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tp 5p imv
Zoo Digitals update.
Yes, the company is totally different but we have a story to tell also...jmo
Certainly a serial investor.
Does anybody know if Carclo is in a ‘closed period’? Or, are the board able to purchase shares?
A lot of companies are issuing profits warnings. Does this share price activity suggest Carclo will follow suit?
Very frustrating share I’ve found. Book value ps today vs 2018 and other previous years compares favourably imo. Various metrics compare well to previous years - cash etc, working capital, net profit vs market cap it’s quite frustrating. I find some of these simple comparisons tell a story. This should be at least 40 -50p and seeing improvements yoy I’m my view. However, feels like sentiment isn’t there, also agree on covid traders but deterioration taken greater hit than I anticipated when test excitement evaporated. Hope you are right and this team is successful and is able to land that message effectively.
I think 68p was hit because Carclo came to be seen as a covid play, with punters buying into the dream that abundant tests and injectables would be needed. When that froth dissipated, so did the short term punters. But any investor who believes now the current fundamentals justify a 68p+ valuation - and that the obstacle is simply lack of communication - should be buying the stock in droves IMO. If that sort of premium can be justified then very often the market will find a way of realising it, even if current management cannot. My own belief is that this management team will get there, and I’m happy trusting my investment with them.
It’s about perspective, you may tell the story from the 4p angle and you’ll land on Wigwammer’s viewpoint. I agree, for that aspect of the story the have management navigated successfully. For me, however, the next chapter is about evolving the story, communicating regularly, creating momentum and garnering positive and robust sentiment amongst the shareholders and market. It’s this part of the story that has fallen short of in my view, and evidenced by today’s share price action and the persistent decline over the last year, that of the market too.
To my mind, the board should be developing the story, focusing more keenly on the wording in RNS’, and keeping the market more closely and more regularly informed with how the business is developing.
Communications are so important, and should have kicked on since 68p. There was a real opportunity to drive that positive momentum and it was missed - the story is key, what does the market perceive - the output of that perception is the share price.
I too hope that the future is a glowing one, and to get there the board need to communicate more effectively, so that value is more accurately represented by the sp and market cap.
I trust very few shareholders can be happy with the price action over the last 12 months, yes business has stabilised; that’s old news, what’s next. More Director buys on the way down would have been a material demonstration of confidence imo. But as always I could be wrong, fantastic communicates and regular directors buys may have done nothing.
I agree wholeheartedly with your post Wigwammer. All the same i have many times felt like Cherryhiller. The wording and balance of updates could be improved.
Regarding directors purchases, there are times when a vote of confidence is required, in Carclos case I don’t think its required they have already done their bit. So, I hope there is not RNS in the morning unless it's other than a board member. Jmo
With respect cherryhiller, I couldn’t disagree more. I think the new management team have done a great job growing the business out of the ashes of the wipac problems, solidifying the financial position with both the banks and trustees, and communicating the story to shareholders. The 68p price you refer to is rather selective. Carclo was also trading at 4p in recent years when the market gave it little chance of surviving. Not only has it strongly recovered from those levels but I suspect the future for holders will be a glowing one, in large part thanks to management action. ATB
The decline in the share price here from the May ‘21 high of 68p has been extremely disappointing. The sparseness of communications combined, along with a focus on negatives / headwinds rather than positive tone with a spin on how the business will and is overcoming challenges has provided no support to the share price and significantly eroded shareholder value.
It would have been confidence boosting to see some meaningful director purchases to help arrest decline, give the market confidence and reassure the market that the directors are confident in the business.
Shareholder communications are in drastic need to a new strategic approach, its simply not good enough to communicate twice a year, and the AGM was dull and lifeless, seemed like Nick and team couldn’t wait to get it over with.
Really disappointed with the action here.
I’ve had Carclo on watchlist since selling out last year. Tried a couple of trades around 30, first time had a quick rise to 45 so took profit. Second time still holding the baby.
Started building a proper position by my standards (watch out Goldmans and Schroders!)today.
I can see of course an issue with rising costs but with the mcap back at a mystifying and paltry 15 million these fundamentals strike me as excellent value.
They weren’t exactly token buys by the bod at x3 up from here..
Thought I’d end up buying on an up day at 21/22 so either just got a fantastic bargain or there’s a knife falling my way.
Think it’s a bargain because this sort of mcap previously was pricing this to fail. I don’t see that happening soon given recent “long term opp” comments and the sounder footing the business is now on.
GLA - not expecting massively positive trading statement but as long as trading hasn’t turned disastrous think this is well oversold
Yes very good news. I do notice no exclusion of dividend (unlike the previous Company, Bank & Pension Trustee agreement). Though from the comments in the recent 'investormeet' meeting, the board sounds like it is cautious and in no rush to restart dividend payments. I'm an optimist and hoping for the year after next?
Great to see certainty here now going forward. The ongoing pension contributions are a necessary pain, but the business is now secure and can plan for the "significant long-term opportunities available to the Group" noted today and which could be transformational given the amount of investment already and being made.
As noted elsewhere, the incremental payments kick in above an £18m adjusted EBITDA target in 2024 and 2025. 2022 adjusted EBITDA was £13.1m (£10.8m 2021) and that resulted in an underlying eps of 3.1p - putting the stock on around 6.3x PE - if they can get to anything like £18m EBITDA then the EPS will be significantly higher......
Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/carclo-CAR/share-news/Carclo-plc-Tripartite-Financing-Agreement-Secured/88982541
Says on website mid Oct.
It would have been nice to have a trading statement at or before the AGM.
Tomorrow I guess!!!
Schroders comes to the rescue again....
I guess that the electricity price is the worry here. Although it’s worth tempering that Carclo have factories in other countries too.
Beta
More downward drift. We may need our tin hats over the next couple of days……
Let’s hope we are getting something positive with the AGM/trading announcement.
The company has a lot of potential that is definitely not reflected in the share price.
Did anybody notice the 170 000 share sale (I assume but can’t say for certain) reported after hours. A little unsettling so close to the AGM.
I’ve noticed that the forecast 2024 eps has been downgraded slightly. It was showing 5p per share (house broker forecasts I assume) but it is now been revised to 4.86p/ share.
Well this time around the banking agreement isn't as critical as a few years ago.
Might have been an opportunity to say hello and were doing ok etc.
We should see a good rise in net profit next time as the price increases will be feeding through. I though it was unlucky for the company that these issues came around at this moment in its recovery. What will also help is the reduction in raw material stocks as the supply chain problems ease. Please with the £13m ebitda though...jmo
Good spot Frank and thanks for the info. It’s gone very quiet here. A lot of shares appear to be treading water at the moment. Next key date here is 1st September so not long to wait.
Hi Beza,
New banking arrangements expected to be finalised by July 31 22. As per annual report.
Frank, what makes you say that?
Anybody expecting an RNS tomorrow?