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Started: solomonkane, 29 May 2024 16:24
Last post: solomonkane, 11 Jun 2024 15:12
LOL - got any clear evidence to back that up?
I would echo the opposite sentiment. Probably the biggest loss this firm has ventured on, namely 50 billion pounds long term.
This deal was unnecessary, ridiculous and surplus to requirements. BHP was about to make a mistake that would have reverberated for yrs - thanks Anglo
I hope it is dead and buried. I only ever see AAL as a trade. Far too much exposure to Africa.
Citigroup reinitiates BHP with 'buy' - price target 2,600 pence
I normally take brokers with a pinch of salt........however agree with Citigroup before another rerate higher :) added more 2321p this morning.
gla
Always have a degree of healthy scepticism for takeover approaches. Could be good could be bad but I want to see evidence of materially enhanced per share prospects otherwise the risk isn't justified.
I thought the game should be up when we saw reports of a possible reverse break fee should approval by the SA govt not be forthcoming. No no no don't get involved in stuff where you don't have control of the situation. Pleased that the deal is off. There will ALWAYS be other opportunities.
Started: Dixie33, 29 May 2024 16:21
Last post: Dixie33, 29 May 2024 16:21
Mike Henry, BHP Chief Executive Officer said:
"BHP will not be making a firm offer for Anglo American. BHP is committed to its Capital Allocation Framework and maintains a disciplined approach to mergers and acquisitions.
While we believed that our proposal for Anglo American was a compelling opportunity to effectively grow the pie of value for both sets of shareholders, we were unable to reach agreement with Anglo American on our specific views in respect of South African regulatory risk and cost and, despite seeking to engage constructively and numerous requests, we were not able to access from Anglo American key information required to formulate measures to address the excess risk they perceive
We remain of the view that our proposal was the most effective structure to deliver value for Anglo American shareholders, and we are confident that, working together with Anglo American, we could have obtained all required regulatory approvals, including in South Africa."
Started: BaldChap, 29 May 2024 16:18
Last post: BaldChap, 29 May 2024 16:18
Starting to look like no takeover unless BHP do something really stupid.
Last post: Davdeladier, 29 May 2024 12:50
China recovery looks good, and Australian relations thawing will provide a boost
Well, I added on Thursday with an average price of 23.16p.
If we retrace back to 2270p ish I will add more positions.
gla
Started: solomonkane, 22 May 2024 15:06
Last post: OldRascal, 23 May 2024 12:57
I’ve followed Woodsmith Mine story too.
Please don’t let the story cloud your judgement. Don’t risk losing more money by placing too much reliance on one project.
OR
AAL is the best buy that BHP could make. It would be absolute madness to let AAL slip through their hands. I am sure that there are many jealous rivals kicking themselves that they did not make a move.
Fortune favours the brave.
At least long term we will be able to afford to eat food instead of chewing on rough diamonds.
What a battle!
Please BHP, please, let this go - this is embarrassing , you do not need Anglo's problems
Started: driftking27, 22 May 2024 15:04
Last post: driftking27, 22 May 2024 15:04
Hi all,
Just observing where stock indices are versus the VIX ( fear gauge ), we can see indices are trading all at new highs , to the VIX trading at low lows 11.
**
…remember this VIX trading theory; When the VIX is low, it’s time to go; when the VIX is high, it’s time to buy.
Throughout history, low VIX readings have preceded stock weakness, and high VIX readings have preceded stock strength.
I can see a mean pullback from these levels.
Get ready to buy when you see the VIX reaching at least 19-20
Started: Toukankahmoon, 11 May 2024 15:19
Last post: Toukankahmoon, 14 May 2024 16:36
You will not be billed for more than the compensation you are awarded.
I had previously been advised of class actions relating to a couple of US companies. When I read the small print, I was on the hook if I joined the action or if I didn't, just as a result of being a shareholder. If they won however, I would get no comp unless I'd signed. If I lost, I would share the bill!! Typically American methodology.
Found that confusing
Regarding SP: what I meant is that a successful action might cause a slight drop in the SP so I might as well get something back by joining the class action.
PS: Not trying to sway you, each to their own. But it looks as if weight of numbers are there for it to proceed to the next stage regardless. If you don't feel that it's right for you to do you will make your own choice.
I haven't decided myself fully yet, still mulling it over. I have a couple of days off this week and will look into it in more depth. HL have been very quick to reply to queries that had so will no doubt help you if you have any questions. GL.
Yes, I've spoken to HL about it. You don't need the HIN number and you'd just fill the form in.
I take your point about BHP but it seems that the CA suit involves 700,000 people so it's going to happen whether we want to protect the sp or not.
Last post: driftking27, 14 May 2024 13:22
I have calculated mine and I was not taxed on my BHP. Last one was 72c in April.
0.72c x 833 I recieved £471.15
That is not taxed in opinion .
I have held and accumulated BHP since 2009.
Thanks fromage.
@ drfiter : "have just calculated my dividend (72c)payout versus what was paid and yes it’s 30% less"
30% less than what? 72 US cents was the full dividend with no WHT and that equates to GBP 0.562983 at the prevailing conversion rate (as in the RNS) and that is what I received in the UK.
