Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
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No idea BBH but I personally would be very happy circa 3 billion and ecstatic to be proved wrong !!! and don't forget of the award we only collect is it 70% ?
The change in short position by Kulvari as reported by TWT on Wednesday was likely to be slight increase from a non reportable position of just under 0.5% in April.
Another thing how sick would you feel if you were one of those red ink sellers who sold your shares on Friday and a judgement came in over the weekend and Burford and Argentina have indicated they're locked into private talks for a multi billion dollar reduced sovereign bond settlement agreement. That actually could happen at anytime, if judge preska has done her home work all along and been really on top of every aspect of this case, and has established all the complex legalities around this case. though more likely a month or so of deliberations. I wouldn't risk selling and buying back in a situation like this , good luck to everyone here.
Those previous estimates we've seen posted here before were expertly prepared by Daniel Fischel , President of compass Lexecon , a consulting firm that specialises in the application of economics to a variety of legal and regulatory issues, they took everything into consideration including the YPF bylaws, including the minimum tender offer price , so the actual amount judge Preska may arrive at may actually be much higher than $12 billion dollars, though as in the repsol settlement, to speed up a settlement award and close this whole commercial fiasco down then burford would be financially prudent to follow repsol's footsteps and negotiate a similar settlement reduction, that way the Argentinean side can say , didn't we do well at getting 50% off that settlement award, and putting some kind of pressure on its own parliament and politicians to ok the award in its own congress and Senate. They actually are getting a good deal ,as most richer nations would be asked to pay nearer the full amount.
As big bigbaggerhungry says FFC what do you think the award will be ? or even the actual settlement amount ? Mind you it's only a guess like the rest of us here, but taking into account the officially expertly published estimates that may be part of the courts actual discovery calculations.
The higher the award the more Burford has for it's negotiating team to bargain with, all we need now is the thumbs up from judge Preska. to be honest it's quite a situation to be in, and basically because of the astronomical amount of money we're talking about, and also the implications for the Argentina state itself. If it issues more sovereign bonds they will have to find around $90million dollars extra a year to service the Interest payments at 3% on even a low ? $3 billion dollar settlement award.
It's mostly a Catholic country so I'm sure there's some candles being lit for a judgement to go their way.
FFC,
So if it’s not 12m
What is your estimate ?
I’ll have a sizeable bet with you that it’s nowhere near 12 billion
Yes Renegade I would expect judge Preska to give a somewhat long verbal initial judgement to bother parties and also a even longer legal detailed written report to both parties and media outlets.
Going on what Christopher Bogart has verbally stated in the past, albeit a off the cuff remark , that this YPF case is really a straightforward case, with the implications being that Argentina compensated the other shareholders but not all of the shareholders, they should have compensated everyone in that 're-nationalization of YPF, with the complications arising from Argentina being a sovereign foreign state, with a somewhat loose cannon of a government at that time, which conducted itself in a recklessness commercial way to placate its genuinely poor anger voters, that hasn't changed only got worse, in fact I believe poverty in Argentina has increased by around 8 times from that time period, mostly food poverty.
I believe we will win this case easily enough and the judgment will be so big it will actually be internationally embarrassing for the Argentinean state not to address or pay down the settlement bill in some way, burford can hold onto this potentially unpaid Settlement amount for 10 years before getting it renewed by a court for another 10 years,
So I ask myself does Argentina want a American court settlement amount of say $12 billion dollars just sitting there for all to see and hinder its needs to borrow even more international funds , or secure a negotiated much lower amount of a settlement with burfords settlement team.
The reason I'm bringing this up is because of the size of this huge potential judgement, if it's not paid then this judgement will be used again and again against Argentina and won't go away ,well for 20 years, with potentially numerous burford grabs for Argentina's assets from around the world, as most countries will uphold a American high court judgement as reciprocal arrangements are enforce from around the world. Because of the size of this potential massive judgement is could easily be around for 20 years if Argentina don't try to reduce it down to a more reasonable manageable and less embarrassing amount, it should be around $12 billion with some good faith negotiating that could come down to $6 billion and I wouldn't be surprised if Burford accepted a quick in your bank account amount of $3 billion . Though somewhere between $3 and $6 billion maybe required to stop this dragging out to long , as burford would like this case behind them and to concentrate on its extensive portfolio of other big private cases.
Though because of the potential $12 billion settlement amount burford is in the driving seat here, so they have to play a tough pay up ASP stance or burford won't even contemplate a 50% reduction in the first place. I'm very confident burford will profit massively here and reward shareholders with a massive 're-rating of its shares.
always DYOR
Gtx,
It depends on how Judge Preska decides to give her SJ decision. She may give it orally and then follow it through with an in depth write up which would support her decision (the quick way) or she may decide to go the hole hog and write the SJ decision in full before bring both parties together and announcing the outcome (the slow way). We just don't know.
Even though the case has been in the courts for 7 years and she and her predecessor have had nearly all the information in front of them for some considerable time, her decision will have to be thorough, unambiguous and decisive so much that the losing side will have little or no substantive grounds for an appeal. IMHO, I would be surprised if she takes the quick and easy option. I am expecting a delay of 1 month plus at the very least but that's more of a hunch than a full blow fact.
P.S. Any delay beyond 2 months will almost certainly bring it close or even beyond our half yearly results (interim).
From Sebastian maril,
One week has passed since the last possible set of briefs were filed in relation to the YPF expropriation case,
At this point, it is my opinion that Judge Preska will not call oral arguments and she will publish her ruling without hearing both sides , " I could be mistaken. "
So that's Sebastian marils current thinking around this case, you would think that after around 7 years everything that could be said at this point was said and if not written down in plain english, with all the required legal documentation identified and validated in the discovery process.
There must be mountains of paper work to go through , though probably only a small amount that actually is needed to conclude this case, desperate people do desperate things and looking at what the Argentinean lawyers are doing imply to me desperation , IE , asking judge preska to state that burford didn't actually own the shares during the share grab /nationalization stunt, Argentina at that time were doing the same thing to other Argentinean companies and in that desperate politically charged process their president Cristina fernandez de Kerchner didn't think through her nationalization actions because she got carried away with her political win and Argentinean flag waving pledges and promised anything to carry favour with the then voters, and in doing so she landed Argentina with a nearing multi billion lawsuit settlement amount, the current Argentinean president seems a somewhat more reasonable thinking person who knows the implications of bad governmental commercial decision making, I don't know how he will address a multi billion dollar adverse American judgement against the Argentine state , but he should deal with it much better than Cristina F. de Kirchner and her angry Donald Trump voter pleasing policies.
Bluewilly yes I'm sure we will all. Buckle up and enjoy the free ride here. This share will at least double even without any YPF case on its books, and should we get a good negotiated settlement then then we will all be very wealthy indeed.
Brilliant safe share to hold , Please DYOR,
Small short opened, probably to shake out the weak holders.