 4000m
A8- 3 oil bearing intervals, now abandoned
A9 New well planned to find perimeter of Airshagyl TD 5300m targeting Jurassic prospect
A10 New well planned
Block 8 Deeps:- 2823sq Km contract area, cost $60m from future production at $5 per barrel waiting for licence, owned by Procyon investments (Member of the Oraziman family)
Well P-1:- Drilled 2016 Depth 4203m, P1+P2 Combined 110 BOPDs did flow up to 800 BOPDs, Sholkara structure
Well P-2:- Drilled 2019 Depth 3449m Sholkara structure
AKD-4:- Reached target depth 3922m prep for testing Nov 2023 Akkuduk structure
T-2D:- Reached 3408m target 3500m prep for testing Nov
Have ventured over from someone posting on a KOD board oddly wanting attention from someone else, became interested in this share, can anyone give me a basic rundown tldr on CASP and it's potential?
Thanks
MLQ,
What are you talking a bout?
And if that were the case why are there discussions with multiple buyers?
''The Board has in recent months entered into a number of discussions with potential buyers concerning the BNG shallow structures''
And:
''Recently the market discount on oil produced in Kazakhstan but transported via the Russian pipeline network has all but disappeared for international consignments of approximately 70,000 barrels per month and greater.''
So they can sell their oil internationally through the Russian pipeline now with pretty much no discount.
More research needed.
MLQ rare we disagree but I think market will forward value this and oil will be going into the BRICKS.
China setting up new pipelines and oil being shipped across caspian sea.
Full value - no, a decent proportion of it - yes
Value won't be out by a supermajor til a new route to market is established, Don't forget PapaPutin has put some of his water toys into the Caspian Sea,,
Thats correct Blue but i did not sell i bottled it but have not bothered posting. I still want my 10p get out price for £72,000 but honestly think we have a shot at the 24p price of years ago . Good luck to you all.
BM,
My mistake.
Gritster and Coffeemug,
Have both stated CASP were tabled $80 million for the shallows as fact.
If CASP spent spent say $70m on developing both of the shallows they would want to factor some of that in to a sale price, say $20m? so if they were offered $80m less $20m costs that would work out at approx. $1.5 per barrel of 1P/2P oil.
So this is why I do not believe $80m has been tabled for both shallows, let alone that these two would have any incite into what bids are being tabled.
Now if someone said they'd been told a bid of $80m had been bid for one of the shallows then that would be a possible ballpark number I could accept being tabled, but even then this bid is not going to out especially from two posters on an AIM BB.
$1.50 per barrel of 1P/2P boo? yeah right.
Oh and because the 155 Well may come in next month the bid has been upped to way over $100m from three weeks ago, couldn't make it up if I tried.
To be fair, he sold out in April 2022; those comments were two years ago.
Gritster,
Stop talking nonsense.
Last month you said you're out at 3p on 3 April it's now 3.6p and almost May......so?
You do make me laugh, again from last month.
''Like i have been warning you all . Oil can hit $150 and Casp can flow a deep but it still wont top 7p.''
And now we're to believe you're in the know and being passed fly on the wall bids. lol!!
Gritster,
the timing is interesting, A5 looks like it's going to flow in 11 days time.
If that flows it gives data and funding for A7, 802 and 803.
The boat money is coming home
It could mean Kuat doesnt need to sell anything unless it is at his price.
He's shown before he understands the price of a pound note.
Hopefully yeh but thats what was on the table 3 weeks ago.
Gritster,
That was before well 155 news and the tie back to the production zone.
That's been put on there to get the negotiations to the $100+m imo.
Gritster,
If they'd spent around $70 million developing the shallows why would they accept $80 million for them or even $100 million? I'd have to say your statement as fact is incredulous at best.
Hes been offered 80 million but wants nearer 100 apparently. Dont know if thats dollars or pounds. Should hear something soon .
Rocketeer,
The current 3.6p share price includes 'some' valuation for the shallows so the bulk of the shallows current valuation would be absorbed in the $200m sales price. It wouldn't be the current share price plus sales dosh equals X but I like your thinking.
Note you don't often see a Company's cash pile valued more than the MC, the proceeds would no doubt be reflected in the share price somewhat, but it would be unlikely to be 8p + 3.6.
However, what would have a big impact on the share price regardless what the shallows were sold for would be if a Supermajor like Chevron/ Exxon bought the shallows as they'd be virtually next door best mates and first inline to buy the deeps, which in its self would be reflected enormously in the share price.
If I was a Supermajor I'd be wanting to buy the deeps too, KO may be putting any shallow/ deep sale off until the 155/ 806/ 141/ 802/ 803/ A5/ A7 wells have been drilled in the coming months for a better sales price?
Would a Supermajor want to develop the shallows while another is developing the deeps where the big oil numbers are at? I'd want the whole lot - $3 billion for the lot is nothing to the big boys.
If there are multiple bidders for the shallows then there'll be multiple bidders for the deeps, why not make KO an offer for the lot now he can not refuse?
