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Started: Mesquida, 10 Jun 2024 16:47
Last post: Bombast, 20 Jun 2024 12:16
With due respect to your other comment
The whole reason the company is in the mire today is because it stepped into a market it had no experience in: mid-volume car lighting
They need to hunker down and manage their cash tightly during this prolonged period of high interest rates
I do hope they survive but I fear they will be a zombie company for a good few years yet
DYOR indeed
The Head Office is moving from Ossett to Surrey
I would be very worried if the Mitcham office were to close as they need cash in the UK to meet their obligations to the bank and Pension Fund
Thanks for your reflections but at what point did I say high tech? In fact, I was quite explicit that the current trend in warfare is for cheap, disposable FPV drones, delivering mass. And that these are currently being produced in China, which is hardly a reliable procurement partner for NATO.
They will have to be sourced from somewhere for NATO, and reverse engineering a £40 drone from Shenzhen should not be beyond the wit of man. Carclo has several advantages to be at the forefront of this kind of R&D, and would benefit from billions of pounds of investment in that market from the UK govt if they did. There are not many firms who share those advantages, so they would have a head start if they were to pursue it.
And, if I may speak bluntly too, to suggest that just because one division of the conglomerate is not involved in an area that another is should forestall exploration of lucrative new markets is complete twaddle.
At any rate, I have never said this is anything other than postulation. I am not saying and never have that it is definitely happening. But it would be foolish of Frank and others not to look into it from an R&D perspective at the very least - especially as govt tax credits would cover a good deal of expense in doing so. And, who knows?, perhaps they'll partner with someone who's already done that R&D and offer their production capacity to produce parts. We are talking billions of pounds of new market here that they could easily tap into.
And they are closing their head office. This is not postulation, although you are quite at liberty not to believe me. As is often said on here, Bombast, DYOR.
Where did you hear they are moving their Surrey facility?
Their previous HO was in Ossett and housed a few Finance & IT staff.
Likewise I suspect you are way off the mark with your suggestion they repurpose to drones.
The CTP Division is not involved in aerospace and, speaking bluntly, the suggestion that just because they make technical plastic they can pivot to making hi-tech drones is as facetious as suggesting Lada can make Formula One cars
Surely must look attractive to some of the larger industrial players?
Started: longtimeinvestor, 10 Jun 2024 15:04
Last post: Testudo, 19 Jun 2024 14:38
Feels like this has to go down before it goes up again. Expecting a dip to 17p, 16p, 11p or even - though preferably not - 9p before it really takes off. And that could be explosive - back into the 70s at least, although my l-t target is 200p+.
Indeed was up 30% in last 5 days at one point earlier today and so just been trawling around looking for obvious good news stories to explain the rises..
The april update started the uptrend which was upbeat but not spectacular and positive eps still not expected till 2025 tho recovery of margins is projected to be good..
The Major Holdings RNS's since april show Shroders increasing (overall +2.7% ish) whilst First Equity decrease (overall -3.1% ish) which seems the opposite of what i was expecting.
Debt is coming down so maybe a relief rally or takeover rumours or summat?
Struggling to explain it tbh but happy none the less..
In valuation over the last couple of months, with currently another good gain today.
Long may it last.
Started: WarrenBJunior, 7 Jun 2024 12:01
Last post: Testudo, 11 Jun 2024 09:16
You’re spot on about the deficit. It blew up in 2016 with the Brexit-related collapse in gilts, but they’ve recovered all their losses and more. If the fund managers stuck to their guns (or doubled down?) then the pension deficit that has been this share’s millstone will have vanished. How soon before the dividend is reinstated? (Lol.)
It’ll be fascinating to see what has become of that deficit, like you say. Even if it’s flat (and your analysis suggests that’s very much the worst-case scenario) then supercharged revenue through huge new TAMs (like drones?) would make that incidental in any event.
That was true many years ago but the DB scheme is long closed and the ongoing cost managed.
One big negative of this stock has always been it’s pension deficit , looking at many other DB schemes that could have improved dramatically over the last 12 months looking at the funds it was invested in which have risen over 50% in the last 5 years.
Last post: Testudo, 11 Jun 2024 09:09
You’re right! I’d assumed Ozempic was a pill, not an injection. Very interesting! It seems to me there are multiple exponential growth markets that our investment uniquely can deliver against.
Wishful thinking. But based on how Carclo is already a defence contractor, designs precision optics and delivers injection moulding, three essential criteria for any business seeking to manufacture cheap FPV drones. It really is only a very small pivot to address that vast new market, and there was reference in the recent release to R&D projects aimed at new trends in the aerospace sector. I infer this to mean Carclo has offered to provide support to the UK government’s £4.5bn investment in drone capabilities: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-uk-strategy-to-deliver-drones-to-armed-forces
It’s also helpful it has a plant in the Czech Republic, which has been enthusiastic in its support of Ukraine, as it will not be the UK alone that is seeking to deliver mass in drone capabilities for its military and partner militaries.
If management reads this board, then it would have seen my recommendation to effect this pivot in a post from January last year. I would expect them at least to have explored how to address this new market, because there are very few UK businesses, if any others at all, who can readily deliver the manufacture of cheap drones off a production line using their existing inputs.
