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IIRC Numis got the dividend cut completely wrong and have been sulking ever since. They also refuse to include a return from FTTP because they cannot value it, much like UBS. When the dividend got cut they threw up their arms and said unless you give us the guidance we’re no longer going to try
Maybe I’m being naive, but all analysts were so clever, they would be sitting in the Bahamas sipping ****tails and counting their money
UBS is one of the main banks to advise Vodafone on a number of acquisitions and sales. This broker note smells of deeply vested interests. This is the city network playing games to destabilise BT. Half of these brokers play catch up with the market while the other half are almost always wrong. Cannot believe they get paid to spurt this total crap. Makes me laugh so much. They are so far up their own backsides, it’s unbelievable. Hahaha.
CM
Had to go back when 102 was highlighted below :) I see it's Pete Tong again (Polo Tang) of USB.
Was taken aback at his last calculations based on one single esoteric balance sheet metric. Maybe I need to read the prior release again as find it hard to believe an analyst would use only one metric to calculate earnings rather than confirm an estimate by other means also.
UBS is only 1 of between 19 and 20 in-house brokers aligned with BT. How to decide who is gifted and who is not?
Answer: you can't without testing them individually yourself.
The only methodical, analytical method with brokers individual forecasts is to take the whole lot of them and arrive at their consensus average as on EVERY occasion they have forecasts from the sublime to the ridiculous. And the average forecast SP by the analysts of the in-house brokers is currently showing as 160p - not 102.
Therefore it follows that the only sensible action is to take the consensus average of the whole accredited group and argue/debate the toss if whether their 160 is too high, too low, or about right.
One of them sounding off about 102 is just that - one of them. The further you move amongst them the further of competing claims you will hear about the future SP
Altogether he is out-voted by his contempories. Quite a difference too.
Using an esoteric metric in his calcs suggests an eccentric. If he doesn't bag some winning forecasts soon, both his reputation and his bosses will take note eventually. Like any job you have to deliver or at least achieve an acceptable within reason outcome. Time will tell.
Blackrock disagrees with them, as they closed their short position. It's one thing writing an opinion, it's another putting your money where your mouth is. It appears Numis and UBS are desperate to quell enthusiasm in BT.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-vodafone-towers-ipo-idUSKCN24I1UL
So UBS are leading the Vantage Towers float for Vodafone - quite simply ridiculous that they have put out that note on BT
Numis had a buy target of £3.40 in May 2019. What has changed so much for them to say sell now and £1.10 price target.
Numis have just come out and said switch to Vodafone haha, at least they were honest about their intentions
It’s bizarre. Also no mention of the cpi + price increases which all the telcos have now fallen in line behind. If the competition see it as their mission / in their dna to steal share from BT as someone said on here last week then why this sensible across the board approach to pricing?
Fleccy, I was invested in vodafone partly on the back of UBS Polo Tang's ultra bullish note on them not so long ago, despite thinking on fundementals the value in BT was far greater. I have now firmly decided the guy has a totally vested interest and is literally talking rubbish about BT - Voda is trading on >16X earnings at last check. Its criminal that they are putting out notes like that - saying the tax impact is net negative - what they failed to say was no other competitor is likely to get the super tax benefit to the same degree as BT so releative to peers its a big win. The Chairman story is being spun by some media outlets as some kind of feud, but in reality if it means a faster stake sale of Openreach - its not a negative. Jansen made Worldpay are super efficient company so I prefer his modern approach. He also put his money where his mouth is in terms of share purchases. Some massive games being played here - I will not listen to the brokers. P/E is vastly below 5 year average and BT is a good inflation hedge - that is more than good enough for me as the recovery takes shape. Openreach returns news will ignite the rebound still further. GL
Just read the article, they are clearly having a laugh. Where they come up with 102p, which would give BT a P/E of just over 5, is beyond me. What also baffles me, is the way they dismiss investment in the business as a negative. I think I'll place that analysts opinion, in the section marked Comedy Fiction.