Thanks for bringing this to light. I only pay attention to that DWT if buying shares on other indexes.
Bought more on Feb, and have just calculated my dividend (72c)payout versus what was paid and yes it’s 30% less
If you reinvested in London, yes, no matter where the original shares were bought, dividends from the new shares will not have WHT.
Started: driftking27, 14 May 2024 11:35
Last post: driftking27, 14 May 2024 11:35
…it got a kick in the teeth for that slightly raised bid.
Though now AAL are going to be selling some if it’s assets. Wonder if this means that BHP will come back with a proper bid for Anglo.
On the dividend research I have found:
FY 2024, Goldman Sachs is expecting BHP to lower its payout ratio to 55%. This is expected to lead to total fully franked dividends of US$1.45 per share for the 12 months. This represents approximately A$2.27 per share based on current exchange rates, which will mean a dividend yield of 5.1%.20 Apr 2024
Started: solomonkane, 3 May 2024 10:49
Last post: CHEATED, 11 May 2024 09:58
Another advantage in the 'Woodsmith mine' is, as it is so deep in the earth, it would allow massive heat pumps to be installed and possibly leased out to local electricity companies. This cheap electricity move would service all Yorkshire and the profits accruing would cover any further mine expenses.
Long term this would really benefit BHP. China will buy the total POLY 4 hoard. Billions lie in wait for he who dares.
The era of big acquisitions in mining caused a lot of indigestion if I recall. Rio/ Alcan one prime example of the larger co grossly overpaying.
BHP should just concentrate on its own knitting, they do not need Anglo, they already overpaid for Oz.
Started: solomonkane, 30 Apr 2024 22:36
Last post: Reader61, 3 May 2024 10:26
I should have said, sage words, not advice by the way.
Thank you Londoner7, sage advice and appreciated. I have a small pot of cash, burning a hole, earning zero interest in my brokerage account. I think BHP will be its home, I already have some RIO and like yourself, have traded back and forth at various price points.
I shall take your advice on the suggested reading which sounds useful in terms of understanding the longer term.
Best regards
Reader61, if you're looking for advice on trading BHP today, I can't offer any.
But if you are looking for an entry point to a long-term holding in BHP then these bid situation opportunities don't come up very often. I like to invest in companies that offer me an interest in their activities. BHP is the largest miner in the world and at the forefront of the application of technology as the world transitions towards clean energy. This stuff fascinates me and BHP covers it well in their 'insights' publications. Want to know about the practicalities of the transition, then read what BHP has to say. These are the guys at the coal face, not the idealists sitting at a keyboard.
I've held a stake in BHP for decades and I trade - both sides - as the opportunity arises. If you wish to build a holding then take a small stake today - large enough to minimise trading costs - and pound average over time. In 10 years time, whether you average in at £21 or £23 will be an irrelevance.
Incidentally, you could make a similar case for RIO or other large miners. Take a look at their portfolios and direction of travel, and pick one that appeals to your interests.
If they engage in bid warfare, the BHP price will drop from here to offer a more attractive entry point. However, without knowing the bigger strategy alluded to by other posters do I jump or stick?
Started: driftking27, 27 Apr 2024 16:44
Last post: driftking27, 30 Apr 2024 14:43
It’s dropping because people in the know BHP will be paying over the odds while stockmarket indices are trading at roppy levels.
In US, everyone was under impression interest rates coujd be cut by May, that isn’t happening, maybe not in 2024 at all. That is a red flag, there’s gossip that FEDS could be looking at raising rates to bring down inflation as it has started to rise this yr.
Factors for BHP sp direction is not all about BHP, it’s the wider picture out in this big nasty world we’re now living..
Gla
The advisers won’t be paid in shares. I don’t know what BHP are doing. They’ve already racked up tens of millions in advisory fees, payable in cash, on a bid that has zero chance of succeeding and a high risk of failure even if they bid 40% more. Did they not buy a small stake in AAL prior to their bid to mitigate part of the cost ?
If this firm is serious in its offer for AAL then bite the bullet and pay £45 per share and be done with it before the Chinese snap it up. With a lot of mouths to feed, it would be a rare opportunity to make a killing for a very large population.
Why is this share falling? They have made a paper offer .Paper is cheap. NO MONEY HAS BEEN LOST OR ASSETS.
quite an illogical reaction made by fools!
I think I’ll be buying more RIO this yr than BHP, i meant
Last post: IBLONDON, 30 Apr 2024 11:10
I’m getting lots of alerts of investment institutions disclosing their holdings in BHP. Are they loading up,on BHP? Or am I getting it the wrong way round.
Started: driftking27, 27 Apr 2024 16:32
Last post: driftking27, 27 Apr 2024 16:32
What about FIRST QUANTUM LTD in Canada?
They have great Copper assets too, and coujd get them on cheap due to debt they carry.
Started: Doyezee, 24 Apr 2024 22:32
Last post: CHEATED, 27 Apr 2024 10:17
An extra £10 on top of the share offer might be tempting.