Once an offer has been reported to shareholders for the shallow there could be a counter offer, we may have to borrow some of Divermike's popcorn. :- )
In your example you should say 6.8 + the 3.6 stockprice = 10,4P
Rocketeer,
That's 200 million dollars not pounds with 2.35 billion shares in issue next week and .80 to the $.
Interestingly WHI had the shallows at 8p a few years ago a $200m offer is about 6.8p so $200m could be conservative.
WHI has a full valuation of $2.8 billion for BNG - before WS/ Block 8 were bought.
So if the starting point will be around £200M. The stockprice will be x3 / x 4 so between Minimum price: between 12P-16P
So yeah $200 million could be a starting point, especially as we're told there in talks with multiple interested parties.
I've reasoned three different sale prices for both of the shallows one of which was based on $5 per barrel for our 40m 1P/2P Reserves - all three come out at around $200m.
After reading the WH Ireland note again I see they are pricing the 2P Reserves at a little over $8 per barrel (CASP are now getting around $33 net per barrel for local/RF sales much higher from $20 pboo years ago and when oil was around $60 pboo).
Using WH Ireland's $8 pboo that works out at $320m for 40m barrels of 1P/2P Reserves.
7 years ago Carver said they'd spent $130 million developing BNG and a large chunk of that would have been spent on developing the shallows, even more now 7 years later - $70 million? some of which will have to be factored into the sales price to boot.
So I'm thinking the $200m guestimate could be pretty conservative blowing the carry value out of the water, especially with several shallow wells drilling/ to be drilled again and into the Dolomite, new data could push up the 1P/2P Reserves higher and then there's the 'potential oil' to factor in. CASP can trade oil and may well be able to continue selling the shallow oil on as part of a deal?
So yeah $200 million could be a starting point, especially as we're told there in talks with multiple interested parties.
Current Net Worth £80m - Kuat & Clive want a 10 bagger for £3m bonus.
Caspian Explorer - Seabed foundation laid ready for drilling in Q3 profit $10 -15m, has led to discussions/invitations about other offshore drilling programmes.
Well 155 drilling - readying to tie back to production area via pipeline - information on line.
A5 - Sidetracked ready to start well test 08/06/24 - information online on official Government website.
A7 already drilled to 2150m use data from A5's success to place drill bit in the same zone.
802 & 803 ready to be drilled to production.
MJF being discussed for sale for last few months with multiple parties - $100m a conservative estimate looking at previous and lesser oil field sale.
Block 8 - wells drilled and ready to be tested once licence renewed.
West Shalva - Kuats had a tickle of extra stock.
CTS drilling making profit and getting them farm ins to other fields.
Oil trading group.
People will be buying this all the way up again once the information that is available online is put into a formal RNS.
Down here it is only us buying in.
In Adrianz's A5 Deep Well document on X it refers to ''Objects in the intervals 4,372-4,379m'', which is an interval 'depth' between the already perforated and highly pressurized 63m section (4,331m and 4,394m). The permit for testing this intervals start date is between 8 May 2024 and 6 June 2024.
The 'object' refers to 1.11 million m3 and I presume it refers to a gas quantity of 1,110,000,000 cubic meters of gas, which is equivalent to 17,550,000 barrels of oil - (Doc says - ''permitted volume of raw gas combustion'' so could be a gas column as 1.1 billions barrels is a 7m interval might be a bit too much ;-) (though it probably refers to flaring the gas off the oil?). So it looks like it's relating to flaring?. If it was oil they were referring 1.11 m3 would equate to 6,981,690 Barrels of Oil.
Is this 7m interval a gas zone? Could be.
In the last CASP Q & A session re the A5 Deep Well they said they were going to drill a new 400m sidetrack from a depth of 4,500m (4,500m-4,900m), which is way past the 63m perforated section, very strange when the 63m perforated oil column is between 4,331m and 4,394m even with a gross 105m net-pay column.
We'll soon see what this 7m interval is oil/gas and if it's just part of the 105m net-pay oil column they're supposed to be sidetracking again.
I can't see them only having a 7m target of interest when there's a 105m net-pay oil column, where some 63m of perforated intervals flowed an initial 3,800 bopd.
Anyway who knows, just doodling and thanks to Adrianz.
Cannot copy the document btw.
Mug, post here from now on, it will keep the board free from your nonsensical drivel.
Everyone else already knows, they can read.
Coffeemug,
Not that old chestnut again?
Once again you're incapable of backing up what you say, a common theme with you isn't it.
Let me help you, they perforated the A5 Deep Well 63m between 4,331m and 4,394m so where's this 7m interval that's less pressured i.e. at what depth is it at?
Hmm, I won't hold my breath for an answer and only expect more gibberish from you as per, prove me wrong.
I'm sure we all want to know.
Somm,
if you weren't so completely useless you'd already know this.
Mark Twain has a good quote for when dealing with individuals like you.