They are not making drones but there is once massive market that they might have started producing kit for ,”Weight loss”
These drugs are administered with injectable pens which Carclo have a long history of being a supplier.
The market is worth billions!!!
Testudo, is there any evidence to suggest that Carclo might get involved in the manufacture of drones , or is it just wishful thinking on your part ?
Started: rivaldo, 7 Jun 2024 09:10
Last post: Testudo, 8 Jun 2024 11:55
My broker is showing a buy price of 90p and a sell of 14p, which must be the biggest spread anywhere in the market. Strong rev and earnings in the results announcement (due v soon) should light the rockets under this share. But my view is the best is very much to come.
Healthy buying yesterday and again already today - with a 20k buy at 18p just now.....after a 100k buy at 17p reported late yesterday and a number of other 20k and 10k buys.
Started: Mesquida, 18 May 2024 10:17
Last post: Mesquida, 18 May 2024 10:17
But if you had taken the trouble to do a dummy sale you would have found that the bid was actually 14.2. You really should not take too much notice of screen prices.
Started: Testudo, 2 May 2024 09:22
Last post: MIKODX, 17 May 2024 15:15
I'm a strong believer that MMs are corrupt. SP is 14.75 yet the bid is 13.10 and the ask is 15.50. Now, I understand supply and demand but how do you justify that spread? It's just total market manipulation, the market is corrupt, and anyone that disagrees is highly naive.
You're very welcome Mr T.
Well that *is* interesting. Thank you, Harry, I've learned something here today.
Morning Testudo
It's not being manipulated in the way that you think.
Someone is working an order through an Algo based trading program. Usually they're worked over the day as a percentage of total volume - say 20% of volume. So, if nothing is going on, it won't trade. If someone buys 10k (presuming today it's a sell order, then the Algo will trade 2k on the back of it. Of course that's a simplistic example, and obviously there are way more complex Algos running in the market that have nothing to do with the underlying individual stocks, and more to do with Index Futures and such like.
Also to note. Market Makers won't just sit there and buy scraps if it doesn't suit them. So they'll move price to buy cheaper ( create more margin) or to try find buyers at a lower level so they can get the two way business on.
If a stock ain't trading, the MMs don't make money.
Someone is toying with this share. Look at the share trades – dozens and dozens of sell trades over days, often only amounting to pence at a time, forcing the price down and the spread wider and wider. It's not retail doing it, because the dealing fees would kill whoever tried.
It's always traded very technically, this share, and by that indicator I'd anticipate it will fall to 9p again before its next bounce. If it does, then I expect it will get at least into the 20s. But if it is being manipulated, then how much higher will it be allowed to run? Fundamentally it is worth much, much more. It would be nice if a regulator were to investigate exactly what is going on here, but that is as ever a forlorn hope.
Started: Testudo, 29 Apr 2024 11:49
Last post: Testudo, 30 Apr 2024 12:57
I was a national-newspaper journalist for many years; I suspect Chat GPT has emulated my writing style rather than the obverse. Perhaps a better strategy than to go public myself would be to seek royalties from OpenAI for basing its large-language models on my IP. Seems to have worked for Getty and the AI-image engines...
You're writing style has an AI quality about it.
Perhaps you should float yourse6on AIM - you could be the next big thing!
Kind regards
Harry
Thanks for your interest, Harry, but, no, I did not use Chat GPT. Slightly peculiar question though. May I ask why you ask?
Some intetesting points.
May I ask did you use Chat GPT to help write the piece?
Wise move, because that price was preposterous. I'm content with the size of my holding and won't add more but I haven't been shaken by recent prices either - this is a long-term hold for me. I also think you're right about China, Norfolkian. Speak to any market commentator with geopolitical insight and they say China is uninvestable. The friendshoring/nearshoring/onshoring paradigm has created an exodus of good companies out of China. Not least because China's intrusive recent Counter-Espionage Law essentially risks making criminals of all foreign nationals there. It's lunacy to continue operating from that part of the world because it is entirely incompatible with good corporate governance - reporting on what goes on in your Chinese factories/outlets has now effectively become a criminal offence!
Started: Mesquida, 30 Apr 2024 07:41
Last post: Mesquida, 30 Apr 2024 07:41
Can somebody advise me how i can prevent the rather annoying video "Investing Matters" from appearing everytime i am on this site. It is very difficult to read messages etc. on a moble phone when this video occupies a good percentage of the screen.
Last post: Mesquida, 30 Apr 2024 07:22
Yes, i too was wondering why he asked that
Started: Wigwammer, 26 Apr 2024 08:02
Last post: HarryCaul, 27 Apr 2024 12:05
Personally I think the spread will tighten up when the Market Makers find some institutional business to supply the retail punters. Clearly by the move yesterday there wasn't any sellers down at these levels, apart from the odd scrap here and there. This is what happens when stocks get oversold and the MMs have had no appetite for any book risk.
Market Cap is still small ( yes that reflects inherent risks from the debt carried) however, I don't see any large sellers on the horizon anytime soon now that the bottom is in and the recovery is clearly on the turn.
