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it was a complete and utter farce this was 3p again very recently.. and it being 4p today is still a total farce.. this should easily be closer to 10p than 5p now imho.. Perenco are not getting involved here for fun.. they're deadly serious about progressing Etinde in quick order, imho.. so roll on FID and massive Bowleven re rate please..
Perenco would never have bought in if this was a dead duck. Hence, there must be some value to BLVN too. The key is getting that FID payment over the line. From there, the future looks quite rosy
moving on nothing, nooooo stock lol.. 8p here we come , higher on Perenco news. 4000 employees. 490,000 boep. 14 offshore subsidiaries.. yup it’s decent
8p a possibility here, much higher on Perenco news
And there was me recently saying this s/p was ludicrously low at 4p.. and I see it on the risers board today at up 5% ish to get to over 3p.. totally farcical imho.. And I steadfastly remain in the high hopes camp here..
As slipanchor mentions below, ducks are lining up one by one .. and, all factors together, the chance of this actually getting to FID now are much much higher than they were for eg a year ago imho.. yet the s/p doesn't even remotely reflect this...
.. but, again, it is what it is...alas.... for now..
T0 add to the post below.
Active in Cameroon since 1993, Perenco operates in the Rio del Rey and Douala basins, with its production last year averaging about 100,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Etinde lies at least 20 kilometres southeast of Perenco’s producing fields in the Rio del Ray basin and some 160 kilometres northwest of its Hilli Episeyo FLNG facility which it charters from Golar LNG.
Will Perenco be satisfied to have an equal share of Entinde with Lukoil while it is operator and will probably be using some of its own infrastructure.?
It has several wells in the same basin and a line going down to Kribi offshore LING Plant, I would imagine they would want full control of the project with a bigger share of the voting rights which could make BLVN'S 25% attractive to Perenco or even Lukoil.
5
I'm viewing the latest RNS as another one of the ducks lined up, still a few more to join the parade.
I guess this is partly good news, but yes look forward to a new licence and then maybe the SP will go up.
About 10 years wasted here so far, will it ever pull back?
Well, that one was a damp squib, roll on Exploitation Licence.
Just reading back here a bit now - minor focus on this only, as lots of holdings and this is relatively not a big bet for me - but apologies to Hamz for not following up on the good point that Perenco could of course look to buy out the other partners interests here. Lukoils interests a big undertaking granted and perhaps valuable to have two big partners involved in development versus one imho, although the Russian angle complicates, granted.. but buying Bowleven out around now would be a small undertaking for Perenco ....while this may easily not happen granted... if it did, an RNS could drop whenever saying the board recommends this offer to shareholders .. which, given COC's entry price and valuation of its share of the assets here, would obviuosly be many multiples of 4p, clearly.. so thats another significant reason for Pi's having a holding here asap..
Altogether, for this still to be 4p ish as i type is farcically low in my mind .. but it is what it is..
Tight ship no leaks.
Still possible for an after hours RNS.
The market doesn't appear to know what direction to move in.
Since both companies are private, I would think a disclosure of the consideration is pretty unlikely. What circumstances do you expect might lead to that? The Bowleven valuation of Etinde is validated by auditor EY. The question is whether some special accounting rule might force them to supercede this with an "arms length" valuation - but even then could New Age or Perenco be compelled to make a disclosure?
* NewAge's share
I wonder if the price paid for NewAge's by Perenco will end up in the public domain. The % share they are buying is i recall pretty much the same % at BLVN's share of Etinde. So if that price gets released i wonder if it could put a rocket under BLVN as some indicator of the true value here. Given the delays in recent years, BLVN's share continues to be valued at virtually nothing - while it's worth remembering that a few years ago the other half of BLVN's share they didn't hold on to was farmed out for $200m.
I hear you Hamz,
There's also official sign off from the Cameroon Government.. nailed on to happen imho as this would not have gotten this far without that government blessing.. but getting government official signatures on a piece of paper may actually happen in good olde Afica time... So Lukoil/Bowleven pre -emeption period expiry the slightly quicker bit, I'd guess :-)
From the last RNS:
''The Transaction is subject to a number of approvals, including the customary regulatory approvals by the Cameroon government and the approval of the Etinde JV partners. Under the terms of the joint operating agreement, both LUKOIL and Bowleven have a 30 day right of pre-emption over New Age's interest.
Notwithstanding the Transaction, Bowleven will continue to be entitled to a final investment decision ('FID') payment of USD25m from its Etinde JV partners which, following completion of the Transaction, would include Perenco.''
I would agree. Next week the 30 day pre-emption period for Lukoil and Bowleven expires, so we might perhaps get another statement saying its 100% official and finalised etc?
I'm surprised there hasn't been more s/p traction off the back of this Perenco announcement.. These guys are BIG, including, and hugely importantly big in Cameroon already.... The chances of Etinde getting to FID in next 6 months has MARKEDLY improved in my mind now... and I'm v surprised that this s/p isnt in the 5 to 10p range off the back of this news..more patience required is fine by me though.. and I now have a genuinely good feeling about this s/p in second half 2022.. and beyond...
And Iain Esau updated:
Https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/new-dawn-perenco-strikes-deal-to-acquire-newages-etinde-asset-in-cameroon/2-1-1232671
Why was Lukoil suspended by the London Stock Exchange?
Lukoil is among 27 firms whose shares were suspended by the London Stock Exchange in early March in order to avoid market turmoil. The Moscow-headquartered firm has not faced sanctions.
Putin ally Alekperov resigns as president of Russia’s Lukoil
www.theguardian.com/business/2022/apr/21/alekperov-r…
Lukoil is still not under European sanctions, but many expect it to be targeted because of the energy giant’s importance to the Russian economy, and the fact that it has already been under US sanctions since 2014. Alekperov, who is also under US sanctions, was among the business leaders summoned by Putin to a meeting at the Kremlin on February 24.
Troubled: Challenged West Africa gas scheme hit by sanctions on Russian partner
Progress at New Age's challenging Etinde development offshore Cameroon has been hit by Ukraine conflict
Come across this information while doing some research, don't know if the sanctions still apply.
5 April 2022 10:53 GMT UPDATED 7 April 2022 10:04 GMT
By Iain Esau in London
A long-delayed gas and condensate project offshore Cameroon that was set to be given the go-ahead this year has been hit by yet another major problem because one of the partners is a sanctioned Russian company.
Chinese-financed player NewAge has been trying to get the multi-field Etinde development to fly for several years, but its complex geology and disagreements with the Cameroon government have always made it a challenge and something of a marginal asset.
Such as this one in the Congo, which like Cameroon, is French-speaking.
https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/article/14213066/perenco-acquires-all-shares-in-d-r-congo-block
In theory, Bowleven or Lukoil have pre-emption rights for 30 days from June 7. I wonder if they will wait until the end of the period, or say its a done deal earlier if there is no interest from either of them? I doubt if Lukoil, currently at 37.5%, would want to go over 50% for fear of potential complications if it ever became sanctioned.