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couldn't resist a dabble c260p lol
I can see how you could look for below book (down c£2)
but the upside from here is tasty enough for me
even down here
I'm holding off
tp 240-250 for a punt
Turnover down by 30% while PBT down almost 77%.
Most metrics look ugly, except for cash.
Guess yesterday RNS was an attempt to inflate the share price prior to these dreadful numbers.
Sold out today, to raise money for a top up elsewhere. Glad of a small profit, but when I went to write it up thought the usual "Am I crazy?". It seems such a solid company, and could benefit from increased infrastructure spend in the months to come. Conversely could get hammered if the economy dives first, which I fear is likely soon. But CrispFin's point is important: if the structural steel facility is already operating at near full capacity that severely limits the benefits from government infrastructure spending increases. That takes out my plus point. Reassured, sadly. Thanks to CrispFin.
Finally, the consistent director sales are worrying.
where's this going to dribble down to? 270-280?
good post (much much higher quality analysis than one expects on LSE!)
yes, they need to invest & yes, the net cash at year end is "inflated"
reckon this is no better than fairly valued (given headwinds)...but with the global markets inflated that's not so bad
Was interested in this because it showed up on an EV / FCF screen that I use. EV of £25m and cash generated of £10m. Its trading a 2.5x. Then I saw the growth in the income statement. What a gem! Or so I thought.
Did a bit of digging and a couple of things take the shine right off:
- Of the c. £12m cash generated from operations this year, £5m of it was from working capital. Going back to 2010, in no year has cash generated from working capital exceeded £1m. The key driver in 2019 is a £3m reduction in WIP over 2018. Nothing has changed in the operations so this has to revert to the mean at some point. I think cash is over inflated at year end.
- There is a comment in the latest accounts - "During the year our structural steel businesses, Billington Structures and Shafton Steel Services operated at near full capacity." I'm not sure the business can grow much further without further very significant capex to expand capacity. This business is at the peak of its productive capability.
Looking over the results from the past 10 years, looks like this is possibly at the peak of its cycle. The comments from management in the accounts suggest the market softening which also hints towards this.
Not saying share price wont increase in the short term - it still looks very cheap, but not for me until I could see a way for it to grow beyond its current level. One I will follow though as looks like a good business so will try to get in when its closer to the bottom of the cycle.
fairly good value...but insiders sold earlier, and it did dip down to 2.30
Any mention of the dreaded 'R' word and investors seem to rush for the exit without thinking it through. Construction has usually been at the forefront of most past economic recoveries and, going by what the UK government have been indicating, it's probable that's what will happen this time.
Financially, BILN is in an extremely strong position and having now got a toehold in Europe to help as well (with most of Europe having come out of lockdown before the UK) I'll be keeping some powder dry for when this panic selling ceases.
rel to mgns, say?
maybe safer to take only £10m of the cash out (since these are the average over year)
and 13m shares (not the 12m used in the report, bizarrely)
so EV/EBIT of c £32m/£6m or 5-6, not 3-4
#mybad
EV of 3-4* trailing EBIT is hardly demanding
dyor, all
You may want to hedge that future risk of recession with some Gold stocks, check out GoldPlat (GDP). They have been a takeover target previously at far lower Gold prices, they also paid dividends at far lower Gold prices.
Can a 20% drop be justified on the basis that world economies might possibly slow down this year because of a possible covid-19 pandemic? Being a long term investor (rather than a fly-by-night trader) I'm prepared to take a chance and stick it out as (imo) a good company investment doesn't suddenly become a poor one simply because of one-off circumstances outside of their control ..... famous last words!
Thanks for your posts, Nicton. I'm considering this, though not till the markets have quietened down a bit, and it's helpful that there are some signs of life - and informed posts with a long term perspective to boot. ATB
Haven't posted for a while (indisposed!) but still holding one of the favourites in my portfolio. Trading update recently indicated everything going well. Full year results in April last year.
This well run company goes from strength to strength - hTTps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/billington-BILN/share-news/Billington-Holdings-PLC-Contract-Awards/80053923. It's hard to believe that a few years ago they were struggling and loss-making with the share price dropping below 50p.
Being a long term shareholder (a rarity these days) does occasionally reap its reward.
It's been a long time coming but worth the wait. I browsed through the Annual Report at the weekend (made for very pleasant reading) which, given the many imponderables concerning the world economic climate, left me confident to stay awhile longer! Given the cost pressures faced by the company last year, it's remarkable that they were able to increase profit margin from 6.0 to 6.5%.
In view of the ongoing economic uncertainty because of the never ending Brexit childishness, a cracking set of figures. Just a taster from the report:
[Highlights
• • Revenue increased 5.2 per cent to a record £77.3 million for the Billington Group (2017: £73.5 million)
• • Profit before tax increased 11.4 per cent to £4.9 million (2017: £4.4 million)
• • Dividend increased 13.0 per cent to 13.0 pence a share – covered 2.58 times by earnings
• • Cash balance of £9.3 million (2017: £8.1 million), providing a solid platform for further growth
• • Strong start to 2019 with robust forward order book and solid pipeline of potential new orders
Mark Smith, Chief Executive Officer, commented:
“We are delighted at the progress which has been made across all our Group companies during 2018 and this has helped Billington deliver a record performance.”
“The level of secured work Billington takes forward into 2019 is unprecedented and ensures that we can look to the future with optimism. Undoubtedly 2019 will present its challenges, however, we are confident it will be another successful and progressive year for the Group.”
“Billington continues to monitor both the challenges and opportunities which may result from the UK’s exit from the European Union. To date we have seen no discernible impact on trading or enquiry levels.”
“2018 has been a successful year for Billington further cementing its position as one of the leading structural steelwork companies in the UK. Consistent, managed growth over recent years provides the Group with a solid platform to further enable it to progress and develop. The Group’s strong financial position will ensure that as opportunities for development arise, we are able to capitalise and ensure further success.”]
Scheduled for next Tuesday (9th).
Today's buying activity possibly a delayed reaction to a tip/write-up (@ masterinvestor.co.uk) on Tuesday.
Seguro Nominee Holdings @ 5%
hTTps://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/billington-BILN/share-news/Billington-Holdings-PLC-Holdings-in-Company/79090788
£41 million contract #BILN They're currently on an EPS of 10 Average company is valued at 20-25 EPS So should easily be double That's just on current figures By my rough calcs they are already at least 25% ahead of last year's revenues £10
Analysts had this at £3.50 before yesterday's £41 millioj contract win
Should be now £10+
Huge upside
£41 million contract + prev £15 million. Paid a dividend last year 11.5p Fully cashed up at £7.5 million This bern missed by thr markets
£41 million contract @ 3:30pm yesterday was missed.
68% held in sticky hands
4 million free float.
Prev £15 million contract win total £55 million
£7.5 in cash
This should be £8/10
No brainner