Also, for one of many of the large industrial players, it would be peanuts to pick them up here and clear the debt..
Great RNS yesterday but lacking specific details leaving investors to fill in the gaps so to speak. Got a quote to buy just under 10p first thing but turned it down. As EoA says the debt is a significant downside here but it won't stop me buying as I am confident the sp will rise over time. Interestingly the sp held its gains yesterday and didn't retrace due to day traders selling into the rise. Another blue day Monday looks likely. ps. pity about the large spread
GLA
This update is transformative
Increased profit margins sounds promising, the market clearly likes the update but lacking in any financial numbers. Spread on share price recently been awful though.
It didn’t show green on IG and Main London, i want to buy .. couldn’t
Missed it, it is already above 10p
Anyway bought some
Last post: mrcalm, 26 Apr 2024 15:21
12.61 to sell. When the heaed see this they will flock in
Possible big buy order as actual bid keeps ticking up
Sorry apple. Just one more.
Bid up to 12.42 now
Mr. Calm 😀
Started: David6576, 26 Apr 2024 09:23
Last post: longtimeinvestor, 26 Apr 2024 13:06
WOW
My low priced purchase from several years ago, suddenly taken off in a single day. Had not in recent times given the investment much thought. Hope it continues.
13.5p paid. Going much higher
Bid rising
3xpecting that 20p sooner
13p paid.. actual bid is rising. This could do very well
Last post: Sidney41, 26 Apr 2024 10:16
The rampers are out in full this morning 😂
Started: Indie07, 26 Apr 2024 09:12
Last post: Indie07, 26 Apr 2024 09:13
Difficult to buy small amounts, definitely transformative
GLAH
always FYOR
Go ballistic…
DYOR
Started: EarlofAim, 26 Apr 2024 08:37
Last post: shamI89, 26 Apr 2024 09:13
Think increasing revenue is key here and that is what this company is doing.If they can increase cash flow then debt can be paid a lot early.Risky investment but can do really well if they manage to pay off debt.
How is this transformative?
, with £30m debt
cash £6m
mms risen this, after few sells this goes down......
bullish rns doesn't match the debt issue
£30m debt
this will take another 5:years to clear....... look at the rns
per year they managed on £4m to clear debt
Started: WarrenBJunior, 8 Oct 2023 14:04
Last post: Hamodeh82, 26 Apr 2024 09:06
Mcap is really small compared to this update. Free float is even tiny , with volume this will be 20p
Looks like a reason to buy..
Carclo’s market in medical devices is projected to grow to over £700 billion which considering they have a valuation of £8 million makes for incredible potential.
If the settlement payment has put a big dent in their debt and their margins have improved the next results updates could be the start of a major upgrade!!
Get in early before the rise.
Started: UltraInvestor, 26 Apr 2024 08:47
Last post: Indie07, 26 Apr 2024 08:47
Could
This be on takeover territory now?
…
Can anyone get a quote to sell?
Started: Sidney41, 18 Apr 2024 12:59
Last post: Sidney41, 18 Apr 2024 13:30
Please Ignore previous post somehow managed to post on wrong Forum. What a Doughnut...
Looking to add but going to hold off until next weeks trading update, See Blackrock has added to holdings in todays RNS
Started: NickRubens, 5 Apr 2024 12:09
Last post: HarryCaul, 5 Apr 2024 13:35
I know, ridiculous news flow for a once half decent company.
Fund raising? New meaningful order wins? Takeover from somewhere? More bad news? Listed in 1998 and hit around almost 500p at one point?
Started: Retired4ever, 2 Feb 2024 12:06
Last post: Retired4ever, 2 Feb 2024 12:06
Did the last results warrant a 35% decline in share price?
How much damage did Phil and Nick do to this company?
Started: mropz, 16 Jan 2024 16:40
Last post: mropz, 16 Jan 2024 16:41
What a strange (excessive) amount of low volume sell trades today, practically all of them below 500 shares each, it's almost as if someone was deliberately trying to lower the bid price???
Started: Mesquida, 6 Dec 2023 16:20
Last post: Mesquida, 6 Dec 2023 16:20
I certainly agree Chrisjse, but obviously Mr. Parker does not ! Sad to see him selling so soon after his purchase.
Started: Sidney41, 30 Nov 2023 14:52
Last post: Chrisjse, 1 Dec 2023 10:32
I would have thought significantly reduced borrowings was very positive!
Suprised this chat is so quiet following interim results, not much positive to take out of that except the aerospace increase, shame it's such small section of the company.
Last post: NickRubens, 30 Nov 2023 10:34
I keep looking in at this company and it's clearly struggling but surviving and limping along. Talk of hoping or suggesting financial year 2025 will bring in more blue chip customer orders when markets are expected to recover.
I think the 'market' was hoping for better and I don't know what needs to be done to turn this around to what looked like better days. Listed company since 1988?
A good achievement in a tough year:
"We made excellent progress on the key strategic goal of improving the Group's cash generation with cash generated from operations of £11.4 million (H1 2023: £0.5 million)"