Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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has one heck of a capital structure
calculate its tangible net worth (not greatly different from zero, no?)
then consider how its tangible capital deployed is financed (loans and pension deficit)
this is fun to watch (even better if I'd shorted)
that talks about impact on banking covenants
first equity increases from c 7 to 8pc
Ha ha spot on Mike, you couldn't make it up!
Clarity on why Nick and Phil left?
If that is a trading update, then they have no trade.
Pointless RNS says nothing new but will tank the share price, maybe directors want to buy more shares ;-)
They obviously didn’t have any solid penalty clauses in the contract !
" 36k and 24k." is I think a huge vote of confidence. We are almost certainly not talking about multi millionaires here, it could easily be a very significant investment for them. In addition to 'William Black/Armstrong Investments Limited'
Schroders have increased their holding to 13% They are no fools!
But there was no need for them to do so, the sp had already stabilised yesterday following the RNS on Wednesday.
I'm not sure where caital losses would come into play given that they would have to sell shares to crystallise such (hypothetical) losses and I can't see them buying with one hand and selling with the other.
I'm sure they'll have the opportunity of share options in the future as befits their positions, however, just like everyone else, I believe, they'd like to see a profit on todays investment and are in the best position to know that's possible/probable.
Perhaps, the fact that Carclo's Enterprise Value (theoretical takeover price) is (according to Yahoo Finance) £47 million and (according to the recent TU) they have a total equity attributable to the equity holders of the company of nearly £30 million, they believe that the company is currently significantly undervalued.
This is undoubtedly a view shared by William Black/Armstrong Investments Limited who've recently increased their holdings in the company by 650,000 shares - confirmed in the after market (6.29 pm) TR1 on Tuesday that was largely ignored because of the RNS on Wednesday.
Hang on. The directors have spent 36k and 24k. Yes that is a lot of money, but no it isn't a huge vote of confidence either.
Had it of been 200k, id be excited. Remember we have been here before, with the last 2 directors buying in at (Saunders) 38p and (white) 41p. I honestly think that sometimes these things are necessary rather than a good investment. It may well be almost a free investment, if using the losses on capital gains allowance. Plus they will get options at some point, so can recoup this money what ever. I dont read anything positive in to recent events at Carclo.
I totally agree Beza, a good point - if I'd just taken over at the helm, I'd have done exactly the same so that, not only did everyone know these things didn't 'happen on my watch', it also creates a watershed/datum for a fresh start.
Now looking to the future, If you take into account that the two main people have just purchased 500,000 shares today between them, that speaks volumes, talk about being 'in the know' and getting in at the right time.
Yes for sure. Can't expect directors to burn £50k and must know that contract loss is not therefore as bad as it may sound. Debating whether to join them and buy some more here.
The director purchases totally 500, 000 shares is ‘food for thought’. Did last weeks update have an element of ‘kitchen sinking’ in it by the new exec?? Recent events have certainly been unsettling for shareholders.
This is an absolute disaster , their biggest customer cancelling a 10 year contract and in their statement they need to find out what the potential compensation might be .
Surely there was a cancellation clause in the contract that stated clearly what that would be , I give up !
I think 'Tooling' will refer to the making of the special moulds for the anticipated new products and is unlikely to be of use to other customers this is why Carclo will have been paid up front for them. There will also have been investment in production machines, extra space and possibly even extra employees but given the recruitment problems I suspect they won't have to lay off many if any there shouldn't be too much of a hit. They should be in a good position if they can win other new business to utilise the extra capacity. There may be a short term cash flow impact as they've probably ordered more raw plastic than they will need in the short/medium term but unless prices drop that would be an advantage longer term. Realistically I think Carclo won't end up much/if any better off than if the 'framework agreement' had never happened, it is the longer term profits that will be missed. The customer is going to be taking a much bigger hit.
Has anyone any idea as to what the likely amount of "an appropriate commercial settlement" would be in an instance like this?
10 million over 10 years = 100 million ----- is 8% - 10% 'appropriate' if so then that's as good as the MC.
Plus we've had tooling for PCR components paid for that we should be able to sell to other companies because whatever happens covid etc. isn't going away, probably explains why there are a good number of decent buys following the initial (standard) reaction to the RNS
the EV/EBIT is still mighty stretched imv
tp 4p for oversold bounce
When was this 5p pre covid?
It fell to under 5p in march 20, in the early days of covid like the rest of the worlds markets.
Interesting to find that Stockopedia have already updated the 2023 and 2024 estimates. Pencilled for 2023 is revenue of £128M, a profit of £2m and eps of 2.8 p/share. For 2024 it’s £155M, £3.3M and 4.5p/share. Regards
Think this goes back to pre-covid 5p level. That’s why I’ve just sold two tranches for a total loss of 14k. Hands down this is the worst investment I’ve made.
The faces of Frank and David yesterday told a story.
Big loss, but not my problem anymore. Onwards.
What would you rather have : someone like PW at ARB telling you in April that the outlook for 2022 and beyond is very positive etc. only for 6 months later ARB's share price to be down by 90 % due to events that could/should have been potentially predictable for them as a risk factor or someone who presents a realistic and factual report on the financial/trading position of the company both now and into the forseeable future?
At least that way you've got a good realistic idea of what you're invested/potentially investing in.
The MM's had a field day on opening this morning because they know how a proportion of investors interpret factual/accurate but also to a degree, news leaning towards the positve side of things, pessimistically.
Nick and Phil’s legacy……..jam tomorrow!
Today’s RNS = more of the same shonk
Wasn't expecting THAT