BHP COULD NOT PAY ENOUGH FOR AAL. POLY4 IS BETTER THAN A GOLDMINE AND THE LONGIVITY OF THE SUPPLY BEGGERS BELIEF.
Or that BHP up their offer. The risk is they end up overpaying in a bidding war.
Yes, me too. It does seem too big a drop given that AAL will refuse. I hope.
Added this morning 2280p
Happy to add more if there's any further retracement/increased offer
gla
Driftking27
I do hold AAL
ATB
Driftking27.
AAL deal may not happen!!
I'm more than happy to set BUY orders all the way down.
If you like BP gl ...fill ya boots
You’re wasting your time with setting an order.
Try buying 1/3 of your possible total cost your prepared to buy in BP, and top up with the 2/3 if and when it drops 10%. It will happen, as stocks don’t always go up for ever.
This is not environment for orders.
Best of luck.
Buy order set 2245p
2% or so down on a takeover offer - I'll take that any day when you consider that this market can knock 10% off your share price just for mediocre results.
Reasonably hopeful that BHP won't overpay for Anglo.
Started: Max111, 20 Mar 2024 10:34
Last post: Max111, 20 Mar 2024 10:34
India's sponge iron producers seek duties to curb iron ore exports:
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1770352239271379106
Started: driftking27, 21 Feb 2024 14:01
Last post: driftking27, 21 Feb 2024 14:01
Found an article about expectations for 2024 on VALE.
Vale does offer more upside of the 3 iron ore miners, and can produce iron ore at lower cost to 3 I believe
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4662624-vale-outperformance-in-2024-possible
I sold RIO today with 78% gain funnily the year I was born too
Started: driftking27, 20 Feb 2024 11:20
Last post: avocet123, 20 Feb 2024 16:42
For all, posted the same on the RIO board but is important here too.
Just for everyone here to understand, it is pointless to worry about divis getting cut or not, because any divis not paid out get put into retained profits which ultimately increases the SP.
Divi cut or not, is left pocket right pocket really.
All you need to worry about it earnings and profits. Not divis, unless you need the income.
Good opportunity to add more. There is really never a wrong time to add to my rio and bhp holdings.
Interim Divi has been cut by 25% to 72c. It was 90c in 2023
Started: driftking27, 15 Feb 2024 10:56
Last post: driftking27, 15 Feb 2024 10:56
The RSI has sat at 40-45 this week. Maybe due to pending results out soon next week.
I would wait to buy after results drop….
Started: driftking27, 15 Feb 2024 10:40
Last post: driftking27, 15 Feb 2024 10:40
Just thought i share some research on expected dividend payouts at BHP again.
With higher material costs and lower demand there is there is going to be lower profits obviously.
So, as my broker was against me buying into BHP for this reason in 2021, he was right due to continual downward trajectory on divi and eps
I have found this to add for everyone
Divi info
2024 expected 158c compared to 171c 2023 152c for 2025, 142c for 2026.
That’s for BHP plc shares.
There is also an article on fools.co.uk siting future cuts to aid growth for BHP due to higher costs and divi cuts too to read.
As iv been here since 2008/09 I’m not bothered, as I’m just watching another New World create and send us another direction.
Gla
My other trades have been in October here and GOOG, CVX & DGE in Jan
Started: Max111, 2 Feb 2024 07:16
Last post: Max111, 2 Feb 2024 07:16
Citi reiterates US$150 per tonne forecast for iron ore as China pledges more support for its economy:
https://twitter.com/proactive_au/status/1753247375966023833
Last post: avocet123, 27 Jan 2024 08:20
The dam disaster and an associate fine are not new. Why would shorters swoon in 8 years after the event?
FAKE NEWS
(Alliance News) - BHP Group Ltd confirmed on Friday it had not received an order from a Brazilian court to pay billion of dollars in "moral damages" following the 2015 Fundao dam disaster.
The tailings dam was operated by Samarco Mineracao SA, a 50-50 joint venture of BHP and Brazilian iron ore miner Vale SA.
The Melbourne-based miner noted media reports that the Federal Court of Brazil had ordered BHP and its partners to pay USD9.7 billion in "collective moral damages" arising from the Fundao trailings dam failure.
This come after an interlocutory motion was filed by the Brazilian prosecutors seeking the early payment of collective moral damages, which is one of the categories of damages sought in the BRL155 billion, or around USD43 billion at the time, claim, BHP said.
In May 2016, Brazil's Federal Public Prosecution Office sued Samarco Mineracao, Vale and BHP, seeking BRL155 billion, or around USD43 billion at the time, for reparation, compensation and collective moral damages arising from the Fundao tailings dam disaster in November 2015.
BHP said on Friday the court in Brasil had not served it with the reported judgement, and will review the decision to assess its implications, the potential for an appeal and any potential impact on its provision related to the Samarco dam failure.
BHP has made dam-related provisions of USD3.7 billion to cover claims.
Since early 2021, the parties have been engaging in negotiations to seek a settlement of obligations, BHP said, noting that talks are expected to resume next month.
Nearly 10 billion for the 2015 dam disaster.......surely the shorts will be swooning in